Can the president-elect meet Ghana’s high expectations?

Former Ghanaian President John Mahama won last month’s election in a landslide but will be under a lot of pressure to meet voters’ expectations when he takes office on Tuesday.

After more than three years of economic hardship, Ghanaians are demanding an immediate fix.

Mahama returned to office after eight years in opposition, running what political analyst Nansata Yakubu described as “masterful” campaigning.

He defeated Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia with 56.6% of the votes to 41.6% to increase the margin of victory for a candidate in 24 years.

Mahama’s party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), also managed to get a majority in parliament, winning 183 seats out of 276.

They are one seat short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass laws and approve budgets and contracts without the vote of MPs from the other side of the political divide.

The result of one parliamentary seat is yet to be declared due to the difference. The other four seats are being contested in court by the NDC.

But the voter turnout was lower than the 2020 election, especially in some heartlands of Bawumia’s New Patriotic Party (NPP), suggesting that some people there – who are disappointed with its performance in government – stay home.

As Mahama’s supporters celebrated his victory, Belinda Amuzu – a teacher in the northern town of Tamale, Mahama’s stronghold – summed up their hopes.

“I expect the new government to change the economy, so that the difficulties will decrease. They should also prosecute corrupt officials so that it will be a lesson for others,” he told the BBC.

“Hardship” has become a household word in Ghana since the economy hit rock bottom in 2022, creating a cost-of-living crisis that destroyed Bawumia’s reputation as a “boring kid” – and led to his hands-down defeat. of Mahama.

However, when he delivered his national speech on Friday, outgoing President Nana Akufo Addo said he was leaving behind a recovering economy.

“We provide the country with global reserves of almost $8bn (£6.4bn). This is more than the $6.2bn my administration achieved in 2017,” he said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released about $1.9bn to support the country’s economic recovery since Ghana signed up to the program in 2022.

However, opposition MPs disagree with Akufo Addo’s assessment.

“The people of Ghana have made their decision about the true state of the nation and that decision was very clear. Economic difficulties, huge debts, unemployment among the youth, despair and so on,” said junior member of parliament Emmanuel Armah Kofi Boah.

Ghanaian economist Prof. Godfred Bokpin told the BBC that there are big challenges facing the next government.

“What Ghana needs right now is credible leadership, a weak government and effective delivery of public services. Without that, there will be no future,” he said.

Mahama promised to reduce the size of the cabinet from over 80 to 60, but Prof Bokpin said it should be much smaller while political analyst Dr Kwame Asah-Asante stressed the need for appointments to be based on merit rather than loyalty.

Mahama will be accompanied by former Minister of Education Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, who will become the first female vice president in Ghana.

Dr Yakubu said his appointment was not a matter of “signs” and he was not someone who could be “deceived”.

“We have an excellent first female vice president in Prof Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang,” he told the newspaper. BBC Focus on Africa podcast.

Mahama served his first four-year term as president after winning in 2012, but lost re-election in 2016 as Nana Akufo-Addo took over with Bawumia as his running mate.

Dr Yakubu said Mahama ran for the 2016 election with his history of building roads, schools and hospitals but the voters rejected him, as their slogan was: “We don’t eat infrastructure.”

But, he said, during the Covid pandemic, voters appreciate the infrastructure his government has built, especially hospitals.

This – and the fact that the economy has fallen into deep trouble under the current government, forcing him to seek a $3bn (£2.4bn) bailout from the IMF – led Mahama to be re-elected, Dr Yakubu said.

He told the BBC that Mahama is now expected to fulfill his campaign promise to create jobs to reduce the unemployment rate by about 15%, and ease the cost of living crisis by spending some tax – or what Ghanaians call it. “nuisance taxes”.

Mahama promised to make Ghana a “24-hour economy” through the creation of night jobs in both the public and private sectors. He said he would give businessmen tax money to stay open at night and reduce the price of electricity for them.

But his critics are skeptical, pointing out that Ghana went through a severe power crisis during his first term and the power cuts were so bad that Mahama joked at the time that he was known as Mr Dumsor – “dum” meaning “off” and “sor” meaning “on” ” in the local Twi language.

He has pledged to end several taxes – including the much-criticized electricity tax on mobile transactions and on the carbon emissions produced by petrol or diesel vehicles.

Professor Bokpin said he doubts that the Mahama administration will be able to fulfill their promises.

“They have not done a cost benefit study. There is no budget space to translate those promises into reality,” he said.

Professor Bokin believes that full economic recovery and growth will take a long time.

He said: ”When you talk about economic transformation and inclusive productivity growth, you’re looking at about 15-plus years of consistently doing the right thing.

“In Ghana, we cannot do the right things consistently for a long time. We do the right things during elections and then we screw things up.”

But Mahama hopes to prove his critics wrong, saying he intends to renegotiate the terms of the IMF loan to free up “social intervention programs” in a country where 7.3 million people live in poverty.

In an interview before the election, Mahama told the BBC that the IMF wanted “some balance” in government finances.

“If you can reduce costs, and you can increase revenue and increase tax-free income, you will be able to create a balance,” he said.

Dr Asah-Asante said Mahama’s experience as a former president will help him navigate Ghana’s turbulent waters.

“Yes, he may face difficulties, but he has what it takes to fix things,” the analyst added.

Apart from the economy, corruption is one of the biggest problems facing Ghana but not everyone is convinced that Mahama will be able to deal with this scourge.

Mahama’s previous position in government – as vice president and president – was plagued by allegations of corruption, although he has always denied it.

In 2020, a UK court found that aviation giant Airbus used bribes to secure contracts with Ghana for military aircraft between 2009 and 2015.

An investigation then began in Ghana, but the Office of the Special Prosecutor, in a decision announced a few months before the election, concluded that there was no evidence that Mahama was involved in any acts of corruption himself.

The outgoing government has also been dogged by allegations of corruption, including the purchase of ambulance spare parts at a cost of $34.9m and the controversial national cathedral project where $58m has been spent with no progress on construction.

Mahama has promised his government to deal with corruption, and to ensure that officials are prosecuted for wrongdoing.

“We are thinking about special courts,” he told the BBC.

Mahama has launched a program he calls Operation Recover All Loot (Oral), which aims to investigate state funds and assets allegedly stolen by outgoing government officials.

Dr Asah-Asante said Mahama should demand financial accountability from the outgoing government during the handover period so that “whatever is wrong, he can fix” as soon as his government takes office next month.

The analyst added that Mahama will be anointed on tuesday when President Akufo-Addo stepped down after two terms in office, he had no choice but to fulfill the expectations of Ghanaians – otherwise they would “punish his government the way they punished the NPP”.

Mahama briefly acknowledged this in his victory speech, saying: “Ghanaians have high expectations, and we cannot disappoint them.”

“Our best days are not behind us; our best days are ahead of us. Always forward – never back.”