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China’s Risky Power Play in the South China Sea

Chinese coast guard vessels were overwhelmed and collided with Philippine boats. They bombarded Philippine ships with powerful water cannons. Chinese crew members lowered inflatable crafts, raised alarms and flashed powerful lasers at the Philippine military.

As China seeks to dominate the South China Sea, it is increasingly willing to use force to repel the Philippines, a treaty ally of the United States. In recent months, Chinese tactics have damaged Philippine boats and injured crew members, and raised fears of superpower protests in the strategic waterway.

The new Flashpoint

For months, the latest target of China’s power play was the Philippine coast guard ship, the Teresa Magbanua. The video above was taken by the crew of that ship, when a Chinese patrol vessel collided with it late last month.

This episode was one of four conflicts between the ships of the two countries, in just two weeks. The encounter was not only happening, but it was also happening in a new place – Sabina Shoal, a rich island off the Philippine mainland.

The two countries in recent months have been facing another airfield in the Spratly Islands, Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese ships regularly harass Philippine boats trying to return sailors stationed on a warship off the coast. Now, their quarrel has increased.

These are the places where China has faced the Philippines since 2023.

Note: The locations of the incidents are approximated by the areas covered by the Philippine and Chinese patrol vessels. Other tools include lasers, knives, axes, and stones.

The Philippines wants control over Sabina Shoal, an uninhabited island in its exclusive economic zone. Sabina Shoal, just 86 miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan and more than 600 kilometers from China, is close to an oil-rich area, and Manila sees it as an important trade and security route.

“A hostile China will be able to strangle our maritime trade with the rest of Asia and the rest of the world from the Sabina Shoal,” said Jay Batongbacal, a maritime security expert at the University of the Philippines. Sabina Shoal will make a “good platform for ships that will disrupt Philippine maritime activities,” he said.

Manila stationed the Teresa Magbanua, one of its largest coast guard vessels, in Sabina Shoal in April to try to stop China from what the Philippines sees as attempts to build an island there.

The Philippine Coast Guard has identified piles of crushed and dead corals apparently dumped in the docks as signs of China’s ongoing land reclamation. China has denied the accusations. But the construction and fortification of artificial islands is a key part of how China has asserted its claims in contested waters hundreds of kilometers from its coast.

China, which claims almost the entire South China Sea, says its tactics are necessary to protect its sovereignty. Beijing has rejected a 2016 international court ruling that China’s major claim to the water has no legal basis.

China has accused the Philippines of trying to take full possession of Sabina Shoal by parking a coast guard vessel, just as it stationed a warship at Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing even sent tugboats to Sabina Shoal, which some read as a threat to tow a Philippine vessel.

China did not use guns. Instead, what military experts call gray zone tactics are used, aggressive moves that fail to provoke an all-out war. That includes setting up obstacles, launching water cannons and sailing dangerously close.

But movement can still cause damage: A recent collision between Chinese and Philippine boats, for example, left a three-meter hole in the Teresa Magbanua, along with another Philippine vessel.

Damage to Teresa Magbanua

Philippine Coast Guard via Associated Press

“If the Philippines insists on taking more fish, China will not use all available methods,” said Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a research group based in Beijing. “There is no limit.”

On Sunday, after months of pressure from China, the Philippines said the Teresa Magbanua had returned to port in Palawan. The Philippine statement sought to issue this measure as a follow-up to the completion of the boat operation.

But it acknowledged the challenges of living with a blockade in China preventing the ship from being refloated, saying the crew was “living with daily cuts” and that some needed medical attention.

The Philippines said the ship was damaged after being rammed by a Chinese guard, but indicated that the boat would return after repairs.

Chaos Increases

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has taken a stronger stance against China than his predecessor. He strengthened the country’s alliance with the United States and invited journalists to participate in maritime reclamation activities to highlight China’s actions.

China has called the United States “a major aggressor who is fueling unrest in the South China Sea.” Mr. Hu, an expert in Beijing, said that China was forced to use more difficult tactics because communication with the Marcos administration had failed.

As the two sides move inward, they tangle more and more aggressively.

Disputes between China and the Philippines

In another conflict in June, the Chinese coast guard used axes, tear gas and knives to harass Philippine soldiers on a mission to retake the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese sailors holed up Philippine military boats and confiscated their equipment, including guns.

Eight Filipino soldiers were injured, including one who lost a finger. The Philippine military called it the “most aggressive” Chinese action in recent history.

Source: Armed Forces of the Philippines via Facebook

This episode of June 17 made it clear that the tension must be ended. The two sides briefly reached an “interim agreement” on the Second Thomas Shoal, and the Philippines was able to carry out reclamation work by the end of July. But officials from both countries have disputed the details of the deal, raising questions about how long it will take.

“China’s main strategy is to dominate the South China Sea. We should not expect the decline to continue,” said Rommel Ong, a professor at the Ateneo School of Government in Manila and a retired Philippine Navy admiral. “Unless they achieve that goal, their coercive actions will wax and wane depending on the situation.”

Since October, China’s coast guard has used anti-submarine warfare against Philippine vessels more often than ever before in the long-running conflict. Collisions have also become more common.

In recent conflicts, China has often used water rivals.

Sources: Armed Forces of the Philippines; Philippine Coast Guard; China Coast Guard; Reuters; The story

Whenever the Philippines tries to sail to the disputed islands, ships from the Chinese coast guard, navy, and navy have quickly confronted them.

Some of the Chinese ships are damaging the Filipino boats. Others cross their paths. The ships are circling the Philippine fleet for a tight blockade.

This is how the Chinese fleet stopped the blockade.

Note: Tracks show locations in the last six hours. Location data is not available for all ships in the market. Times displayed are Manila local time.

China, which boasts the world’s largest fleet by number of ships, has sent more boats into the disputed waters in the past year than ever before. The Philippines sends on average fewer ships on its replenishment voyages, which remains unchanged.

Mr. Hu, a China expert, said China’s show of strength in numbers is aimed at deterring the Philippines without using lethal force. “If China sends only a small number of boats to land the Philippines, they may have to use guns,” he said.

China has sent several ships to harass the Philippines for re-exports.

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Note: The data shows vessels counted during the recovery attempt at Second Thomas Shoal.

As of Aug. 27 to September 2, a week-long period, the Philippine military tracked 203 Chinese vessels in contested areas in the South China Sea – the highest number recorded this year.

Tensions have risen at a time when the militaries of China and the United States have limited communications. On Tuesday, the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command held a rare video conference with Gen. Wu Yanan, commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command, which oversees the South China Sea. The United States said such calls help “reduce the risk of misunderstanding or miscalculation.”

During the call, Adm. Samuel Paparo called on China to “rethink its use of dangerous, coercive, and potentially escalating tactics” in the South China Sea. China, in its statement about the call, said only that the two sides had an in-depth exchange of views.

On Thursday, however, Lieutenant General He Lei, former vice president of the People’s Liberation Army’s Academy of Military Sciences, struck a chord.

“If the United States insists on being a conspiracy to pressure others to stand up to face China, or if it has no other choice but to challenge us itself,” he told reporters at a security forum in Beijing, the Chinese people and the People’s Liberation Army will never waver.

Chinese flagged boats are concentrated in Sabina shoal.

Jes Aznar of the New York Times


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