If we put aside that argument, there are opportunities to work with Mr. Trump could take them, although history and recent scaremongering suggest that he might soften his enemies and allies by threatening to take the military if he doesn’t get what he wants. (See: Iran, Greenland, Panama.)
Here’s a scorecard to keep on hand for the first few months.
In the fog of war, a possible deal in Ukraine
There is very little evidence that Mr. Putin is eager for an agreement that will get him out of the war that has already cost Russia nearly 200,000 people and injured more than half a million. But the thought is that you must be looking for an off-ramp. Since his televised debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Mr. Trump has been promising just that — a deal in “24 hours,” or one completed before he takes the oath of office.
Now, not surprisingly, it looks more complicated. His special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is an 80-year-old retired general who served on Mr. Trump’s first National Security Council. , and that this war ends in order to stop the killing of people.” Mr. Trump said he will meet Mr. Putin is “soon,” a significant term, especially since Mr. Biden has not spoken to the Russian leader in nearly three years.
What would a deal look like? First, most of the Biden and Trump officials agree, at least privately, that Russia is likely to keep its forces in about 20 percent of the Ukraine it now controls – as part of a military similar to the one that stopped, but did not end, the Korean War in 1953. A difficult part of any agreement is the security agreement. Who can guarantee that Mr. Putin would not use the ceasefire to regroup, recruit and train new forces, learn from the mistakes of the past three years, and attack again?
Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser of Mr. Biden, says the Biden team has spent the past year “putting structures in place” to provide that security. But Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, suspects that this is all talk. Remembering that no one paid much attention to the 1994 security agreement signed by Ukraine with the US, Britain and Russia, among others, he says that only NATO membership will prevent Mr. Putin from attacking again.
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