I was an international observer for both rounds of the 2024 Moldovan presidential election. Voting was held on 20 October and 3 November. Incumbent president Maia Sandu, and former Attorney-General Alexandr Stoianoglo, ran for the second election, Sandu won his second and final term. The international press called it a duel of East vs West and Sandu personified the European side and Stoianoglo from Moscow. Renato Usatîi, (placed third in the first round) has not been very clear about his political leanings. He did not support a candidate. Candidates Victoria Furtună and Vasile Tarlev, who came in fifth and sixth place, are believed to be in the pocket of Russian businessman, Ilan Shor, providing further evidence of deep divisions in contemporary Moldovan politics.
A small majority of Moldovans voted “yes” to include the goal of EU membership in the country’s constitution. This was widely seen as an endorsement of Sandu. Undoubtedly, the voting was difficult which Sandu blamed on Russian-sponsored interference. He cited “multiple vote buying” by secretive Russians. The official OSCE report of both rounds was “very positive”, while noting the misuse of administrative resources and disproportionate pro-Sandu media coverage. Sandu’s second victory was a relief for the Moldovan government.
The election was held against widespread security concerns with Moldovan authorities accusing Russian-trained groups of vandalism. Seeking to silence the public alarm, the USA, UK and Canada issued a statement in June 2024 opposing Russian influence. America also announced sanctions against Gagauzian Governor, Evghenia Guțul. In September 2024, vandalism in the Supreme Court and public broadcaster Teleradio-Moldova were charged with subversion of the Russian government. In October 2024, the state of Moldova said that it interfered with the distribution of Russian oligarch Ilan Shor of 15 million dollars. Security checks have been tightened following an influx of passengers from Russia carrying cash.
Later, Moldova accused Russia of plotting “voting buses” at polling stations at its Moscow Embassy. In response, the EU imposed sanctions on suspected officials from the autonomous region of Gagauzia and a Russian-based organization. The US accused Russia of spending “millions of dollars” spreading disinformation. The Russian Foreign Ministry then accused Moldova of unpublished ballots, thus denying eligible Moldovans living in Russia. There were allegations that they came from Moscow, Serbia and Bosnia by independent groups to create “chaos” during the elections. Olga Roșca, a foreign policy adviser in Sandu, said “Russia is pouring millions of dirty money to hijack our democratic processes…” The EU has sent its CyberRapid Response Team to oversee cybersecurity concerns.
On November 1, Prime Minister Dorin Recean reported death threats to citizens across the country, which he described as an attempt to intimidate voters. The electoral authorities (CEC) reported illegal transport of voters to Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Stanislav Secrieru, Sandu’s national security adviser, reported: “We are witnessing massive Russian interference in our electoral process with the potential to distort the outcome”
Moldovan citizens living abroad faced other security issues in the second round of voting including fake bomb threats at polling stations in several cities in Germany and the UK. The Moldovan government sent a letter on November 12 to Russian ambassador Oleg Ozerov formally complaining about Moscow’s interference. Nevertheless, 1,988 polling stations were opened across Moldova, including 30 for voters living in Transnistria who had to go to the territory administered by Moldova. Promo-LEX observers found 109 incidents at polling stations, electoral chaos, unauthorized persons, breach of privacy, blocking access of observers and improper interference with the vote.
In the presidential debate, Sandu accused Stoianoglo of being a member of the “Trojan horse” for foreign interests that want to control Moldova. He said he will continue his studies in support of the European Union, saying, “Joining the European Union is the Marshall Plan for Moldova”. Stoianoglo said that he actually supports the EU and that “the level of Russian interference in Moldova is very high”. Against this background, Transnistria was probably the most volatile part of the country during the election and it is interesting to explore the different opinions expressed by its citizens. A local pharmacist spoke of life’s challenges in this lone exclamation:
Elections are not a big deal for most people here. On the one hand, they tell us that we are united with mother Russia, but in reality, that does not go further than the presence of a group of Russian soldiers who take the local people as a source of money from whom they beg, borrow or steal anything that is nailed to the ground. At night farm animals are stolen and end up in the kitchens of the Russian brigade. Even those who are Russian nationalists have viewed the Russian army as a vehicle for action and certainly not the liberation war that Moscow’s propaganda claims. This is probably the most unpleasant and isolated place in Europe. Even the Russian flag-waving Mayor has expressed his doubts about Putin and wants to see some kind of determination that gives hope for the future.
It goes without saying that these ideas have been strongly denied by the mayor’s office. I spoke to one of the organizers of the student union, as I knew that Moscow was offering scholarships to study in the entire archipelago of the Federation. I thought this might paint a better picture of Russia’s support for Transnistria. Again the reception was worse than mixed:
Students are not so happy about the election. Yes, we can go to the worst universities in Russia and get full scholarships as long as you are a sportsman, or maybe you are a chess player or you have a special talent that is wanted there. Otherwise, we may actually try our luck in Moldova or the very few who have managed to get funding under EU programs. We are caught as pawns in the middle of a kind of proxy war in which Moscow is scheming against Brussels.
I spoke to a group of women, hoping to get a sense of the divide that might offer a different perspective than the Moscow-Europe rift:
The election deepens old political tensions in the region. We are already very divided among those of us who keep alive the old Russian concept of the palace of culture where we keep something subtle and hidden that still seems to be dear to the old residents of Transnistria. They represent almost half of the women’s movement, as you might say there is a separate movement. In fact, it is more than a diverse set of hobby groups that occasionally meet or perform at local festivals. I think it would be true to say that young women are, without a doubt, very dependent on Europe.
It may not be surprising, given the high levels of residue in the conflict, that there is also a group of environmentalists.
No one really knows what to say because being an environmentalist is almost like arguing with the Russians, so most of the time we try not to talk about the big bear and invent another reason for military-grade pollution everywhere. … Last week there was a cargo plane that returned military waste to a Russian military base. We don’t know exactly what that was about but the teams involved in that flight were qualified as astronauts and no one was allowed near the airport that day.
There are other ways of speaking that clearly enrich Moldovan society. A gay activist told me:
We have not suffered as much as the gay groups in Dushanbe, Grozny or Bishkek. Of course, we remain visible in some way and as long as we don’t push our presence too much we are left alone. You might get teased by the Russian military but I think we can get by mostly by meeting in secret in each other’s homes and staying low key – hiding in plain sight. I don’t think there are any future plans for Gay Pride in Transnistria but then there have been problems with Chisinau, and no one can look to Moscow for gay enlightenment. Our brothers and sisters there are also suffering.
Moldova is a country at a crossroads. There is a split in the different elections in that different environmental, LGBT, women and other voices emerged to influence the elections in Moldova. However, the most common theme is the conflict between Brussels and Moscow, as a large part of its territory remains embedded in Russia. Now President Sandu has the unenviable task of balancing those interests over the next four unpredictable years.
Further Studies in E-International Relations
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