US President Joe Biden’s visit to Germany on Friday was very short.
But the US president has spent every minute in Berlin trying to make clear that he still has big ambitions in the world, in the final weeks before he leaves office in January. Especially in the Middle East and Ukraine.
European defense has been a cornerstone of Biden’s foreign policy – a stark contrast to his predecessor, Donald Trump, who is now a 2024 presidential hopeful.
In appreciation of his efforts, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier awarded Biden with his country’s highest honor, the special class of the Grand Cross.
The conflict in Ukraine, since the all-out invasion of Russia, is the worst war the continent has faced since the Second World War.
And as it did 80 years ago, Europe looks to the US for leadership combined with military support.
But Biden stressed that more remains to be done: “We must continue until Ukraine achieves a just and lasting peace… We must maintain our support.”
Much will depend on who wins the November US election.
Europe is relying on US military aid to help Ukraine. Berlin is the second largest donor after Washington, although the volume pales in importance compared to its counterpart on the other side of the Atlantic.
Those days of American greatness are expected to end as soon as Biden leaves the White House.
Even if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris becomes the next US president, Congress is expected to focus on other foreign policy priorities, such as China and Taiwan.
As for Trump, during his 2016-2020 administration, relations with NATO – the transatlantic military alliance that has existed since WW2 – have been turbulent.
He is famous for worshiping the “strong man” Russian President Vladimir Putin and he has not yet said publicly that he wants Kyiv to come out victorious in this conflict.
Despite much talk in Nato circles about “Trump-proofing” European defense ahead of the upcoming US election, there is little sign that this has happened or that Europe will be able to “go it alone” effectively if it has to.
After the all-out invasion of Russia in 2022, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, promised a “Zeitenwende”, a historic transition, in which his country would leap from the shadow of its Nazi era and invest heavily in the military to fully contribute to the collective defense of its allies.
This week, German intelligence officials warned that Russia’s continued investment in its military would see it in a position to attack Nato by the end of the decade.
But the reorganization of the German military has become deeply entrenched in bureaucracy. The government has not even approved the next defense budget.
Politicians say Biden is worried about Europe’s decision, with signs of spreading “Ukraine fatigue” as allies in Europe grapple with their own domestic challenges.
Scholz is under a lot of pressure at home from the popular far right and far left, both sympathetic to the Russian narrative, ahead of next year’s general election.
On Friday, Scholz and Biden were joined in Berlin by Ukraine’s biggest donors, the UK and France.
“The Quad”, as these four major Nato countries are known, also discussed Iran and the wider Middle East. In Ukraine, their joint press statement reiterated the decision to continue supporting Kyiv.
The British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, said that Russia is getting weaker and the war is taking up 40% of Moscow’s budget.
He said he and other leaders discussed “what other skills, what other resources and what other resources” they could use to help Ukraine. But he didn’t go into some writings.
However, it has been clarified that the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has asked for his “a plan to win”. Details such as a formal invitation to join Nato and a free hand to use long-range missiles provided by the UK and France. The request has so far been denied.
Kyiv sees an engaged Biden out of office, with Scholz predicting he will lose next year’s German general election to French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron is full of politics at home.
For Ukraine, more help from its biggest supporters can’t come soon enough. Back when facing Russia on its front lines, the country is in a very vulnerable time. The rest of Europe too.
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