The new year begins with another development in the Ukraine-Russia War, Europe’s gas war. Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was the EU’s largest supplier of natural gas. The EU (and to a lesser extent, the wider European bloc) thus reduced Russia’s share of imports from more than 40% in 2021 to 8% in 2023, according to the European Council. To fill the energy gap, Europe imported more liquefied natural gas (LNG) – in ocean tankers – from the USA and other countries, as well as pipeline gas from countries such as Norway. The EU has also added temporary imports of Russian LNG but the EU has a self-imposed deadline of 2027 and is considering a freeze on all Russian fossil fuels.
As Ukraine has been the target of Putin’s massive energy-focused offensive, it has forced a tense situation in Kyiv stemming from the President’s decision to shut down Russian gas pipelines flowing into Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the move “one of Moscow’s biggest defeats… Ukrainian Energy Minister Halushchenko described the suspension of Russian gas to Europe as “a historic event…. Russia is losing its markets and will lose it’s money…” But there are inevitable human consequences in this gas war.
The European Commission has said that the EU is prepared for termination. “The European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to supply non-Russian gas,” said a Commission spokesman. “Boosted by significant new LNG import capacity from 2022”. However, much of Europe is losing power after Russian gas stops flowing through Ukraine. The immediate victims are Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Moldova, and (ironically) Russian-controlled Transnistria. The fact that several EU countries depend on Russian gas, points to deep geopolitical risks from the war in Ukraine. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has called on the EU to find a way to keep Russian gas flowing through Ukraine. Now Europe is also in a state of power crisis due to this extension of the armed conflict de facto gas-war.
Many other EU countries had already stopped Russian gas pipelines, but Slovakia and the Czech Republic remained dependent – Moldova and Transnistria even more so. Gazprom’s gas cut crippled Transnistria as it bolstered its already poor economy. Land-locked Transnistria, officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic or Pridnestrovie, is a breakaway state known internationally as part of Moldova. Prior to the gas cuts, Transnistria declared a 30-day economic emergency for fear of power outages. At the beginning of 2025, Gas supplier Tirasteploenergo informed the citizens of Transnistria that all supplies will stop. With almost no central power, Transnistria’s hospital system now relies on generators. Therefore, while hospitals and critical infrastructure have managed to consolidate temporary power, the population of Transnistria, (475,000 as of the 2015 census) is at risk.
As one would expect the tone of the response is critical of President Zelensky. One Pridnestrovian spokesman told me:
We all look with compassion as many victims of military service in Ukraine. We too have experienced cold winds of security action near our borders. Now due to President Zelensky’s decision not to renew the long-standing agreement with Moscow, we in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic are suffering greatly, as we have lost much of our power. By midnight of 2025 according to the western calendar, we lost almost all of our gas as well as a severe power outage. This has put hospitals and community organizations at great risk, and will leave many of our elderly and sick people to die in the cold. It shows that Ukraine affects everyone and it might suit Zelensky better, as he aims to be a humanitarian, to consider the human needs of the greater Europe affected by this hasty act. We now have to work with the Republic’s energy supplier, Tirasteploenergo to help residents stay warm in freezing temperatures in the city of Tiraspol and freezing cold even in remote parts of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.
Elsewhere, where Russian gas was cheap, but not free, the situation is critical. In Slovakia I couldn’t get a member of the government to comment, but predictably, an opposition member of parliament told me (off the record) that the government is deeply disturbed by the latest crisis:
We are the latest victims of the Ukrainian crisis. We have depended on this pipeline for a long time and the power cuts have hit everyone hard. We have long been urging the government to take a political risk that has for years put us at the mercy of what has long been considered cheap, but frankly, politically unreliable. It is proof of what we have been telling the government, that we need real alternatives – not just talking about them. We need action now. It was foolish of the government to put us in such a situation in Moscow. Now the worst predictions have come. It was obvious that President Zelensky would have to take this decision, but our government did nothing to prepare for the inevitable. But they will still find the power to burn down the parliament. As usual it is the common people who will suffer from this government.
In Moldova, which was also affected by the consequences of this gas war, there was no shortage of parliamentarians in the government and opposition benches willing to express their fears about what the cut would mean for the country, but no one was willing to go on the record. Moldova also declared a 60-day state of emergency as the landlocked country still relies on gas from Transnistria. A leading member of the opposition agreed to say a few words off camera:
We are now facing the saddest few months that Moldova has ever experienced due to the loss of power. It shows how bad the government’s planning is, they didn’t have a Plan B even though the world and his wife knew that this was coming down the road to guarantee a war. What else would President Zelensky do? But now, Europe’s biggest swages are stuck in an energy crisis. It starts to make you think that Putin is dragging us back to the stone age. I sympathize with all the sick, elderly and disabled who are always trying to stay warm. The conflict in Ukraine is like an animal return to medieval warfare as you become stronger and hungry for the enemy. The likes of this winter have never been seen in Chisinau before, and are rare now even in the poorest regions of Moldova.
The cut off of the pipeline flow between Russia and Ukraine comes at the same time that President Zelensky is facing increasing pressure to negotiate a ceasefire after the military retreat in the east. Zelensky’s actions on war and aid have both involved compromises, but have so far retained strong Ukrainian support. There are fears that Donald Trump will withdraw the support of the United States after his inauguration as president. As for the crisis in Ukraine itself, Ukraine may increase its own gas demand after being cut off by relying on traditional fossil fuel production and storage – but the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the expected cold winter may increase. the amount of gas Ukraine needs to import from the reduction of supplies in the EU. Transnistria has been closed. Winter weather is sure to boost demand and thus make gas disputes an even worse feature of how this war unfolds.
Further Studies in E-International Relations
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