As a former US colony, tied to the subsequent neocolonial relationship and the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) of 1951, the Philippines plays an important role in US foreign policy at a time when the US is focused on the growing influence of China and the world. growing territorial conflicts in the region. Military cooperation with the Philippines today is also important for the US considering the termination of the US-Philippines Military Bases Agreement (MBA) of 1947 in 1992 and the need for a new strategic approach that includes the economic and strategic rise of China. The 2025 election will determine who will hold more than 18,000 positions, including the configuration of the Philippine Congress – which influences the country’s foreign policy and sanctions relief programs. It will also pave the way for the upcoming presidential election in 2028 when the current president Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
The US “pivot to Asia,” or “rebalance,” became a topic of conversation after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced it first at the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2010, in Hanoi, and later on the “Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy (2013). The US Pivot to Asia is a shift in foreign policy focus from the Middle East to try to balance the growing influence of China and the threat of North Korea. Although it is diplomatic and economic in nature (Graham 2013), the originator of the pivot was not only the reduced power of the American region but the approach and actions of the Chinese who are more assertive, especially in the South China Sea. This has also strengthened US involvement in the region and strengthened the voice of some US regional allies who see China as a threat more than a partner. China’s growing political importance has prompted the US to strengthen its position, by balancing and communicating with China.
During the pivot to Asia, and the post-bases era, the US-Philippines security relationship has expanded and expanded into Philippine politics. US geopolitical strategic interests make it important that the 2025 elections produce politicians and leaders who continue to approve and commit to the important military cooperation agreements created between the two states, especially the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) of 1998. Launched in 1999, the VFA paved the way for a series of uninterrupted annual performances. Balikatan (“shoulder-to-shoulder”) military exercises, noted in 2001, 2016, 2022, 2023, and 2024, between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the US military.
Training exercises and war games have become an important part of the US-Philippines public security relationship. Balikatan It is designed to strengthen cooperation, capabilities, air surveillance and missile defense systems, increase maritime security awareness, trust and cooperation. The imminent cancellation of the VFA in 2020 by then President Duterte as a foreign policy of the Philippines, and during the time of President Trump, he switched to China and away from the US is proof that political leadership has a direct impact on the direction of the country’s foreign policy.
Besides the VFA, the Philippines adopted the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) as a supplementary agreement to two previous agreements – the 1951 MDT and the 1998 VFA. The ten-year EDCA agreement allows the US to have a strengthened presence in the Philippines. This Agreement was however challenged by civil society and legal experts before the Philippine Supreme Court (PSC) as it allows the US to rotate its troops in the Philippines for a long stay and allows it to build and operate areas in Philippine bases both in the US and Armed Forces of the Philippines. Although the opposition and opposition groups claim that the EDCA violates the Philippine constitution’s provision regarding the establishment of permanent foreign military bases, the PSC ruled otherwise and finally that the EDCA is constitutional in its 2016 decision.
The gradual implementation of EDCA during the term of then President Duterte (June 2016–June 2022) was deliberate due to Duterte’s influence. However, the US and the Philippines agreed to have five EDCA sites or military bases for the US military in 2016, namely: Antonio Bautista. Air Base (Palawan); Basa Air Base (Pampanga); Benito Ebuen Air Base (Cebu); Fort Magsaysay (Pampanga); and Lumbia Airport (Cagayan de Oro). With the post-Duterte foreign policy changes, President Marcos Jr., expanded the scope of the EDCA, including four new bases in 2023, a year after he assumed the presidency. Additional sites are in northern Luzon facing Taiwan (Republic of China), three, and one in Palawan facing SCS. They are: Camp Melchora Dela Cruz (Gamu, Isabela); Lal-lo Airport (Lal-lo, Cagayan); Naval Base Camilo Osias (Santa Ana, Cagayan); and Balabac Island (Palawan).
The selection and identification of the EDCA base without grassroots participation has been poorly received by local government officials. The governors of the provinces of Isabela and Cagayan are jointly outraged by the national government’s selection of their provinces as EDCA armed bases as they may be the target of Chinese missiles and nuclear attacks, and may be caught in a US-China armed conflict. rival. Civil society organizations and groups have also raised the alarm of human rights violations and the confiscation of lands from indigenous peoples due to the hosting of EDCA military operations and training. Understandably, the non-participation of local governments and community leaders in the political process of planning their future in a major project such as the EDCA military program and the public program will not only alienate this program from the people but will also produce conflicting relations between the country and the country. international actors on the one hand, and local government and society on the other.
The political interest of the US in the region cannot be separated from the economic objectives, especially since China has become the main trading partner of many Asian countries replacing the historical connection of Asia with the US and the West and thus helping Beijing to establish strong and diverse relations he says. The Lowy Institute’s 2023 report (Patton and Sato 2023) concludes that China has had greater influence than the US in four categories: economic relations, defense networks, political influence, and cultural influence. Of the ten Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the US is an influential power in only two: the Philippines and Singapore.
Given China’s economic growth in the region, the US is willing to provide a balance. By increasing trade, investment, and development assistance, the US aims to provide the Philippines with an alternative investment path to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In May 2022, the Philippines and the US joined 12 other partners to launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) to strengthen economic partnerships in: trade; supply chains; clean energy, carbon emissions, and infrastructure; and tax and anti-corruption. And more about Global Infrastructure and Investment (GIP) in support of IPEF’s economic, people, and sustainability goals.
In terms of trade and investment, the US-Philippines relationship is relatively strong – $22.6 billion in total goods trade by 2023 and an estimated $10.6 billion in services trade by 2022. The US is also the country’s largest export market and one of the world’s. major foreign investors. In 2024, the US Secretary of Commerce brought 22 US companies to the Philippines to explore trade opportunities, resulting in $1 billion in investment pledges. Any change in the current situation – whether it comes from the Phillppine political system or otherwise – can be deeply disturbing to US investors as this may affect their future business and trade in the country.
Marcos Jr.s declaration in his 2023 State of the World address that “our independent foreign policy – friend of all and enemy of no one – has proven to be successful” is clearly untrue as his foreign policy is biased towards the US. interests. Those elected in 2025 may give us early signs that the path ahead will be one of continued alignment with the US, or one that will take the Philippines towards China’s sphere of influence. The US may therefore view this election as a way to support candidates and policies that are consistent with its long-term vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
References
Clinton, H. (2013). The American Pacific Century. Found in Clinton: America’s Pacific Century and the Pivot to Asia
Graham E. (2013). “Southeast Asia in the US Rebalance: Perspectives from a Different Region,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 35, (3) pp. 305-332 (28 pages): ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of the Philippines; August 30, 1951. Available Avalon Project – Mutual Defense Agreement Between the United States and the Republic of the Philippines; August 30, 1951
Patton S. and Sato J. (2023). “A Summary of Powers in Asia: China and the United States in Southeast Asia,” Available at
Further Studies in E-International Relations
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