My first experience in Rwanda was when I served with the UN in the months after the horrific civil war and genocide in 1994. In the months leading up to July, 1994, a small group of Tutsi, Hutu and Twa middle class, were brutally killed by armed Hutu. soldiers. Soon after, a Tutsi community leader (he who lived in hiding fearing for his life in Kigali) told me, “It was a hundred days of mass killings and incomparable cannibalism, mass rape and attacks on women, and followed by tens of thousands of days of stealth attacks and terror, where all people in Rwanda were sleeping in such a terrible mess”. I returned for several subsequent elections, including the July 2024 one.
In an election that was criticized for dismissing the real opposition, incumbent President Kagame was proudly elected for a fourth term. If the figures provided by the Rwanda Electoral Commission are to be believed, Kagame received over 99% of the votes and 98.2% of the votes. He was then officially anointed to continue ruling on August 11. This writer spoke to a motley crew of what might appear to be political opposition, behind this unanimous victory. As you might expect the opposition was angry and unconvinced. One person told me under confidential conditions:
We’re worse than a dictatorship – this man doesn’t even have an immediate succession plan and the only way he’ll ever be stopped is by a bullet – the way he forced his way into power. Things have never been so far away, and it breaks our hearts to know that there is no hope.
As one dissident admitted in our closed-door meeting in the church hall, Kagame had a way of gaining his power:
A 2015 referendum approved a constitutional amendment that would have allowed him to run for a third term in 2017, as well as shorten presidential terms from seven to five years. This was a form of concealment to weaken the secret by which the one in charge was stealing his way to stay in control forever. Again, nothing was done about it. He publicly told the French Ambassador in front of the French Press that he intends to run for president again in the 2024 elections, even though he has served three terms in office, and there was very little opposition. Even the EU said very little at the time.
A prominent Tutsi statesman summed up the situation that the recent elections have brought us together:
Kagame’s rule is not only legitimized but with the July 2024 election he has taken another step to position himself as one of Africa’s old-style leaders who most of us thought were ghosts of a painful past. One of the leading think tanks, Freedom House, describes Kagame as a dictator who orders endless levels of surveillance, intimidation, torture and executions or suspected executions of exiled dissidents. Another top international organization, Human Rights Watch shows the widespread extent to which Kagame’s forces have “arrested and intimidated political opponents.
Freedom House described the July 2024 elections in Rwanda as completely flawed, citing “increased voting, political intimidation, the elimination or silencing or arrest of opposition leaders and undemocratic practices. Kagame announced his bid for the Presidency on 20 September 2023, saying “I am happy with the confidence the people of Rwanda have shown in me. I will always serve them, more if I can”. Kagame’s campaign has been endorsed by all coalitions of the ruling government in Rwanda, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), including the Ideal Democratic Party, the Democratic Union of the Rwandan People, the Prosperity and Solidarity Party, and the Rwandan Socialist Party. He was also accepted by the Liberal Party and the Social Democratic Party.
Just before the election, activist Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza reminded the people of Rwanda, “that although he recognizes Kagame’s achievements during his tenure as President, his greatest achievement will be to withdraw for a peaceful transfer of power”. In the years leading up to this, Kagame has done everything in his power to discredit Ingabire through arrests, an alleged smear campaign, police intimidation of his party and a host of dirty tricks to make Ingabire look politically unfit. Worse, his voter base has been mixed with the Rwandan administration’s efforts to persuade them to endorse Kagame.
Ingabire was convicted in 2010 of threatening national security and undermining the Rwandan genocide by questioning why Hutu victims were not included in the country’s official memorial. There was a massive if sometimes subtle campaign to undermine his political influence, which led to him being officially disqualified from running for office on 13 March 2024. I had the opportunity to speak with Ingabire shortly after the election results were announced:
These results were exactly what everyone expected to hear but not in their hearts what the people of Rwanda wanted to hear. Real Rwandans don’t want this trend of stability in the government dressed as a mild dictator. Believe me, there is nothing kind or kind about Kagame. This man is Putin, the other is Idi Amin….a criminal. He is as bad as all the dictators who have exploited Africa over the years but his power to keep his dark deeds out of the papers – because he fired or arrested most of the newspaper editors. And yet the international community, including France, will continue to work with him if for no other reason than that they think that at this time there is no other realistic option than him – and that is because in a cunning way he has eliminated all credible opposition. – and silenced those who would offer another opinion. And if anyone wants to oppose that part of the party, they are immediately thrown in jail for treason or anti-government activity. It’s like an old-style African dictatorship like the return of Adi Amin except he’s a lot smarter about covering his tracks.
On 7 June Rwanda’s electoral commission confirmed Kagame, Frank Habineza and Philippe Mpayimana, an independent, as candidates for the last presidential election, which was held again in 2017. The applications of six other candidates, including Diane Rwigara of the People Salvation Movement. , were rejected. The Independent called his election “highly criticized as unfair”, while Amnesty International lamented the “disastrous effect” of Kagame’s censorship laws.
During the 2024 election campaign, Kagame had pledged to continue his policies when re-elected. His opponent, Habineza protested the arbitrary arrests under Kagame. Another “rival” Mpayimana said he promises “political maturity” in the country. As the results of the election have been announced, Ms. Ingabire continued, “the question that remains now.” [whether] he will now begin to devise a plan to succeed his brother, or if he becomes greedy he will change the law and let him lead until he is ready for his grave”.
Further Studies in E-International Relations
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