The Islamic State has lost thousands of fighters to death or imprisonment and faced the demise of its self-proclaimed Caliphate in Iraq and Syria. But the global reach of the group, also known as ISIS, remains huge, in part because of its sophisticated media and the people around the world who use it.
On New Year’s Day, a man carrying an Islamic State flag killed at least 14 people when he drove into a crowd in New Orleans. Authorities say there is no evidence that the man, Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar, had strong ties to the terrorist group. But the FBI said he was “100 percent inspired by ISIS.”
It is not yet clear what specific online content Mr. Jabbar you may have seen or how you may have been indoctrinated. Experts noted that the placement of the flag on the truck is similar to what ISIS has displayed in a media campaign urging followers to “run without mercy.” And, authorities said, he posted several videos on his Facebook account before his attack in which he pledged allegiance to ISIS.
From online videos to social media — even the Islamic State’s weekly newsletter — the group that wants to force all Muslims to adhere strictly to the early teachings of the religion has a sophisticated media strategy.
“Terrorism is essentially communication,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, a former United Nations official and executive director of the Counter Extremism Project, a think tank with offices in New York and Berlin. “It’s not a war, because obviously, ISIS can’t defeat the West, right? They tried and it didn’t end well.”
A terrorist book
How does the Islamic State keep its influence alive? In part, by transforming its movement into a global organization beyond the Middle East, with active chapters in Afghanistan, Somalia, Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Caucuses and Turkey, among other places.
But it is the glue that holds the different branches together – and it also helps to encourage “lone wolf” terrorists like Mr. Jabbar self-attack – is a media operation of the Islamic State. Experts say that although it is doubtful that the operation of the media has a physical headquarters, it is centralized and controlled by the media unit. Much of its output appears to be from its affiliates in Africa, which have recently come under heavy attack.
The group also publishes a weekly online newsletter called Al Naba, or The News, which contains details of the group’s latest activities, openly encouraging followers to commit acts of violence.
“Al Naba’s newsletter goes out like clockwork every Thursday, which is one of the most impressive things the group can do,” said Cole Bunzel, a scholar of Islamic militancy in the Middle East at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
“They have a planning system; they unite the different states, as they are called; they put together that week’s attack. They include the number of attacks and the victims they claim. And that’s the main way they stay connected to their support base around the world,” he said.
The latest edition of this newsletter, published on Jan. 2, did not mention the attack on New Orleans, and the Islamic State did not claim responsibility for it.
Al Naba was first published on the messaging app Telegram and other platforms, and has been adapting as different channels are closed, said Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute who has tracked the activities and propaganda of Islamist groups for more than 15 years.
The followers of this group also spread the messages on Twitter, Facebook and other social networks according to the researchers. If their user profiles are blocked, they usually just create new ones. The Islamic State has used a variety of online tools that are difficult to block and has moved some of its messages to the dark web, Mr. Zelin.
Terrorism analysts say it has become easier for extremists to connect with potential followers on social media due to the lack of efforts by social media companies and governments to force a fight.
Mr. Schindler said that because of the attack in New Orleans both political parties should ask: “Why does this big industry with this profit not help our security services to prevent such an attack? Why don’t we get a tip, as we get from the banks and all the financial institutions in North America and around the world, that there is terrorism here, or a tip that there is a reform process?”
Terrorism experts say Islamic State’s mastery of communications and messaging is key to its success. Al Qaeda, from which the Islamic State broke away in 2013, has established a foundation, publishes online and print magazines and produces videos and social media.
‘Kill them wherever you find them’
In January, 2024, the extremist group renewed a campaign aimed at its followers around the world: “kill them wherever you find them,” referring to a verse from the Quran.
The idea, which first appeared in 2015, was to encourage would-be followers to carry out acts of jihad at home rather than travel to Iraq and Syria. That idea became even more important when the caliphate was defeated.
During the period when the Islamic State took control of Syria and Iraq (2013-2017) and was eager to gain followers in the West, it was notorious for posting gruesome images of violence, such as the beheading of photographer James Wright Foley.
Now, experts say a growing challenge is that social media is doing too much to spread the message of the Islamic State, as algorithms that seek to increase engagement drive some users deeper and deeper into an extremist worldview.
“Terrorist groups no longer have to make a big effort to convert people; the algorithm does it for them,” said Mr. Schindler. “The point of the algorithm is to keep the user on the platform, to give him what he likes, and if this becomes Islamic extremism or if you are in the process of radicalization, your worldview changes.”
In Syria, where the Islamic State took advantage of a long civil war to seize large swaths of territory, only to lose out to US-backed fighters, the group has begun a comeback, accelerating its offensive. This trend may continue, because the regime of President Bashar al-Assad was suddenly overthrown in December by another extremist group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which was once linked to the Islamic State and Al Qaeda.
The situation remains volatile, but some analysts fear that the Islamic State may return amid the chaos. The group’s newsletter spoke of dismissing Hayat Tahrir al Sham as “jihadists turned politicians,” but did not call for them to be attacked.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al Sham and other rebel groups say they must take on the role of guarding Islamic State prisoners in eastern Syria and run camps holding 40,000 Islamic State fighters and family members — a task that has been in the works for nearly five years. The Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces, supported by the United States. Many terrorism experts question how Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which once had links to the Islamic State but then acrimoniously broke away, can do the job of suppressing it.
The Islamic State recently renewed its “Breaking the Walls” media campaign, which encourages imprisoned fighters to break out of prisons in eastern Syria and free their families.
If that succeeds, Mr. Zelin said, it would be a “disaster.”
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