ROME, Dec 09 (IPS) – No one saw it coming. After years of brutal war in Syria, many believed that the battle lines had stabilized, leaving only rare conflicts or opportunities for negotiation.
Syria? Is there anything left to report? That question was answered loud and clear on November 27th.
While the world looked on, a Turkish-backed jihadist coalition launched a surprise attack on Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. Ten days later, Damascus fell.
The rapid offensive by the Levant Liberation Organization (HTS)—a group considered a “terrorist organization” by the UN Security Council, the United States, Russia and Turkey—has brought back glimpses of ISIS’s capture of Mosul in 2014, Iraq’s second-largest city. city, or the Taliban takeover of Kabul in 2021.
In Syria, the Assad family’s fifteen-year rule is over. Moscow confirmed on Sunday that the family is now in Russia, but what awaits the nation they left behind is still uncertain.
The Road Here
The war in Syria began in 2011 during the so-called “Arab Spring,” a wave of uprisings—many of which escalated into conflicts—that swept across the Middle East and North Africa.
Frustration with Assad’s repressive and dictatorial regime, which had been in place since 1971, led to massive protests that were met with brutal torture.
In response, the opposition formed an armed group called the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a coalition that quickly included Islamist hardliners.
Over time, these hardliners, backed by logistical and military support from neighboring Turkey, took control of the regime, eventually consolidating their power in the northwestern region of Idlib.
Meanwhile, the Kurds have emerged as a third force in the conflict. With their vision of human rights and a horizontal egalitarian society, they distanced themselves from Islamist opposition groups and the Assad regime, which had treated them as second-class citizens for decades.
Backed by the International Coalition, the Kurds have played a major role in ISIS, whose territory – which includes an area the size of the United Kingdom across Syria and Iraq – fell with the fall of its last stronghold in the spring of 2019.
At the time, Syria had split into three factions: Turkish-backed jihadists in the northwest and other border areas; the Kurds in the northeast—US troops in their territory—and the Assad regime, backed by Russia and Iran, which controls the rest of the country.
This fragile balance collapsed on November 27. The map of Syria was redrawn.
The fall of Assad’s forces did not result from a sophisticated jihadist campaign. Instead, 13 years of conflict had left the military weak, reliant on antiquated Soviet-era equipment and demoralized soldiers.
A negative international background added to the confusion. The fall of Aleppo coincided with a tough ceasefire in Lebanon, following two months of Israeli strikes against Hezbollah, a critical ally of Assad and a prized asset of Iran.
Meanwhile, Russia’s hands were tied. Four years into the conflict that was expected to end weeks ago, Moscow is now facing NATO medium-range missile strikes on its soil.
But Turkey has a real stake in Syria. Ankara’s failed efforts to normalize relations with Damascus, coupled with US President-elect Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a complete withdrawal of US troops, have greatly exacerbated the current crisis.
This is in line with the same withdrawal announcement in March 2019, which led to the Turkish-backed Islamic forces occupying the Kurdish-Syrian region of Serekaniye. Last year, the same groups took control of Afrin, another Kurdish enclave north of Damascus.
Since then, Turkey has carried out a campaign of ethnic cleansing against Kurds along its southern border, marked by relentless bombing and forced resettlement programs that have displaced thousands of people.
What Now?
“Syria has become the center of the Third World War: the Russians, the International Coalition, Iran … all the big countries are fighting here,” Salih Muslim, a prominent Kurdish leader and member of the Democratic Union Party’s presidential committee, told IPS in a telephone interview. in Qamishlo.
Muslim, a former political prisoner, stressed the need for Syrians to live together “regardless of their race, creed, or opinion.”
Surprisingly, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of the jihadist attack group, expressed similar sentiments. However, his credibility is questionable given his history as a commander in Al Qaeda’s Syrian branch.
According to a Rojava Information Center report titled “When Jihadism Learns to Smile,” Al-Jolani worked hard to build a “careful ade, both in foreign and domestic politics.”
“The division between ISIS and HTS is clear. “However, debate continues over the nature and extent of any remaining ties between HTS and Al-Qaeda,” the report said.
Spanish journalist and Middle East analyst Manuel Martorell is skeptical of HTS promises.
“When Islamists take power, they always say they will respect the minority and avoid fundamentalism. But underneath these promises there is a hidden agenda that ultimately leads to the Islamization of society and forces the minorities to flee,” Martorell told IPS in a telephone interview from Pamplona.
He describes the HTS attack as part of “Erdogan’s strategy to impose his solution on Syria,” which includes dismantling Kurdish autonomy and ethnically cleansing Kurds along the Syria-Turkey border.
“It is impossible that the pro-Turkey Islamist groups and the followers of Al Qaeda launched this attack without the permission and support of Turkey,” said Martorell.
As uncertainty mounts, Kurdish leaders have called for a more coordinated effort to repel the jihadist advance, warning that power vacuums like these are fertile ground for ISIS resurgence.
Reports have already emerged about ISIS activity in desert areas and camps where their families and associates live. Meanwhile, clashes between Turkish-backed jihadists and Kurdish forces are escalating, especially in areas such as Manbij, northeast of Damascus.
On December 5, UN Secretary-General António Guterres lamented the escalation in Syria, calling it the result of “years of collective failure.”
Now, as thousands of displaced Syrians return from Turkey, they cross paths with those fleeing another uncertain future—a new wave of migration from a nation that has been in ruins for more than a decade.
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service
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