The Gaza ceasefire: What can we expect?
Israel and Hamas are thought to be close to agreeing a deal that would end the war in Gaza and see the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
America’s BBC affiliate CBS has been told by Arab, US and Israeli officials that a deal has been reached in principle and, if all goes well, will be finalized by Israel and Hamas this week.
It would be the most dramatic achievement in 15 months of war, which began when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.
What would happen to a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas?
There is hope that the ceasefire agreement will mean an agreement to end the escalating war in Gaza.
It is also expected that there will be an exchange of hostages and prisoners.
Hamas took 251 hostages when it attacked Israel in October 2023. It is still holding 94, although Israel believes only 60 are still alive.
Israel is expected to release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some who have been held for years, in return for their hostages.
How would the ceasefire work?
This ceasefire is expected to take place in three phases, once the agreement is announced.
Details are still being worked out. Until the agreement is finalized, it is subject to change.
The first section
Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said the 33 hostages – expected to be women, children, the elderly and the sick or injured – would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners. Mr Mencer said most but not all of the 33 hostages are believed to be still alive.
The three hostages will be released immediately, a Palestinian official told the BBC, with another exchange taking place in six weeks.
At this time, the Israeli army will also begin to withdraw from the residential areas of Gaza.
The Palestinian official said that detailed negotiations on the second and third phases will begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.
The second stage
In the second phase, the remaining captives – soldiers and reservists – will be released, to restore the number of Palestinian prisoners.
Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel is believed to have agreed to release, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of murder will not be released from the West Bank.
During this phase, Israel will also allow people who are now displaced in southern Gaza to return to the north.
Almost all of Gaza’s 2.3m people have had to leave their homes because of the fighting.
The third stage
The third and final phase will involve the reconstruction of Gaza – something that could take years.
An Israeli official said Israeli troops would remain in a safe zone, or security zone, inside Gaza for any period of the ceasefire.
What are the unanswered questions about the agreement?
Getting to this point has taken months of difficult indirect negotiations, not least because Israel and Hamas don’t completely trust each other.
Hamas wanted a complete end to the war before releasing the hostages, something that was unacceptable to Israel.
A ceasefire will stop the war while its goals are being worked out.
However, it is not clear whether it will mean that the war is over forever.
One of the main goals of Israel’s war has been to destroy Hamas’ military and ruling power. Although Israel has badly damaged it, Hamas still has the ability to operate and regroup.
It is also not clear which of the hostages are alive or dead or if Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those whose whereabouts are unknown.
On the other hand, Hamas demanded the release of other prisoners that Israel would not release. This is believed to include those involved in the October 7 attack.
It is also not known whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone on a certain date, or whether its presence will remain open.
Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile.
The cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that has halted previous wars has been rocked by hostilities and eventually collapsed.
The timetable and complexity of this armistice means that even a small incident can turn into a major threat.
What happened on 7 October 2023 and what happened in Gaza?
Hundreds of gunmen led by Hamas launched an unprecedented attack in southern Israel, breaching the border fence and targeting communities, police stations and military camps.
About 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were returned to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets into Israel.
Israel responded with a major military campaign, first with air strikes and then with ground attacks. Since then, Israel has attacked targets throughout Gaza by land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.
Israel’s offensive has devastated Gaza and led to severe famine, with aid struggling to reach those who need it most. More than 46,600 people – most of them civilians – have been killed in Israeli attacks, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
Source link