The question of whether global warming is increasing is a heated debate among climate scientists. While some have argued that the current rate of warming – which peaked last year – is largely related to fossil gas emissions and therefore consistent with current climate patterns, others have warned that the Earth is more sensitive to fossil fuels. than what was previously thought and that humanity is heading towards a point of no return.
In a recent study, a group of researchers from the University of Melbourne complicated this debate with an analysis of global warming rates and possible causes of regional differences. Their main find: A globe is something it gets hotter at a faster rate, but this acceleration happens unevenly. Surprisingly, densely populated areas with high poverty – big cities like Cairo and Mumbai – are warming less than urban centers in Europe and North America. Why? Researchers have found that the large amount of aerosol particles in the air of heavily polluted cities reflects sunlight back into the atmosphere and, at least in the short term, can have an overall cooling effect on people.
“It boggles the mind,” said Edith de Guzman, an adaptation policy expert at the University of California, Los Angeles’ Luskin Center for Innovation, who praised the researchers for their work. The authors of the paper stressed that the findings should not be taken as a good sign. For others, it may only be temporary. And secondly, protection, such as it is, only comes from harmful pollutants. De Guzman agreed, saying that the acceleration of warming means that “people who are already vulnerable to various environmental and climate injustices will be at greater risk.”
As countries develop economically, their governments tend to adopt policies to clean up pollution, and as the wind blows, vulnerable people will be at greater risk of exposure to dangerous heat. Christopher Schwalm, Director of the Risk Program at the Woodwell Center for Climate Research, gave the example of China, where the government has begun equipping its coal-fired power plants with pollution-reducing technologies such as scrubbing, to prevent soot from escaping the plant. Such measures are good for air quality, he said, but will allow more heat from the sun to enter the interior. The most affected will be those who do not have air conditioners and shaded areas.
“The poorer it is, the hotter it is, the hotter it is the image of all kinds of climate disruption,” Schwalm said. “It’s really hard to do good without doing bad.”
Schwalm explained that the scientific community has about thirty more sophisticated climate models that are considered an “expert panel” on the path to global warming. He believes that the rapid heat assessment is useful because it can help countries plan for climate change and understand how realistic their climate policy goals are – or not.
Last year, the world exceeded the emissions targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, and is on track to do the same this year. Scientists are increasingly calling for the death of the Paris agreement to keep the world below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), in an effort to force policymakers to face the inevitability of increasing heat waves and extreme weather. upcoming events.
The authors of the Melbourne paper provide much-needed insight into what that future will look like and how nations should prepare: Their findings should inspire “targeted climate adaptation strategies” aimed at the world’s poorest urban communities.
This article first appeared on the nonprofit Grist, an independent media organization dedicated to telling stories about climate solutions and a fairer future. Learn more at Grist.org.
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