Given the prevailing perception of the Islamic state of Iran as an immediate threat to US national security, Trump’s return to the presidency in January 2025 could have major consequences for the ruling clerical government. Despite its reckless and disruptive behavior and military measures aimed at demonstrating its military might and impressing its perceived enemies, it can be argued that the Islamic state tends to act rationally when it perceives a threat to its political survival. The political pragmatism of the regime, as reflected in its tendency to make temporary political compromises, helps to deter and neutralize any organized US threat to its political existence.
Many compelling signs point to the sadistic and debilitating pressure the incoming Trump administration will exert on the Islamic Republic of Iran. First, in preparing to hand over power to the incoming Republican administration, President Biden has warned President-elect Trump that Iran is a major threat to America’s national security. Second, the assassination attempt on Trump that was sponsored by the Islamic State has led State prosecutors to charge Islamic State operatives with plotting to avenge the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force (Iran’s Islamic State’s top wing). Revolutionary Guard) on January 3rd2020. Third, US Intelligence Services have identified the Islamic State of Iran as a disruptive criminal funder and other material support for anti-Israel protests on US college campuses. Fourth, based on the alarming report of the International Atomic Energy Agency released on Oct 26, 2024, the Islamic State has increased its stockpile of weapons-grade uranium, which shows that Iran is completely defying international demands to strengthen its nuclear program.
Finally, when Trump was president for the first time, the European powers not only wanted to support the US sanctions on Iran but also secretly tried to establish a strategy known as the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) to avoid and bypass the US sanctions. However, with the military cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia in its attack on Ukraine, the European powers have not only reconsidered their ineffective policy of appeasement in Iran but have turned to imposing restrictions on the Islamic State, so it makes sense to retaliate. that the European Union will cooperate more closely with the Trump administration’s growing economic and political measures against the Islamic government.
Undoubtedly, Iran will contribute significantly to the foreign policy of the Trump administration. Given the ongoing bloody war between Israel and the proxies of the Islamic State in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq that has culminated in the conflict between Israel and Iran, the threat landscape of the Islamic State appears to be very different in 2025 than in 2017 when Trump began to think. the office. There are signs that herald the Trump administration’s coming aggressive and confrontational approach toward the Islamic Republic of Iran. President-elect Trump is in the process of putting together the most pro-Israel Cabinet in American history. Other presidential nominees are Israeli hawks and Senator Marc Rubio (Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State), Rep. Mik Waltz (Trump’s nominee for National Security Advisor), Representative Elise Stefanik (a nominee for US Ambassador to the United Nations. ), Mike Huckabee (ambassador-designate to Israel), Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy to the Middle East), and Fox News Host and Even military veteran Pete Hegseth (designate for Secretary of Defense) has in the past made clear his position on the Islamic State in Iran. Although Trump will set the overall tone of the US administration’s new foreign policy, these Iran hawks could have a major impact and shape Trump’s stance on the Islamic government.
In addition, leaked information from the incoming Trump administration points to President-elect Trump’s strong determination to renew and strengthen a high-pressure strategy to dismantle and eliminate the Islamic State’s ability to finance regional proxies and develop nuclear weapons. Finally, it is said that the members of the team appointed by the President have begun to consider plans to destroy the pillars of the Islamic State aimed at overthrowing the clerical leadership in Iran. Therefore, the dismantling of the current theocratic power structure in Iran is intended to be a long-term solution to effectively stop the Islamic State’s nuclear programs, cut funding to state-sponsored militant organizations and organizations, and stabilize the region.
Following Trump’s election victory, factions in the Islamic State have expressed differing views on how to manage what they expect to be a volatile and dangerous time in Iran. While some political leaders are calling for talks, a few hardliners are urging caution and insisting on austerity. The state seems to have encountered a situation where there are no attractive options available. Resisting and challenging the Trump administration’s expectations that Iran dismantle its nuclear weapons program and end its support for regional proxies will be met with harsh sanctions that could deprive the regime of oil revenues. Given Trump’s declaration of support for Israel and Iran’s recent condemnation by the UN Nuclear Agency, this option would be bold and justify Israeli attacks on Iran’s key military and revenue-generating infrastructures and installations.
Despite displaying reckless and demoralizing behavior, the clerical leadership appeared rational whenever they saw an imminent threat to the survival of the state. Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic State in 1979, was known for his stubborn and uncompromising stance on the continuation of the war with Iraq in the 1980s. However, when he was told of a military defeat on the battlefield that could endanger the survival of the Islamic state, he backed away from accepting peace with Iraq, which he described as taking a poisoned glass.
In order to avoid a perceived threat to its political existence, the Islamic Republic of Iran has already indicated that it is ready to negotiate with the incoming Trump administration and make interim agreements. After receiving a stern warning from the current US government, the Islamic State has reportedly sent a written confirmation that it will not seek the assassination of Trump. To cool the tension with the incoming administration, the Ambassador of Iran to the United Nations is reported to have had a secret meeting with Elon Musk President-elect Trump named one of the heads of the newly created Department of Public Works. On November 16, 2024, Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi publicly stated that Iran is willing to continue negotiations on its controversial nuclear program. Finally, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized Iran’s readiness to mend its relations with the West.
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Islamic Republic of Iran is at a crossroads. Challenging the incoming US administration’s demands to stop uranium enrichment and regional meddling will trigger US-led economic, political and military pressures including a debilitating tightening of oil sanctions that could deplete the government’s coffers As the destruction of the Islamic State network in the region is imminent. allies because of Israeli military strikes that have reduced the ability to deter Iran, and given the high Iranian standard. Discontent with a regime that could be transformed into a full-fledged political uprising in the event of a war with Israel, the clerical leadership is ready to retreat from its wisdom and is inclined to make temporary agreements to divert what is to come. a threat to its survival. For Iran, accepting the Trump administration’s demands would be a sensible step to avoid falling off the looming cliff.
Further Studies in E-International Relations
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