Georgia elections: The ruling party comes with a key vote in Europe

Georgia’s ruling party is leading in key elections focused on the country’s future path in Europe, according to preliminary results.

The Georgian dream party of billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili is at 53%, based on more than 70% of the vote, the central election commission said.

The increasingly powerful party and the four pro-EU opposition parties trying to end the previous 12 years in power both claimed victory because of exit competition.

Georgians turned out in large numbers on Saturday in the South Caucasus province that borders Russia, and there were many reports of vote violations and violence outside polling stations.

Another opposition official in a city south of the capital Tbilisi told the BBC that he was beaten first by a Georgian Dream local councilor, then “10 other men arrived and I didn’t know what was happening to me”.

The opposition described the high-profile vote as a choice between Europe or Russia. Many saw the vote as the most important since Georgians supported independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

As soon as voting ended, an exit poll on pro-opposition TV channels gave Georgian Dream 40.9% of the vote, while the combined total of the four opposition parties was put at 51.9%. But a poll by the main, state-backed channel Imedi TV gave the Georgian Dream 56%.

After some time, the central election commission (CEC) came out with the first predictions. The CEC has been widely criticized for being too close to the government and rushing through electoral reforms before elections without adequate consultation.

If predictions are confirmed, Georgian Dream will secure a majority in parliament, ending the opposition’s hopes of securing a four-block coalition.

Under Georgia’s new system of proportional representation, whoever wins a share of the vote wins a share of 150 seats.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s, told his supporters that “it is a rare event in the world that the same group has achieved success in such a difficult situation”.

However, the opposition leaders had a very different view.

Tina Bokuchava of the main opposition party, the United National Movement said: “We believe that the Georgian public has clearly voted for a future at the heart of Europe and no movement will change that.”

“This is the time. In the future there won’t be that time,” opposition voter Levan Benidze, 36, told the BBC. “I know there are many national dangers – from Russia – but this could be an important moment, a turning point.”

Although Georgia was made a candidate to join the European Union last December, that move has since been put on hold by the EU due to “democratic backsliding” – particularly Russia’s “foreign influence” law targeting Western-funded groups.

The USSR may have ceased to exist more than three decades ago, but Moscow still considers much of the former Soviet empire its backyard and Russian influence.

It will have appreciated the Georgian Dream campaign’s promise of a “proactive” Russia policy, not to mention Brussels’ decision earlier this year to halt Georgia’s EU accession process.

Georgian Dream promised voters they would still join the EU, but also accused the opposition of helping the West open a new front in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Georgia’s neighbor Russia still occupies 20% of its territory after a five-day war in 2008.

Bidzina Ivanishvili’s speech has become anti-Western, indicating that the fourth term of the Georgian Dream may return the country to the Russian path.

The people of Georgia had a simple choice, the founder of the party said after voting in Tbilisi: either a government that works for them, or the opposition of “foreign agents, who will only do the orders of a foreign country”.

He has repeatedly spoken of a “global war party” pushing the opposition to join the war in Ukraine, Georgian Dream (GD) has been labeled as a peace party. For many voters the message worked.

“The most important thing – for me, my family, my grandchildren – is the peace I wish for all Georgians,” GD voter Tinatin Gvelesiani, 55, told the BBC at a polling station in Kojori, southwest of the capital. “Only the Georgian dream” can bring peace, he added.

Election observers reported a series of violations across the country, from overcrowding of ballots at polling stations to intimidation of voters outside.

With less than an hour left before polls close, pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili urged opposition voters not to panic.

“Don’t be afraid. All this is just psychological pressure on you,” he said while speaking live on social media.

The threat turned violent for Azat Karimov, 35, the local chairman of the main opposition United National Movement in Marneuli, south of Tbilisi.

He told the BBC how he felt when his team tried to investigate the fraudulent votes cast by Georgian Dream officials. He also pointed out that voters are being bribed to support the ruling party.

“[A Georgian Dream councillor]he came with 10-20 people… before the police arrived I told him to calm down. Immediately the councilor started beating me.”

On the eve of the vote, a Georgian monitoring group highlighted a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at the election.

The Kremlin has denied meddling in Georgia’s domestic affairs and instead accused the West of “unprecedented efforts” to interfere.

Earlier this year Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, SVR, accused the United States of planning a “Color Change” in Georgia.