US ‘will not accept Hamas presence in Qatar’

Senior US officials are reported to have said that Washington will no longer accept the presence of Hamas representatives in Qatar, accusing the Palestinian group of rejecting recent proposals to implement a Gaza ceasefire and hostage agreement.

In anonymous briefings posted by Reuters news agency, officials said the Qatari government had agreed to tell Hamas to close its political office 10 days ago.

Hamas has had a political base in Doha since 2012, reportedly at the request of the Obama administration, to allow communication with the group.

These reports were denied to the BBC by Hamas officials; Qatar has yet to respond.

The small but powerful gulf region is an important partner of the US in the region. It hosts America’s largest air base and hosts many sensitive political talks, including with Iran, the Taliban and Russia. Alongside the US and Egypt, the Qataris have also played a major role in the so-far unsuccessful talks to end the year-long war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

The latest round of talks in mid-October failed to produce an agreement, with Hamas rejecting a proposal for a temporary ceasefire. They have always called for a complete end to the war and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

Israel has also been accused of reneging on agreements. Days after being fired earlier this week, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of rejecting a peace deal against the advice of his security officials.

Dr HA Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), thinks these reports are credible. “I think we are in the last stage before Hamas is forced to move,” he told me. “The writing on the wall has been there for months.”

The call for Hamas to be expelled from Qatar appears to be an attempt by the outgoing Biden administration to force some sort of peace deal before his term ends in January.

If Hamas were to be forced to leave Doha, it is unclear where they would base their political office. A key ally, Iran, could be an option, although the assassination of former leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July suggests they may be at risk from Israel if they settle there. Nor would it give them anything close to the same diplomatic channels in the West.

A likely choice is Turkey. As a member of Nato but also a majority Sunni country, it will give the group a base from which to operate with relative security. Last April President Erdogan hosted the then political chief of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh and his delegation in Istanbul, where they talked about “what needs to be done to ensure the delivery of adequate and uninterrupted humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a just and lasting peace process in the region “.

This move will be greatly welcomed by Ankara, which often wants to position itself as a broker between east and west.

It is thought that the personal safety of the Hamas leadership is now a major concern for the group, which has killed two leaders in less than four months. Along with the death of Haniyeh in July, in October Israel killed Yahya Sinwar in Gaza – he was the mastermind of the attack of Hamas on 7 October in southern Israel.

According to the European Council of Foreign Relations, “Hamas has adopted a temporary model of collective leadership in order to reduce the effect of future Israeli killings”.

Dr. Hellyer thinks that there is no place that “will give them protection from Israeli assassination attempts in the same way that Doha, where America has its largest military base in the region, does”.

This latest move comes as US officials appear increasingly frustrated with the Israeli government’s approach to ending the war. In October, the US Secretaries of State and Defense said that if Israel did not allow more aid into the area within 30 days, deal with unspoken policy “consequences”..

Last weekend many UN officials warned the situation in northern Gaza as a “massacre”. On Saturday, the independent Famine Review Committee said that “there is a high probability that famine is imminent”.

The relationship between Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu has deteriorated during the war in Gaza, due to the increasing pressure from Washington to improve the humanitarian situation for the Palestinian people and find some kind of negotiated agreement.

But, according to Dr. Hellyer, US efforts to negotiate have been seriously flawed.

“By setting red lines and allowing Netanyahu to go without consequence, the Biden administration has successfully encouraged continued impunity. I don’t think this will change in the next 10 weeks,” he said.

Any overreach has been repeatedly rejected by Mr Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition, who will now feel emboldened by the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency.

While whatever path Donald Trump will take in the region remains uncertain, it is thought that he is likely to allow Israel to act on his terms.

Earlier he said Israel should “finish what it started” in Gaza. During his last term in the White House, he took several steps that appear to be very favorable to Israel, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem.

It has also been reported that Trump told Netanyahu that he wanted to see an end to the fighting when he took office.

Either way, it seems that the current US administration will have little influence on the Jerusalem government.

So they may believe that the best way to force some kind of deal is to put pressure on Hamas. Whether it pays off may depend on whether Qatar, such a long-time partner, decides to go along with it.