Navigating Uncertainty: Our Region in a Time of Flux
Written by Joseph Chinyong Liow
World Scientific Press, Singapore2024
The era of relentless globalization and the ever-present spirit of internationalism in the post-Cold War context has faded. The Southeast Asian region has also faced constant uncertainty from beyond its borders. This is the central theme of Uncertainty of navigation as this book discusses the most pressing geopolitical, economic, and socio-political challenges that threaten to destroy the peace and prosperity enjoyed by Southeast Asia. It provides a nuanced analysis of the broader dynamics of how geopolitical uncertainty is shaped and managed from the experience of Southeast Asia. From a policy-making perspective, it provides insights into effective self-help strategies for small states navigating a rapidly changing world. This book is an edited collection of Professor Joseph Liow’s 13th lecture seriesth Fellow SR Nathan has been assigned by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) to develop knowledge and perspectives of critical interest in Singapore as a thriving city-state.
The book begins by addressing the complexities of the ongoing US-China rivalry which is widely regarded as one of the most pressing challenges in Southeast Asia. Professor Liow cautions against a simplistic picture of the origins and contours of the US-China rivalry. Emphasizing the constructivist view that ‘power is what countries make of it’ (p.10), Professor Liow argues that the trajectory of US-China relations should be assessed in terms of how the US and China perceive and react to power transitions – looking at other material and and ideological views, namely, the intensity of the security crisis, the spread of nationalist sentiments, the presence of domestic political issues and the personal views of leaders in Washington and Beijing. He concludes unequivocally, that a permanent war between the US and China is inevitable even though the current systemic and domestic conditions will close both of these states in a fierce competition that will sharpen by the day (p.23).
To one’s knowledge, the book’s eclectic framework in examining the US-China rivalry covers many important international, domestic, and individual-level factors that could contaminate Sino-American relations. However, this approach still raises some problems. The main concern here is that the framework gives insufficient attention to how other small states or perhaps institutional actors can influence the course of US-China relations in the short and long term. The relationship between Washington and Beijing cannot be seen in an oversimplified game of two players for the obvious reason that the rivalry is played out on a global scale with other important actors. Accordingly, both superpowers are not independent entities where they have established extensive formal and informal partnerships with small states whose weak but small presence may influence Washington and Beijing’s strategic calculations of each other. This highlights the need to analyze the nested dynamics of US-China relations through the prism of how external third-party actors can positively or negatively impact US-China relations.
The proposed framework of this book also reveals that each of the above-mentioned structural, country, and individual level factors, be it nationality or security issue, affect the US-China relationship through small means. The book does not provide an in-depth examination of how each factor can amplify, inhibit or distort the other factor to produce powerful forces that steer US-China relations in one direction or another. Incorporating these dimensions of analysis will yield a solid understanding of US-China relations.
One notable feature of this book stems from its bold attempt to expand the boundaries within which Singapore can expand its independence amidst the fierce US-China rivalry. Of all the five strategies that Professor Liow outlined in the first chapter, perhaps the most striking in terms of innovation and thought-provoking quality is the need for Singapore to increase its relevance to both US and Chinese interests in the economic, strategic, and trade sectors so that no superpower will find it difficult to force Singapore to choose sides. (p. 18). From a theoretical point of view, there is innovation in this strategy as the existing literature focuses mainly on the preservation of autonomy through anti-institutional means (Loh, 2023) and there is little attention on how small countries can use complementarities vis-à-vis. great power in the way of maintaining its independence at the world level. However, from a policy-making perspective, there may be significant obstacles for small states that are given much less resources than superpowers (Long, 2017) to effectively cultivate compliance to the point that superpowers can no longer take it for granted. Nevertheless, this book provides a useful starting point for strengthening future research efforts on this insightful strategy.
