How relations between the two countries have deteriorated

India and Canada have expelled their top diplomats amid heightened tensions over the killing of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, marking a new low in historically close ties. Although past disagreements have damaged the relationship, neither has reached this level of open communication.

In 1974, India shocked the world by detonating a nuclear device, infuriating Canada, which accused India of removing plutonium from a Canadian reactor, a gift intended for peaceful use only.

Relations between the two countries cooled significantly – Canada suspended support for India’s nuclear energy program.

However, they did not fire their top diplomats as they did on Monday as the dispute over last year’s killing intensified. Hardeep Singh Nijjara Sikh leader based in Canada was called India by terrorists.

The tit-for-tat dismissal follows Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s claim that Canadian police are investigating the alleged direct involvement of Indian diplomats in the June 2023 murder.

Canadian police have also accused Indian diplomats of involvement in “murders, extortion and acts of violence” against Khalistan supporters. advocating a separate Sikh state in India. Delhi dismissed the allegations as “silly”.

There are about 770,000 Sikhs living in Canada, which is home to the largest Sikh diaspora outside the Indian state of Punjab. Sikhism – rooted in the bloody insurgency in India during the 1980s and early 1990s – continues to strain relations between the two countries. Canada has faced heavy criticism from Delhi for failing to counter the pro-Khalistan movement within its borders. Canada, says India, is aware of local Khalist groups and has been monitoring them for years.

“This relationship existed way down for several years, but now it has come to a standstill,” Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think-tank, told the BBC.

“Publicizing serious and detailed allegations, withdrawing ambassadors and senior diplomats, and issuing scathing official statements. This is uncharted territory, even in this troubled relationship.”

Some commentators agree that this period marks a historic change.

“This represents a significant slide in Canada-India relations under the Trudeau government,” added Ryan Touhey, author of Conflicting Visions, Canada and India in the Cold War World.

A professor of history at the University of St Jerome’s in Waterloo, Mr Touhey notes that the prime minister Stephen Harper’s government’s main achievement was promoting a “long term rapprochement” between Canada and India, bypassing past grievances related to Khalistan and nuclear proliferation.

“Instead, the focus was on the importance of trade and educational ties and people-to-people contacts due to the large dispersion of Indians in Canada. It is also noteworthy that the Khalistan issue seemed to have disappeared since the turn of the millennium. . . Now it has suddenly exploded again.”

The Canadian allegations come at a time when Trudeau appears to be fighting anti-incumbency at home with an election a year away. New survey done Ipsos it shows only 28% overall think Trudeau deserves re-election and only 26% will vote for the Liberals. The foreign minister of India, is in a bad situation words On Monday, it expressed Canadian suspicions of “the Trudeau government’s political agenda focused on vote bank politics”.

In 2016, Trudeau he told reporters that he has more Sikhs – four – in his cabinet than Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India. Sikhs are very influential in Canadian politics, occupying 15 seats in the House of Representatives – more than 4% – while representing only about 2% of the population. Many of these seats are in key battlegrounds during the general election. In 2020, Trudeau had expressed his concern over Indian farmers’ protests, drawing sharp criticism by Delhi.

“I think that if we talk about this problem in detail, it will give the feeling that this is the prime minister who seems to be moving from one chaos to another. “In particular, in the Indo-Canadian community it may be more traumatic than before,” said Mr. Touhey.

He explains that the Indian diaspora in Canada, mostly Punjabis and Sikhs, has become more diverse, now including a large number of Hindus and immigrants from southern India and the western state of Gujarat.

“They are proud of India’s economic transformation since the 1990s and will not sympathize with Sikh separatism. Historically, the Liberals have been politically successful with the Sikh vote, especially in British Columbia.”

However, Mr Touhey does not see that the problem with India is related to vote bank politics.

Instead, he believes that this is about the Canadian government “missing many times the signals from Delhi about Indian concerns about pro-Khalistani elements in Canada”.

“My strong sense is that after decades of begging Canadian governments to address Indian concerns about pro-Khalistani in Canada, they feel they are back to square one – except you have a very different government in Delhi. It is willing to use force, right or wrong, to control perceived domestic threats,” said Mr Touhey.

Mr. Kugelman says the same thing.

“There is a lot at play that explains the rapid deterioration of bilateral relations. This includes a fundamental disconnect: what India views, or projects, as a dangerous threat is seen by Canada as mere activism and dissent protected by free speech. And no one is willing to make concessions,” he said.

All may not be lost. The two countries have a long-standing relationship. Canada hosts one of the largest Indian communities, with 1.3 million residents, or about 4% of its population. India is Canada’s leading market, ranking as the 10th largest trading partner by 2022. India has also been Canada’s leading source of international students as of 2018.

“On the one hand, the relationship is more supported than ever before due to the size of the diaspora, the diversity of those who are dispersed and the increase of bilateral trade, the exchange of students has been increased – although this last point is already- a problematic issue for the Trudeau government again,” said Mr Touhey.

“So, I think that people-to-people contact will be fine. At the highest bilateral level, I don’t think there’s much the Canadian government can do as we enter the final year with elections to be held in the fall of 2025 at the latest.”

However, for now, things look very bad, experts say.

“Delhi is now making the same accusations that Canada has always made against Pakistan. Accuses Ottawa of harboring and sponsoring terrorists fighting against India. But recently, the language leveling these accusations against Canada has been stronger than it has been against Pakistan. And that’s saying something,” Mr. Kugelman said.

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