In August 2024, Brazil and China celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations. Arguably, these are the two most important economies of the West and East of the Global South, respectively. And although the relationship has not always been incredibly important, in the last two decades both countries have found ways to deepen their cooperation, between private and public actors. In fact, since returning to power, at the beginning of 2023, President Lula of Brazil wanted to continue to strengthen relations with China. He visited the Asian giant, along with a large delegation of politicians and business executives. Bilateral relations have also been invested in additional forums, including the landmark BRICS Summit in South Africa last year. Now that Brazil will host the nineteenth meeting of the Group of Twenty (G20) in Rio next month, President Lula and Xi will have the opportunity to discuss the next steps in what many see as one of the most promising bilateral relations in today’s complex world.
After the intense political crisis that engulfed his country during the last decade, the former steel worker turned president, Lula was able to secure a third term as president. Brazil continues to be very divided politically and ideologically, but Lula has been trying to revive the way of dealing with the country that served him well during his first two terms in office: a comprehensive vision that aims to maintain good relations with traditional partners, such as the USA, while looking for ways to strengthen connections and projects with new markets, nations, and organizations. In this context, and based on Lula’s vision and his diplomatic ambitions, the deepening of relations with China becomes central as it provides an opportunity to consolidate the economic relations that have helped to stabilize the Brazilian economy in the past two decades and also strengthens international projects aimed at reshaping international relations. liberal order, such as the New Development Bank (NDB)
The upcoming G20 meeting will indeed provide an opportunity to expand Sino-Brazilian relations. In addition to meeting in Rio, Lula and Xi will hold bilateral talks in Brasilia, and they seem eager to announce new joint projects. Although the details of this are not available, it should be remembered that when he assumed the role of leading the group about a year ago, Lula announced his intention to prioritize the organization’s goals of (a) reducing world hunger, (b) accelerating the dynamic transition to a more sustainable development model, and (c) transforming the current state of international institutions, such as the IMF and the UNSC, so that developing countries are better represented. In all three of these areas Chinese leaders can provide valuable political support and relevant expertise. Equally, Chinese authorities have indicated that Lula’s priorities for his G20 administration are in line with President Xi’s vision of building a Community for a Shared Future.
In addition to the possible cooperation within the international framework of the G20, Brazil and China have a lot more where they can strengthen the relationship and where new projects may appear. In 2023, bilateral trade reached a record of 157 billion dollars, which exceeds the combined total of Brazil’s sales (104 billion) to the United States and the European Union. Brazil is the fourth largest destination for Chinese investment abroad, representing 4.8 percent of the global total, according to the China-Brazil Business Council (CBBC). This investment has become the core of the goal of modern infrastructure that Lula wants to renew based on his Growth Acceleration ProgramThe Acceleração do Crescimento program – PAC) and the recently announced New Industry Brazil program (Nova Industria Brasil).
There is certainly a lot of interest in Brazil about how Chinese investment can help remake Latin America’s already large but shrinking industrial economy. Although trade between the two countries has grown 35 times in the last 23 years, there is an imbalance between the types of exports from each side – especially those from Brazil to China and the most developed from China to Brazil. Lula has indicated that she would like to change that, and Chinese authorities have signaled that they are open to discussing the issue. High-ranking Brazilian officials are heading to China to try to clarify the details of the plans to be announced at the bilateral meeting, although it is not yet clear whether these projects will be considered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Although Brazil has not yet agreed to participate in the program, Lula has recently indicated that the country should look into the proposal, which has led to speculation about a major announcement on the subject during President Xi’s visit. However, there is no clear indication that Lula has made a decision yet. Some in Brazil, especially in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, are hesitant about the benefits that will be brought by joining the BRI – since China is already investing heavily in infrastructure projects in Brazil, compared to the cost of being seen by the US as ‘having chosen China’s side’, especially if Trump returns at the White House next year. Defending the idea of joining, some voices, especially among Lula’s group, including the influential former Minister of Foreign Affairs Celso Amorim, point out that the BRI goes beyond pure investment as it includes access to the whole field of international cooperation between countries. globe. This last position seems to be gaining momentum in Brazil, but Lula seems to be hedging his bets, waiting for China to offer something else and an invitation, such as finding ways to cooperate in expanding its market for highly valued Brazilian products as well as supporting new Brazilian industrial programs at home and regional infrastructure projects linking South American countries . Chinese authorities appear to be open to taking a closer look at Brazil’s demands, as getting Brazil’s approval would give a much-needed boost to the BRI, which has faced opposition from Europe and the United States over geopolitical concerns.
Beyond trade, bilateral cooperation extends to technological cooperation in the field of satellites (Earth-Resources Satellite project), as well as Artificial Intelligence, semiconductors, telecommunications (5G) and renewable energy. President Xi recently expressed that he sees the future of China-Brazil relations moving rapidly into new, more technologically advanced areas, and, consistent with Brazil’s hopes, that he sees the BRI as an important tool in Brazil’s ongoing industrialization efforts. Similarly, he confirmed Lula’s hope to expand into the ‘people-to-people’ part of bilateral relations. This shows that greater exchange between Brazilians and Chinese people is encouraged by both governments.
In addition to the G20 area and the two countries, Sino-Brazilian cooperation has also taken place in the context of BRICS, especially in terms of coordinating new efforts to change the existing global financial and financial structures. In fact, although during the BRICS Summit in South Africa last year, there was a sensation in the media about the separation of China and Brazil regarding the proposal to increase the number of countries in this group, in the important issues that the organization faced (such as protecting the transformation of political and financial organizations towards a higher presence of members of the Global South) there has been more agreement than conflict between the two countries.
Sino-Brazilian relations seem poised to expand into other fields. The need for diversification is very important in Brazil, which wants to negotiate high value-added products. Nevertheless, this is also gradually becoming a central part of China’s diplomacy towards Brazil. He must never forget that this is not, and will never be, a balanced communication. China has achieved the position of a world power, while Brazil is still a promising developing economy and, at best, a regional power.
There is a growing interest in the integration of cooperation on both sides, but Brazil It is easy to ensure that new joint projects include the transfer of technology and do not lead to new environmental and social consequences. Brazil’s goal of industrialization, especially when it comes to sustainable energy projects, may prove to be one of the most fruitful, feasible, and beneficial approaches. Cooperation in the field of global health also appears to be a promising area for bilateral trade. China has played an important role in dealing with the Covid crisis in Brazil, and both countries have signed that cooperation in this area should also be pursued.
Fifty years of Sino-Brazilian relations show not only the story of economic success, but also the unity of the country that has faced challenges along the way, and is now flourishing. Stronger and more multilateral partnerships between countries seem possible and desirable, but it is important that both domestic globalization and fairness guide such efforts. If the leaders of China and Brazil can find ways to work together for a shared future, much can emerge from the upcoming meetings between their presidents. All eyes will be on Rio and Brasilia next month, as decisions affecting the future of the two giants may emerge.
Further Studies in E-International Relations
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