Crossing into the United States from Mexico it dropped significantly last year. But countries south of the US border are anxiously waiting to see if President-elect Donald J. Trump will order mass deportations.
The possibility that millions of undocumented immigrants could be deported — in what would be the largest deportation order in American history — has sent shockwaves through Latin America and sowed confusion among migrants and asylum seekers.
“We are seeing dark times coming for the migrant community,” said Irineo Mujica, the Mexico director of People Without Borders, an international advocacy group. “Anyone who falls prey to the Trump administration is now going to be eaten, chewed up and spit out.”
What is the situation at the US-Mexico border?
Mr. Trump said Mexico is allowing an “assault” of migrants in the United States. But the current situation in the world tells a different story.
Illegal crossings at the US-Mexico border have been on the decline since June, when President Biden issued an executive order barring undocumented immigrants from seeking asylum at the border.
That month, U.S. Border Patrol officials recorded 130,415 immigration incidents — a sharp drop from the more than 170,710 recorded the previous month. The numbers in November were even lower: US officials recorded 94,190 people.
That’s a big change from last year. Illegal crossings for November 2023 rose above 242,300, a record at the time.
How did the US and Mexico reduce crossings?
Critics who say that asylum is legal and a basic human right say that Mr. Biden was a short-term fix on a complex issue.
As part of Mr. Biden, the restrictions should be lifted when the number of people trying to cross illegally each day falls below 1,500 in one week. That hasn’t happened yet. But it greatly reduced border crossings and allowed officials to deport those who could not prove they would be a danger if they returned to their countries.
Mexico has also cracked down on people traveling to the US border.
It sent National Guard troops to immigration checkpoints from north to south. More recently, authorities have moved migrants farther south to Mexico — in what officials and academics call the merry-go-round. Prevent them from jumping on trains heading north and breaking into caravans, which no longer reach the US border.
In 2023, Mexico suspended the issuance of humanitarian cards that allowed asylum seekers to study, work and gain access to basic services in Mexico. Underneath by law, they must live in the state where they apply for asylum. But many use the cards to travel north without being arrested, officials said.
As a result of the suspension, between October 1 and December 26, 2024, Mexican security forces said they arrested more than 475,000 immigrants, about 68 percent more than the number arrested during the same period in 2023, government data show.
What is the status of immigrants waiting in Mexico?
As Mexico’s strategy has changed, many migrants are out of date.
“By not giving them cards, they could no longer access public services or enter the legal market,” said Andrés Ramírez Silva, who until September was the head of the National Refugee Assistance Commission.
This situation is unsustainable, human rights organizations warn. Many migrants have become easy targets for organized crime groups, extortionists.
“Many people continue to come” to Mexico, said Mauro Pérez Bravo, former president of the National Migration Institute’s citizen council. But they live in “vulnerable situations,” he added, working low-paid jobs or sleeping in shelters, dirty areas, construction sites or on the streets.
How is Mexico preparing for mass deportations?
Mexico’s border states have been working with the federal government to set up shelters to provide food and health care.
They were making arrangements to transport Mexicans who wished to return to their states. In Tijuana, a city on the southern border with San Diego, city officials have been working with churches, bus companies and humanitarian groups to prepare for the arrivals, said José Luis Pérez Canchola, director of the city’s immigration services office.
He worries that mass deportations to the United States could strain Tijuana’s migrant services, noting that many may be unaccompanied minors or in need of medical assistance.
Making sure people don’t stay long in Mexican border cities like Ciudad Juárez is a priority, said María Eugenia Campos, governor of Chihuahua state, which shares a wide border with Texas and New Mexico.
“The state of Chihuahua will not be a sanctuary” for migrants and deportees, he said.
Until this month, the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, said that the country will not accept those expelled from other countries. On Friday, he proved otherwise.
“We will ask the United States that, as much as possible, non-Mexico migrants can be sent to their countries of origin – and if not, we can cooperate in various ways,” he told reporters, adding that his government had “a plan,” without giving details.
Have the factors driving migration changed?
Not really.
About 392,000 Mexicans were displaced by conflict and violence in 2023, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, which compiles data from national governments. This was the highest number since records began in 2009.
The situation is similar in Central America. In other countries, gangs and drug cartels have led many to flee.
Honduras had more than 240,000 people who left their homes due to insecurity by the end of 2022, according to the latest report by the International Organization for Migration.
In Guatemala, the factors driving people – inequality, poverty, climate change, economic instability and violence – have not improved much despite the election of a new president, Bernardo Arévalo, an anticorruption crusader, said Aracely Martínez, a migration researcher at the Universidad. del Valle in Guatemala City.
“We have a new government whose campaign is proposing important changes, but we still haven’t seen any concrete results,” he said.
Still, the number of Guatemalans recorded at the US-Mexico border dropped to about 8,000 in November from more than 20,000 in January 2024, when Mr. Arévalo takes over, US Border Patrol data shows.
How is the situation elsewhere?
Venezuela and Cuba, which have faced heavy US sanctions, are likely to reject more deportation flights.
Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador signed asylum agreements with the first Trump administration to require people, mostly asylum seekers from Latin America, to first seek asylum in those three countries before applying to the United States, although the policy was not imposed in Honduras. and El Salvador.
Opposing the oath of Mr. Trump’s mass deportations came from Honduran President Xiomara Castro, who said this month that US military bases would “lose their reason for being” in his country if he followed through on his promise.
In Guatemala, the government dismissed as “false” reports that officials were open to accepting deported foreigners.
Panama in December reported 4,849 migrants crossing the dangerous Darién Gap – a jungle area that has become a popular migration route – the lowest numbers in more than two years. Some experts see that as a sign that immigrants are delaying their plans until after Mr. Trump’s election. Trump, and Panama’s efforts to limit. illegal immigration is active.
“We cannot say that we have won, but we are currently reducing – the statistics say so – the flow of migrants,” Javier Martínez Acha, Panama’s foreign minister, said in an interview.
In El Salvador, Mr. Trump may find a partner in President Nayib Bukele, who is close to the insiders of the presidential election.
Bukele’s management has never spoken publicly about mass deportations. Asked about specific arrangements for mass deportations, a worker at one of the call centers El Salvador set up to provide information to Salvadorans in the United States said, “We can’t get past ourselves.”
Jody García contributed reporting from Guatemala City, Gabriel Labrador from San Salvador again Mary Triny Zea from Panama City.
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