4 Reasons Why the Climate Coalition Will Succeed Against Trump – Global Issues
OSLO, Norway, Nov 12 (IPS) – The nation that caused the climate crisis more than any other will leave it to the rest of the world to repair the damage.
That’s a step taken in the US election last week.
The statistics are clear: US emissions to date are 8 times that of China, 25 times that of India and the difference is even greater when we compare the developed states of small islands or Africa. The US will leave it to the victims of climate change to save the planet.
This week the world gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan for UN climate talks, on the eve of the hottest year since the 1200s. The meeting takes place a week after a flood that claimed more than 200 lives in one of the world’s most developed states, Spain. In recent years there have been wildfires in the Amazon, as well as in California, Greece and Turkey. The floods caused a lot of damage in Pakistan and China. Northern India had 52 degrees last summer in places where very few people have access to air conditioning.
From all indications – its time to act. Take action now!
The bad news is that the most powerful leader in the world believes that we should do nothing.
The good news is that this is more important than we often think.
Of course Trump’s victory will make it more challenging to find consensus on finance and other issues in Baku. Leaders will ask why their nation will actually act or pay, if the US does not. Global climate diplomacy will be in jeopardy. We will likely see a rollback of the financial support for domestic climate action in the US introduced by Biden. Trump will withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, possibly even from the UN Climate Convention.
But there is still hope. I am confident that we will win the struggle. Here’s why:
Most importantly it is China, India and Europe that are the climate leaders, not the US, even under Biden. China is a key country in climate action not the US. Last year China contributed 2/3 of the world’s renewable energy. It produced 60% or more of everything green – electric cars, buses and batteries, solar panels and windmills, hydropower and high-speed trains. China is also the largest grower of trees in the world, by far.
India aims to have 500 gigawatts of solar, wind and hydro by 2030. Prime Minister Modi launched “green machines” in India a day, for example, a plan for 10 million houses with solar panels. Indian states like Gujarat have big green ambitions.
Indonesia, the country with the second largest rainforest, has drastically reduced deforestation. Brazil is next.
Europe was once the climate leader, although it is now being overtaken by Asia. The Green New Deal brings green development to Europe.
China, India, Europe and many others are not working on climate to please America. They do it because climate change is a major threat to their nations. They do because climate action is a huge opportunity for green jobs, profits and prosperity.
The world can do well without the US
Second, the forces fighting for a peaceful world are also strong in the US itself.
America’s most powerful countries support climate action. California, New York and many other states will not give up on green efforts, but may fight Trump tooth and nail. California’s economy alone is among the top ten in the world.
Businesses are the leaders, not the government. No big American business was greeted when Trump last pulled the US out of the Paris accord. US businesses see profit and job opportunities in climate action The US tech industry’s efforts to get green energy in its data center are more important than most government programs.
Business will be reluctant to Trump’s desire to curb US climate action. He cited the switch to electric vehicles as a “win for Beijing”. The opposite is obvious of course. If Detroit doesn’t start rolling out electric cars, China will take over the entire world market. China’s domestic auto market is already bigger than America’s, and so is its electric vehicle. Buses, scooters and taxis, half of all new vehicles in China, are now electric.
No one has ever switched from gasoline to electric vehicles. Electric cars are high tech, pollute less, make less noise and enable better driving. The global trend is towards electric vehicles.
American business will diversify to leave the electric car market or green energy completely in the hands of China.
Third, although many are feeling depressed today, nothing is standing still in politics. Most Americans said they didn’t like Trump, even on the day they elected him. The problem with the Democrats – they are less popular.
On election day, Americans approved abortion in a poll after a referendum. Even the most conservative states support European-style social policies in referendums. The minimum wage was just as good. 57% of voters in Republican Florida even wanted to have an abortion up to 24 weeks, which does not start in free Europe.
Every action creates an opposite action. The outrage that Trump will cause around the world and in the US could be just what the soft green movement around the world needs?
The naturalist needs to focus more on people, and we will win.
Finally the election of Trump would ironically create a peaceful world and that would help the climate movement. He has been vocal in his campaign that the US should focus on its borders, not everyone else. The era of Neocons, both Democrats and Republicans, who can’t see a war they don’t like, may be over? Trump may focus US resources on the real needs of American foreign policy, which does not believe like the Neocons that every square meter of the world is a threat to American security that needs to be fought.
The war in Ukraine may end? There is very little reason to believe that Ukraine will be in a stronger negotiating position down the road. Continued war will only bring more death and destruction. Compromise now will be painful for Ukraine but may be the worst outcome. Trump can deliver that and Climate will once again be at the center of world politics.
At the end of the day the election of Trump shows that the US will decline as the world power will grow faster. His protectionist economic policy will make US business uncompetitive. A reduction in immigration will slow economic growth. Trump is unlikely to be able to form an alliance with Biden. Domestic unrest and polarization will continue. The global trend towards a populous world dominated by the Global South will accelerate. After a century of US dominance in world affairs, the rise of Asia is not really bad for the world?
Erik Solheim is a Norwegian politician and former politician. He worked in the Norwegian government from 2005 to 2012 as Minister of International Development and Minister of the Environment, and as Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program from 2016 to 2018.
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© Inter Press Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service
