AfD eyes victory over Olaf Scholz’s SPD

The far-right may be on the verge of their first election victory in a state known as Germany’s democratic heartland.

Brandenburg, which is near Berlin, is ruled by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) since the reunification of Germany.

But two million voters are heading to the polls on Sunday in a hard-fought regional election that the Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) has a chance of winning.

It would add to the AfD’s recent electoral success – and prove a major disappointment for Scholz, who lives in the state capital, Potsdam.

Such a result, while far from certain, would cast further doubt on Scholz’s ability to lead the party in next year’s general election, where he hopes to win a second term despite his declining approval rating.

The AfD was the first far-right party to be won the national election in Germany since the Second World Warin the eastern province of Thuringia, on 1 September and a second smaller one arrived in Saxony on the same day.

The party, which is officially called “extremist” in some states, will not be able to enter the state government if it wins in Brandenburg, as all other parties have refused to work with it.

Voting closes in Brandenburg at 18:00 (1600 GMT) and the first exit polls and predictions will be announced as soon as voting ends.

The AfD did not win a majority in Thuringia or Saxony and is unlikely to do so in Brandenburg either.

But it would be a symbolic victory, as the AfD continues to play a role in concerns about the economic downturn, immigration and the war in Ukraine – concerns that resonate most in the former communist east of Germany.

Brandenburg is a traditional stronghold for the SPD – it has won elections in the least populated region since East and West Germany were reunified in 1990.

Its popular SPD prime minister, Dietmar Woidke, has largely avoided campaigning with Scholz and is critical of his ruling party’s behavior and policies.

Meanwhile, Scholz, earlier this month, called other groups block the “right-wing extremist” AfD instead by keeping a so-called firewall against it.

The chancellor, a member of the SPD and former leader, described the results in Thuringia and Saxony as “bitter” and “worrying”.

Hans-Christoph Berndt, the AfD’s candidate for Brandenburg state premier, voted in the city of Golssen, south of Berlin, on Sunday and said the party had seen growing support since the last state election in 2019.

Bolstered by youth support, the AfD narrowly leads the SPD in the polls – but more than a quarter of voters are estimated to be undecided.