Joel Dahmen won his PGA Tour card in spectacular fashion. Here’s the catch

Joel Dahmen’s pursuit of a PGA Tour card was arguably the most exciting story of the fall season. With 125 cards available, the tour fan favorite entered the final week of the season at No. 124, and his future is in great danger. A double-bogey 7 late in Saturday’s round looked set to spoil his chances – but then a 64 on Sunday returned him to No. 124, where he started the church and within no.

But according to the folks at DataGolf, you can make a case that Dahmen’s 2025 PGA Tour status actually could be. make it difficult to come back to return in 2026. If you missed out on Dahmen’s top 125 they might have chosen to play the Korn Ferry Tour schedule, and according to their stats it’s actually easier to get PGA Tour status with KFT than it is to keep it while on the road.

To be clear, no one is suggesting that Dahmen should have finished with a top score of 125. Being on the PGA Tour is the whole point, after all. Money, majors, points, benefits, dream, up. Dahmen’s job is to grow all of that, not to keep his card in 2026. It’s also hard to predict what Dahmen’s 2025 will look like if he finishes No. 126, for example, and played a combination of KFT and PGA Tour events. But it is still an interesting lens through which to examine the changes in the structure of the PGA Tour, which will see cards reduced from 125 to 100 at the end of next season and reduce the KFT graduates from 30 ​​to 20.

What’s the math? According to the excellent DataGolf newsletter, the top 100 players on Tour have averaged +0.16 “Actual Strokes Gained” per round over the past 20 years, although in the last two years, during the LIV poaching era, that the value decreased to +0.05. But compare that to the No. 20 in KFT, averaging 0.36 SG/True cycle. At that rate, the same quality of golf could win you a PGA Tour card from KFT and cost you your career on the PGA Tour. (This was true of the previous format of cards, too.) It also makes sense that KFT graduates often have a hard time keeping their cards; the same level that got them to the Tour isn’t always good enough to keep them there.

Dahmen didn’t know those numbers, naturally. But he, like all Tour pros, knows that keeping his job is getting harder.

“I’ve got to improve my tone,” he said after his final round, then checked himself. “Not a a tonbut I have to be better to be in the top 100.

“I have said this for a long time: my batting is in the Top 30 in the world. I have to be a little bit better with other things and stick to my Thursday and Friday routine to play the way I can play.”

Bottom line: In golf’s most important statistic, style of play, Dahmen was No. 16 on Tour this season. He was good off the tee, too, finishing 40th in strokes gained in that department. He actually led the Tour in average distance to the hole, averaging six inches closer than World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. But he struggled Thursday (145th in scoring average) compared to Friday (14th, more than a stroke and a half better). He finished the season with 181 hits, too. In other words, there are many bright spots but room for improvement, too.

“I showed how to play under pressure today, like bring it,” concluded Dahmen. “And my round on Friday, I think it’s one of the better rounds on a Friday at Seaside [when he rallied to make the cut]. The two biggest pressure moments of my career that I have shown. And I can take it further and I might start at Sony. “

It’s safe to say that Dahmen will take his chances on the Grand Tour instead.