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Japan’s election: The ruling LDP will fall short of a majority

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to fall short of a single-party majority after snap elections, exit polls suggest.

The LDP is expected to win from a low of 153 to 219 seats, broadcaster NHK said. The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is expected to win from 128 to 191 seats.

The party needs 233 seats to control the house, known as the Diet, meaning the LDP will need to enter a coalition to remain in power.

It previously partnered with the smaller Komeito group, although estimates suggest their combined vote share is still insufficient for a majority, raising uncertainty over how the world’s fourth-largest economy will be governed.

The election was called by new LDP leader Shigeru Ishiba three days after he was elected as the new leader – before he was officially sworn in as prime minister.

It comes after a tumultuous few years for the LDP that saw a “greening” of scandals, widespread voter apathy and record low approval ratings.

The group saw approval ratings below 20% at the start of the year, after a fundraising corruption scandal.

However, the opposition parties have failed to unite, or convince the voters that they are the right way to govern.

The main opposition party had an approval rating of 6.6% before parliament was dissolved.

“It’s very difficult to make party decisions, I think people are losing interest,” Miyuki Fujisaki, a long-time LDP supporter who works in the home care sector, told the BBC before the polls opened.

The LDP, he said, has problems with corruption allegations, “but the opposition is not at all prominent”.

“Of course they are complaining a lot, but it is not at all clear what they want to do,” said the 66-year-old.

For all the indifference, politics in Japan has been moving at a fast pace in recent months.

Shigeru Ishiba took over as prime minister after being voted in by the ruling party after his predecessor Fumio Kishida – who had been in the role since 2021 – made a surprise decision to step down in August.

The move to call the election comes at a time when the LDP is desperate to restore its poor public image. Ishiba – a long-time politician and former defense minister – described it as a “people’s decision”.

A series of scandals has damaged the image of the ruling party. Chief among them is the party’s relationship with the controversial Unification Church – described by critics as a “cult” – and the degree of influence it has had on lawyers.

Then came the corruption scandal of political funding. Japanese prosecutors have been investigating dozens of LDP lawmakers accused of pocketing money for political events. Those allegations – running into millions of dollars – led to the disintegration of powerful factions, the backbone of the party’s internal politics.

“What a terrible situation the ruling party is in,” said Michiko Hamada, who attended a campaign rally at Urawa station, on the outskirts of Tokyo.

“That’s what I hear a lot. Tax evasion is also unforgivable.”

It hurts him a lot at a time when Japanese people are struggling to charge high prices. Wages have been stagnant for three decades — the so-called “lost 30 years” — but rates have risen at the fastest pace in nearly half a century in the past two years.

This month there has been an increase in the prices of thousands of food products, as well as other daily supplies such as mail, medicine, electricity and gas.

“I pay 10,000 yen or 20,000 yen ($65 – $130; £50 – £100) more for food a month (than I used to),” Ms Hamada said.

“And I don’t buy the things I used to buy. I’m trying to save money but it still costs more. Things like fruit are very expensive.”

He is not the only one concerned about the high prices. Pensioner Chie Shimizu says she now has to work part-time to make ends meet.

“Our hourly wages have gone up a bit but not in line with prices,” he told the BBC as he picked up food at a station in Urawa. “I come to places like this to find something cheap and beautiful because everything in regular stores is expensive.”


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