Delta Air Lines says it expects low travel demand during the election. Is that actually a thing?

On Thursday, Delta Air Lines announced that it expects a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter due to the upcoming presidential election, as well as lower demand for back and forth travel.

The Atlanta-based carrier expects the drop to occur within two weeks of the Nov. 5 election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, then return in the weeks following the holiday season.

“We expect a one-point impact on unit revenue from reduced travel demand during the election,” said the airline’s president, Glen Hauenstein, in an earnings statement.

Delta’s third-quarter profits showed a 26% drop. This is due in part to its struggle to overcome the end of CrowdStrike technology this past summer which resulted in the cancellation of thousands of flights.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC, “We expect to see a little bit of excitement in the election, which we saw in the last general election.” He explained that consumers often put off their investment decisions until after the election.

This begs the question: Do election years typically see a drop in travel?

While other airlines have not voiced concern about the drop in revenue in the fourth quarter due to the election, there appears to be some truth to Delta’s claims.

Looking back at 2020, even though it was a pandemic year, travel agencies showed their booking methods and saw a decline every four years. ThePrint spoke with Dan Sherman, chief marketing officer of Ski.com, who said sales during election years can be reduced by more than 30% compared to a normal year.

Virtuoso, a network of travel agencies, also tested this idea in 2019. According to Travel every weekVirtuoso analyzed election year sales data compared to other years and saw a correlation between election years and a drop in travel. Sales in the United States on average increased 14.3% in the year before the election, but only 2.9% during the election year.

Many people during election years are concerned about personal finances and market fluctuations when candidates change offices, Steven Gould, founder of the Travel Advisor Resource Center (TARC), said. TravelAge West. At the same time, a survey of travel consultants published in March found that 68% did not expect the election to affect people’s travel plans—at least, that’s how they felt when sales focused on big events like the Olympics.

Either way, Delta is predicting a very successful fourth quarter due to improved pricing power and good bookings for holiday travel.