Iran wanted to do real damage, and Israel’s response may not be as deterrent as the last one
When Iran attacked Israel in April, it seemed to be making a point – but Iran gave notice of the attack the way it did, and everything was shot down in the air by Israeli and American defenders.
This time it’s different. The Iranians seem to want to do more damage and make a more aggressive point.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps announced that it will take revenge for the killing of senior leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah, and warned that if Israel retaliates, it will also retaliate.
Finally, Joe Biden said to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – “Take the win”, don’t make a big answer – and they didn’t. This time in Israel the situation is very different.
Check out the tweet from former prime minister Naftali Bennett last night, using strong language, saying: “This is the biggest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East.” He argued that Israel should go after Iran’s nuclear facilities, in order to “killably cripple this terrorist regime”.
Now he is no longer the prime minister (although it is said that he will be the next one, so he was making a point to show that he is tough) but it shows a certain situation in the country.
I wouldn’t rule out an Israeli attack on anything at this point – nuclear sites, petrochemical facilities, anything that would cause damage to Iran’s economy.
The situation was always that Iran had advanced defenses in the form of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has a large arsenal of sophisticated weapons, which will be used, in theory, if Iran and its nuclear facilities are attacked.
But a few weeks ago, Israel cut off the head of the Hezbollah movement, destroying part of its weapons, according to American and Israeli authorities; he invaded Lebanon.
Deterring Iran, you could argue, isn’t just over — it’s been shattered into a thousand pieces. So I think the Israelis feel free to do something. And Joe Biden is moving another battle group to the Mediterranean, showing the Iranians that if you hit Israel, you also hit the US.
That’s why people were talking about the fear of the spread of war: the instability, the chaos that comes from everything that’s been happening – now we’re seeing it play out and it leaves us with little room for discussion right now.
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