Netumbo of Swapo Nandi-Ndaitwah faces Panduleni Itula from IPC

If things go the way the long-term ruling party in Namibia is going, the country will be electing its first female head of state this week.

But the spirit of disillusionment with freedom fighters in South Africa, coupled with anti-establishment sentiment in many parts of the world, may threaten what could be a historic achievement.

Deputy President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, 72, is the flag bearer of Swapo, who has led the country since its independence from apartheid in South Africa in 1990.

Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu Hassan is currently Africa’s only female president, so Nandi-Ndaitwah will be joining an exclusive club if she wins.

His party, which has been in absolute power for three decades, saw a significant drop in its support in the last general election. It goes into Wednesday’s vote amid an unemployment rate of 19% – roughly the same as it was 30 years ago – troubled government finances, questions about corruption and high levels of inequality.

Standing in Nandi-Ndaitwah’s way is his main rival among the 14 other candidates – Panduleni Itula of the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) party.

He also opposes the country’s traditional and male-dominated political culture.

But he is a trusted leader of this sparsely populated and peaceful country who has served in the highest office of government for a quarter of a century.

“I have always believed in working together, that is what enabled me to achieve what I have achieved,” he said.

Known for his effective leadership and leadership style, the vice president is also very loyal to the team, which he joined at a young age.

At the age of 14 he became part of the anti-government movement in South Africa, which had ruled the country – then known as South West Africa – since the end of the First World War and later introduced apartheid.

He was recognized for his tenacity and organizational talent as the leader of Swapo’s Youth League, which became a stepping stone in his political career, which included ministerial roles in foreign affairs, tourism, child welfare and information.

He has acquired a wealth of knowledge and experience that will stand him in good stead should he step into the driver’s seat.

“He seems very intelligent and sweet and kind, even in the way he tries to say everything in a way that makes me understand even like me,” Laimi, a potential voter, told the BBC in the capital, Windhoek.

“Itula is like a new jewel with her glasses, her smart suit and her confident walk, but maybe she blinds you with her brilliance,” said her friend Maria.

Both are young adults who could not find jobs.

A qualified dentist, Itula, 67, was also a former Swapo activist but was expelled from the party in 2020 after running as an independent candidate against President Hage Geingob in the 2019 elections.

He had been a youth leader and spent time in prison before being deported to the UK in the early 1980s. He returned to Namibia in 2013.

Six years later, he came out in a flash in Namibian politics, challenging Geingob in the presidential election after Swapo’s candidate selection system was flawed.

Itula’s intervention in that election resulted in Swapo receiving its lowest ever share – 56% – in the presidential election and also losing two thirds in parliament.

As someone who lived a professional life outside of politics, he appeals to 50% of the 1.5 million voters under the age of 35, most of whom want economic reform, jobs or a moderate increase in their salaries.

His bold and sometimes austere style, rejecting Nandi-Ndaitwah’s political propaganda, won him the support of businessmen and the rising urban intelligentsia.

But while Itula is quick off the mark and eloquent, the vice president chooses his words wisely, and speaks slowly and deliberately.

Nandi-Ndaitwah seeks harmony and cooperation, emphasizing community, love and care, and thus, reaching down to the roots.

And since she is the first woman who has the chance to become the president of the country, she carries the hope of other women who want change in the patriarchal society.

However, Nandi-Ndaitwah represents the old “tried and trusted” school of Namibia’s independence struggle, while Itula represents the “revolutionary spirit” that can exist in a political landscape that needs to be reformed.

According to political analyst Henning Melber, the competition between the two frontrunners could mean that the presidential election will enter an unprecedented second round, which is necessary if no one gets more than half of the votes.

In neighboring South Africa, the African National Congress, which has been in power since 1994, was forced into a coalition following May’s general election. When I was in Botswana – in the east – the Botswana Democratic Party, which had been in power for almost sixty years, collapsed embarrassing defeat at the end of last month.

Swapo wants to avoid the same fate.

The winner on Wednesday will be the person who can be trusted on issues such as youth unemployment, corruption, health care, education and infrastructure development, while also being able to strengthen the economy.

This will need to happen without the sale of the country’s vast natural resources to foreign bidders – such as offshore gas and lithium and other precious metals.

Itula’s IPC was not part of the 2019 elections, but has been active in local elections since then and is seen as a credible political alternative. It has received praise for the way it has handled other local governments.

Nandi-Ndaitwah’s biggest asset may be that he is seen as “incorruptible, morally and materially” as Namibian ambassador Tuliameni Kalomoh said.