With Hezbollah’s Revenge Strategy in Disarray, Israel and Iran Brace for War
It has been one year since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel was caught off guard, despite the fact that the Military Intelligence Directorate had issued warnings. Two letters warned the Israeli government, followed by the Shin Bet, which issued similar statements of a possible war planned by Iranian proxies. They assessed that Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial reforms were a weak point generating pandemonium within the Knesset and Israeli society and therefore, the attack was timely. Since then, Israel’s war is not limited to Hamas and Hezbollah; but, to a wide range of military groups across the Gulf in the form of the Axis of Resistance.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq consisting of Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) is also called al-Hashd al-Sha’bi he made speeches criticizing the arrogance of the Zionists in Gaza and Lebanon. These groups are mainly composed of Shias and include the Badr Organization, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib Hezbollah and Saraya Talia al-Khorasan. As far as the intensity of negotiations is concerned, Israel is at war with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, at the same time it is centered on seven sides across the Middle East and most of the fighting is centered in Lebanon. Since September 30, the IDF has struck nearly 1100 targets in southern Lebanon ensuring the destruction of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters and weapons production facilities.
Gradually, the belt of fire created by Iran and its military has been extinguished thanks to a combination of cyber attacks and Israeli air campaigns. Besides, the direct confrontation between Israel and Iran is intensifying. The hope that Hezbollah will resist Israel’s advance in Lebanon did not happen as many thought because of the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, and high-ranking military commanders including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IDF has opened a new field in Lebanon on the western side along the Mediterranean coast while parallel airstrikes are common in the Bekaa valley and south of Beirut. A number of Syrian and Palestinian refugees live in this camp.
Hezbollah’s retaliatory strategy is more remote at the moment, deliberately avoiding close contact with Israeli forces and attacking from afar. For example, the commander of the IDF’s 36th Division observed that most Hezbollah fighters were retreating to death in Lebanon or fleeing the battlefield for fear of being captured or killed. However, some fighters resorted to using mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to counter the attack while others were found sheltering in residential buildings. In addition, the IDF admitted that unlike Hamas, Hezbollah is organized as it operates above ground with the help of long-range weapons systems and asymmetric attacks.
The 188th Armored Brigade of the IDF eliminated Hezbollah’s most respected special forces—the “Radwan Force” in the border areas and destroyed its headquarters in Yaroun and Maroun al Ras. The 35th and 85th forces clashed with Hezbollah fighters, and discovered a seven-meter underground tunnel that housed weapons. The 36th Division fought the insurgents in southern Lebanon and managed to eliminate at least five hundred soldiers. In retaliation for the IDF’s ground operations, Hezbollah has increased its missile attacks targeting new areas in northern Israel. Also, sources connected to Hezbollah say The IDF has been withdrawn from Odaisseh and Kfar Kila. On October 8, it fired 40 rockets at the port city of Haifa causing panic and fear among Israelis. Although most have been prevented, some injuries have been reported in fragments. Another fusillade of 110 medium-range missiles was launched in Haifa and another twenty in Kiryat Shmona where two civilians were killed. This is part of Hezbollah’s strategy to show that its power has not waned – hence the air violence and launching new attacks inside Israel. The IDF’s 91st Division has since reported that it seized an undisclosed location in southern Lebanon that was being used to fire rockets to further prevent missile blasts in northern Israel. However, this does not mean that Tel Aviv has achieved its stated goal of returning its people to northern Israel.
Although the activities of the Israeli army outside its territory are bearing good results, the internal security situation has been deteriorating with the outbreak of violence by the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). On October 8, one fighter of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades stabbed many Israeli civilians and seriously injured them – he was later killed by the army. Apparently, he was originally from Umm al Fahm—a city in northern Israel. Another incident involved four Al Aqsa group fighters who were captured and Yamam’s anti-terrorist unit intercepted their vehicle and shot them in an attempt to end the threat. Finally, the PIJ and the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades attacked Israeli forces in three separate areas with small arms and IEDs. This attack is part of the main goal of the Axis of Resistance which is to keep the West Bank under control so that new developments can keep the Israeli army busy. Also notable is the resumption of Hezbollah’s ability to fire rockets deep into Israeli territory indicating that it has regained control of its missile arsenal and the restoration of its control centers. Regardless of whether Hezbollah has regained control of its aging command structure, its forces have been decimated in addition to disarming them. Although reports on this are unclear.
The Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has officially proposed a cease-fire, although the majority still opposes it, threatening that if the Israeli attack does not stop, the armed group will not stop. Although Hezbollah may seem to deny it, the words of Ibrahim Moussawi, a member of the Hezbollah parliamentary group, do not instill confidence in the current course of war against Israel. As Hezbollah’s leadership falters, its fighters avoid direct confrontation with the IDF, with strong fighting power, Israel may turn against Iran.
The US, Iran, and the Arab states are under secret negotiations to end all wars in West Asia and it is suspected that Israel has been kept in the dark about this plan. In an emphatic move, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian held talks with the government in Qatar where he met with the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia and later, the foreign minister of Tehran went to Riyadh to discuss the growing casualties in Gaza and Lebanon and looked for ways to avoid further escalation. Iran has threatened to break the Saudi-Iran deal if Gulf countries help Israel use its airspace – including attacks on all US military bases in the region regardless of their location. Therefore, Iran demanded the neutrality of the Gulf states, that is, the non-granting of airspace to carry out operations or the use of military bases. Obviously, this guarantee is given.
What would be Israel’s expected plan to deal with Iran? The distance between Israel and Iran is very long, therefore, a ground attack on Israel is almost impossible. First and foremost, Israel will really need air-to-air replenishment and they may go to the enemy’s air defense suppression or (SEAD) with F-35 stealth fighter jets to cover the integrated air defense system (IADS) of Tehran. so that air maneuvers can be carried out quickly with precision strikes, counterattacks, and maneuvers in the air battle area.
Second, they could hit Esfahan as it hosts a military air base, F-14 Tomcat fighter jets, a weapons factory, air defense systems, shelters and a nearby nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. On April 19, Israel attacked Iran’s airspace using quadcopters and missiles to confuse Iranian air defenses and successfully disabled its S-300 anti-aircraft battery. In this case, they may be willing to continue damaging its air defense systems and weapons depots.
Thirdly, the fear of Israel striking Iran’s nuclear facilities is widespread even though it seems impossible for such a dangerous step as it may attract other powers that cause a wider conflict and therefore, the US has refused to accept it. Washington’s reluctance to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities stems from surveillance by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) which concluded that Iran’s Supreme Leader had not reversed a 2003 decision to develop the bomb. However, the hardliner lobby in Iran wants to speed up this process. It is reported that destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities will not be an easy revenge. For example, the nuclear site at Natanz is buried underground and Fordow is buried under what are believed to be hundreds of Israeli bombs. According to military experts, (although this is out of the question) the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) or (GBU-57A/B), a 30,000-pound steel-encased bomb manufactured by the US, could destroy this nuclear site. .
The complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities is unlikely, but a significant reduction in Iran’s nuclear power can be achieved. Since Israel has said that a large-scale attack on Iran would be a deadly surprise, we will have to wait until it happens to provide further analysis.
Further Studies in E-International Relations
