5 things to watch out for in 2025 – Global Issues

1 Can we keep 1.5 alive?

“Keep 1.5 alive” has been the UN’s appeal for several years, a reference to the goal of ensuring that the average temperature does not rise more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The scientific consensus is that a lack of action could have catastrophic consequences, not least for the so-called “Leader Countries”, such as island developing nations that could disappear under the sea, as sea levels rise.

At COP30, the UN climate conference scheduled to take place between 10 and 21 November 2025, mitigation (in other words, actions and policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to rising temperatures) may be an important focus.

The nations of the world will come up with improved, more ambitious commitments to reduce greenhouse gases. This is both a recognition that the existing promises are not enough at all, in terms of lowering the temperature, and part of the agreement that the Member States signed in 2015 at the Paris COP (nations are expected to “fulfill” their commitments every five years. The last time this happened was at the Glasgow COP of 2021, delayed by one year due to the COVID-19 pandemic).

2 Protecting the environment

Holding COP30 in the Amazonian rainforest of Brazil is symbolic. It goes back to the early days of international efforts to protect the environment: the most important “World Summit”, which led to the establishment of three environmental agreements on climate change, biodiversity, and desertification, took place in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro. in 1992.

The site also highlights the role that nature has to play in the climate crisis. The rainforest is a major “carbon sink”, a system that absorbs and stores CO2, a greenhouse gas, and prevents it from entering the atmosphere, where it contributes to warming.

Unfortunately, rainforests and other “nature-based solutions” face threats from human development, such as illegal logging that has devastated large areas of the region. The UN will continue efforts that began in 2024 to improve the protection of rainforests and other ecosystems, at the biodiversity talks that are due to resume in Rome in February.

3 Who will pay for all this?

Finance has long been a hot topic in international climate negotiations. Developing countries argue that rich countries should contribute more to projects and programs that will help them move away from fossil fuels, and power their economies with clean energy sources. The downside for rich countries is that fast-growing economies like China, which are now emitting greenhouse gasses to the world, must also pay their share.

At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, progress of some kind was made, with the adoption of an agreement to triple the amount of climate finance paid by developing countries, to $300 billion per year, by 2035. The deal is a definite step forward, but the final total is well short of the $1.3 trillion climate experts say these countries need to adapt to the crisis.

Expect more progress to be made on financing for 2025, at a conference in Spain at the end of June. Development Financing Conferences are held only once every 10 years, and next year’s program is being billed as an opportunity to make radical changes to international financing. Environmental and climate concerns will be raised, and potential solutions such as green taxes, carbon pricing and subsidies will all be on the table.

4 Laying down the law

When the attention of the International Court of Justice turned to climate change in December, it was hailed as a landmark moment in relation to the legal obligations of states under international law.

Vanuatu, a Pacific island nation most vulnerable to the crisis, asked the court for advisory status, to clarify countries’ responsibilities in relation to climate change, and to inform any future judicial actions.

Over a two-week period, 96 countries and 11 regional organizations participated in public hearings before the Court, including Vanuatu and a group of other Pacific island countries, as well as major economies including China and the USA.

The ICJ will deliberate for several months before giving its advisory opinion on the matter. Although the proposal will be non-binding, it is expected to guide future international climate law.

5 Plastic pollution

UN-convened talks on tackling the global plastic pollution epidemic came close to an agreement during talks in Busan, South Korea.

Some important progress was made during the November 2024 negotiations – the fifth round of negotiations following the UN Environment Assembly’s 2022 resolution calling for a legally binding global instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment.

An agreement on three important areas needs to be ironed out: plastic products, including the chemical issue; sustainable production and consumption; and financing.

Member States are now tasked with finding political solutions to their differences before the session begins, as well as finding a final agreement that addresses the full cycle of plastic materials and delivers a growing global push to end plastic pollution.

“It is clear that the world still wants and wants an end to plastic pollution,” said the Executive Director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP) Inger Andersen. “We need to make sure that we are building an instrument that punches the problem hard instead of punching below its weight. I ask all Member States to rely on it.”