With its discussion of the trajectory of the US-China rivalry, it makes sense that the book also reveals how geopolitical rivalry is reshaping the structure of the current world order. What makes Professor Liow’s account of the changing international order stand out is his attempt to go beyond the usual issue of polarity change to examine how the emerging system of different parts of the world can influence international political behavior and cooperation (p.58). He asserted that states in multi-regional competition will be further challenged to make foreign policy in ways that reflect a range of perspectives, given that many states are vocal and assertive in exercising their regional interests (p.59). This recognition is a sobering reminder to policy makers as diversification is likely to take a long time and it would be wise for states to seek constructive ways to stay ahead of the challenges brought about by a changing environment.
Professor Liow considers what the multipolar order of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) means (p.62). He emphasizes that the lack of interest of the US in global trade and the creation of many nations led by China has posed a great challenge to the position of ASEAN and that ASEAN must accelerate strategically to reinvent itself in ways to maintain its regional unity (p.63). Speaking about ASEAN’s background, Professor Liow is right in explaining how foreign powers come to support ASEAN’s central location because of its low costs and attractive prospects for profit (p.64). However, such an observation opens the author to the criticism of being overly optimistic. Indeed, the great powers and their respective institutions have supported ASEAN centrality, but the most important question is both the consistency and quality of support for ASEAN centrality (Pukhrem, 2024; Zhang, 2023). Here, it should be noted that this support is often from foreign powers where there are many times of disruption where lip service is paid to the central ASEAN region (Acharya, 2017; Beeson, 2022; Li, 2022). In this aspect, it would be especially interesting if the book further explores how the central position of ASEAN can be revised to take seriously the external powers in the region.
The final chapter of the book examines the relationship between identity and politics and how this may affect the domestic stability of Southeast Asian states. It covers two very important subjects which are the recent Israel-Hamas conflict (p.78-96) and China’s revival story (p. 96-103) within Indonesia and Malaysia. Professor Liow provides a systematic account of how each of these two events had coastal origins and yet had tragic consequences. He explains how the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is fueling religious tensions that have further divided the domestic situation in Indonesia and Malaysia to the extent that relations between the non-Muslim minority and the Muslim majority in both countries continue to strain (p.96). In the same way, China’s redemptive efforts based on the work of all overseas Chinese in achieving its goal of national rejuvenation have cast serious doubt on the loyalty of a small group of Chinese who are already facing problems of equal rights among themselves. home countries (p.102). Given the complexity of deep-rooted nationalism in Indonesia and Malaysia, Professor Liow dismisses any presumption that such problems can be resolved.
Despite the book’s well-articulated description of how distant events with strong cultural implications have disrupted domestic politics in Indonesia and Malaysia, it has little to do with how the recent Israel-Hamas conflict and the rise of China would affect Singapore as a multiracial city. Given that the book was commissioned under the SR Nathan fellowship for the development of Singapore studies, this leaves readers wondering if the Singapore case study is deliberately omitted for the serious reasons of not wanting to stir up unnecessary controversy.
Despite the obsolescence of the above analysis, Uncertainty of navigation. Our region is in a time of transition it is an excellent addition to the study of Southeast Asian politics and society. This book’s rich sources of information on the complex challenges and opportunities plaguing the Southeast Asian region make it a highly recommended textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students to gain a solid understanding of the past, present, and future political landscape of Southeast Asia.
References
Acharya, A. (2017). ‘The myth of ASEAN centrality?,’ Contemporary Southeast Asia39(2), pp. 273-279.
Beeson, M. (2022). ‘Are you honorable? ASEAN’s struggle to embrace greater energy competition,’ International Studies Quarterly2 (1), pp. 1-9.
Li, ZR (2022) What does the centralization of ASEAN mean for China? Available at: (Accessed 31 July 2024).
Loh, D. (2023). ‘Singapore’s vision of the liberal international order as a small country,’ International99 (4), pp. 1499-1518.
Long, T. (2017). ‘Small states, big powers? Gaining influence through internal, external, and collective forces,’ Review of International Studies19 (2), pp. 185-205.
Pukhrem, S. (2024) India’s cooperation with ASEAN. Available at: (Accessed 31 July 2024).
Zhang, J. (2023). ‘Rebuilding strategic independence: ASEAN’s response to US-China strategic competition,’ China International Strategy Review5, pp. 73-89.
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