For decades, Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon was tight.
Because of its large number of weapons, this army was stronger than the country’s army. It controlled or held sway over Lebanon’s most important government institutions and critical infrastructure, such as its border with Syria and its commercial port. Almost no major political decisions could be made without its support, and no political party would seriously challenge any move, or its sponsor Iran, made.
But that long-standing status quo has now been shaken – the change in Hezbollah has opened a new political chapter in Lebanon.
Fourteen months of fighting with Israel has left the previously untouched Shiite Muslim group victimized. The rebels have toppled their main supporter in neighboring Syria, dictator Bashar al-Assad. Iran also now finds itself vulnerable as it and its allies have been hit hard by Israel.
Hezbollah is in its most volatile position in years, as power is reestablished in the Middle East after more than a year of war and chaos. And although the group remains strong – it still has many thousands of soldiers and commands the loyalty of the country’s Shiite Muslim majority – analysts say one thing is clear: The era of Hezbollah and Iran’s unshakable rule in Lebanon seems to be over.
“It’s a new political reality,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “It will take time for this new reality to happen,” he added, “but what we have seen so far is enough to show us that the situation has changed.”
Those shifting political sands were exposed on Thursday, when Lebanon’s parliament elected a new president, overcoming years of political hiatus that many critics attributed to Hezbollah’s efforts to block any efforts to resolve the crisis. Political paralysis has left the country under weak and ineffective government leadership for more than two years.
In Lebanon, many saw the election on Thursday of General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese army, as an important step in bringing stability to the country. It was also seen as a concession by Hezbollah and, some analysts say, an acknowledgment that the group is no longer in a position to cripple the regime.
Since the founding of Lebanon, dozens of groups and sects from more than a dozen religious groups in the country have competed for power and influence. Its fragile political system depends on agreements between parties and sects, as well as their foreign allies. That system has held the country together through the series as it has veered from crisis to crisis since the 15-year civil war ended in 1990.
Over the past three decades, Hezbollah – a political and militant group – has bypassed its domestic adversaries and formed strategic alliances to strengthen its position as the real force behind a fragile and divisive state.
Even as the government struggles to keep the lights on and the water running, Hezbollah is building a vast network of social services — including quality health care and free education — for its many Shiite supporters.
But over the past three months, the group has faced a series of devastating blows.
Its war with Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s top brass, destroyed large parts of its arsenal and left the country with a multi-million dollar building to rebuild. Its crushing defeat also shattered Hezbollah’s promise to the Lebanese that it alone could protect Lebanon from Israel – a claim that still serves as the group’s official raison d’être.
Then last month, the group lost its main bridgehead of weapons and money, as well as its political allies, when the Syrian rebels, with whom Hezbollah once fought, overthrew the Assad government.
Hezbollah’s sponsor Iran has also been on the defensive since Mr al-Assad’s ouster and offered its own escalating tensions with Israel, including direct confrontation with rocket fire.
Iran’s web of militias against Israel, known as the Axis of Resistance – Hezbollah was a key player – has unraveled, along with Tehran’s ability to wield power as far west as the Mediterranean and south of the Arabian Sea.
Without those pillars of support, Hezbollah’s ability to influence Lebanese politics has waned, as the group and its allies try to position themselves as the setters of the country’s agenda. Their decline was seen even before the vote when, on Wednesday night, a presidential candidate backed by Hezbollah withdrew from the race.
The story of Hezbollah “has been seriously diluted, its soldiers have become very weak and, in my opinion, politically they will have to start paying the price,” said Sami Nader, director of the Political Sciences Institute at Saint Joseph University of Beirut.
Many experts agree that despite its fragile status, Hezbollah remains a political force in Lebanon. But they say that this is not proof that this group is holding on to the government, but it points to the inefficiency of politics and the fighting of the country. That dysfunction was on full display during Thursday’s parliamentary vote, which often featured shouting matches before votes were cast.
Thursday’s election of General Aoun as president is the first step in finding a new political map for the country and the region, say analysts. General Aoun is widely considered to be supported by the United States and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis once fought for influence in Lebanon before being eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah.
In his victory speech, General Aoun commented on the vision he and his allies had for a new political era in Lebanon, saying that this day marks “a new chapter in the history of Lebanon.”
He called the Arab countries, once expelled from Lebanon by Iran, as nations of “brotherhood”. He spoke of the state’s “right to disarm” – a euphemism for asking Hezbollah to disarm after a 60-day ceasefire with Israel expires later this month. And he envisioned a situation that could be defended by its own national army, without militias like Hezbollah that have long dragged the country into conflict and war.
“My promise is to call for a defense strategy and the establishment of a state – I repeat, a state – that invests in its army, controls all borders and implements international decisions,” said General Aoun.
Even so, experts warn that the country is still in the early days of this new political chapter – and that Hezbollah could yet bounce back. The coming months will be filled with critical litmus tests for the group, including whether it can help rebuild large swathes of the war-ravaged country and whether it withdraws entirely from southern Lebanon, as stipulated in the cease-fire agreement.
“Hezbollah has faced incredible challenges in terms of its sheer power and its ability to confront Israel,” said Paul Salem, vice president for international affairs at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “But inside Lebanon, it is still the most armed group, more powerful than any other country.”
Source link
