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Future History: Ancient Realism and Trump

The re-election of Donald J. Trump is proof that history tells its jokes more than once and leaves the task of explaining them to theologians. Without history, theory takes refuge in the good; without theory, history is a series of unrelated events. A theologian is one who extends the stick of history; he extends history, as it were, to the times that tell society the most about its times. For a theologian who wants to make sense of the crisis of the liberal order, this period is the 1930s-40s and coincides with the publication of the classics of realism. Can these texts make sense in our times? No doubt they intended.

This is Hans Morgenthau’s place Politics Between Nations he released five programs in his life. In the fifth edition, in 1978, Morgenthau warned America about what history had in store for those who forgot – or did not learn – the Nazi experience. An atomized society, insecure about its future and powerless in the face of existing threats, Morgenthau wrote, ‘the United States will probably participate to an increasing degree in those trends in modern culture that found their extreme expression in Soviet Russia. and National Socialist Germany’ (Morgenthau 1978, 121).

The ‘tendency to modern culture’ that Morgenthau refers to represents the challenge posed by liberal modernity after the death of God. The spiritual void left by this event increased the person’s sense of insecurity and powerlessness in the face of a life without purpose. Meaning had to be restored, and indeed was restored, to individual allegiance to world religions. God was killed but mortals needed their temples of worship. A temple built over a ruined church, the nation, in the words of Reinhold Niebuhr, ‘makes God’ (Niebuhr 1932, 225). Falling from heaven, man is seduced by modern nationalism. Modern nationalism offers the promise of infinity in limited reality. A sanctuary of shaken confidence; a land of promise to restore pride in group unity.

The experience of the 1930-40s taught ancient realists an important lesson: that unless the spiritual needs of man are met, extreme nationalism will keep knocking at the door, threatening the fragile international relations of the liberal system. Even the most inspired Marxist of ancient realism, Edward Hallet Carr, who, naturally, emphasized the needs of employment, drew attention to this spiritual field in the reconstruction of the post-war order (Karkour 2023). ‘The new faith’ wrote Carr Conditions of Peace‘it must solve the problem of unemployment by giving it as strong a moral purpose as religion did in the Middle Ages’ (Carr 1943, 120). In short, the challenge for the architects of the post-war order was to address the psychological and social needs of the individual; to restore meaning and social cohesion to the land that God forsaken.

Did the postwar order meet the modern challenge of freedom? Ancient realists did not think so. In the 1950s and 1960s, Morgenthau argued that America had become a ‘waste society’, driven by the pursuit of many things and concerned only with endless production and consumption. Politics began and ended at the edge of private pleasure. History does not speak of hope for the future of such a society, concludes Morgenthau The Purpose of American Politics; due to the lack of citizen engagement to deliberately discuss the idea of ​​the nation that leads to moral decay and, in time, will lead to fascism or civil war. Political leadership that fails to involve the public in their sense of meaning leaves a vacuum to be filled by ‘someone else, who may not be a sadistic or demagogic elite who caters to popular sentiments and prejudices that will create public opinion in favor of a particular policy far more than it is unhealthy and dangerous’ (Morgenthau 1960, 264).

Did Morgenthau’s prophecy come true with the advent of Trump? It is possible to interpret Trump as a realist, as other realists do (eg Schweller 2018). I find it difficult to agree with this interpretation, since Trump’s policies do not follow the dictates of the balance of power. The withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal is one of the examples where ‘great pressure’ was sought despite the fact that Iran was not a threat to the US position in the world (Karkour 2021). The policy also threw Iran into the arms of America’s adversaries – Russia and China. In terms of hard facts – balance of power – principles, the policy makes little sense.

But how can Trumpism be explained as a phenomenon through the lens of classical realism? In mine International topic, give me an answer. Trumpism, in my definition, ‘fills the spiritual void left by liberal modernity, which gives a sense of warmth to a society caught in the grip of autonomy and social atomism’ (Karkour 2022, 581). Trump’s appeal to the ‘forgotten men and women of our country’ seeks to provide this sense of warmth (Trump 2017). With the unity of the group, these ‘forgotten men and women’ are no longer limited. They have been reunited with their God – the nation. Trumpism is their way of despair; a temple built on the ruins of their destroyed church.

In order to deal with a phenomenon like Trumpism, therefore, something more drastic is needed than simply ‘changing’ the status quo or inventing a smart strategy – such as ‘sea balance’ – that will maintain America’s power in the Western Hemisphere. The former is advocated by liberals (e.g. Ikenberry 2020), the latter by neo-realists (e.g. Mearsheimer and Walt 2016). Defending a liberal order, even a reformed order, ironically, deepens the crisis of liberalism. The further the liberal order moves away from traditional ideas, the more one’s sense of existential anxiety and the crisis of freedom.

Meanwhile the defense of the neo-realist strategy lends itself, and ironically, to idealism. The neo-realists continue to push their strategy on the US elites, only to learn that those elites have little interest in listening to what the neo-realists have to say. Since the fall of the USSR neo-realism became a badge of protest. From Kosovo to Iraq, from Libya to Iran, neo-realists have failed to change the course of policy from what they see as rationality. In the reality of this negative policy, neo-realists became idealists beauty at its best.

Ultimately, no amount of liberal reform or high-level policy engagement will enable a country like the US to regain its sense of meaning and vitality in its foreign policy. As a national interest, and logically before it, the nation’s sense of meaning needs to be negotiated through a democratic negotiation process (Karkour and Roesch 2024). Only by engaging in these discussions can one feel empowered as part of a group. In liberal modernity, this empowerment is a necessary safeguard against usurpation of power by secular religions. The only way to take the place of God is to appear before the citizens of Polis. Absence of means of political dialogue leaves one isolated. Demagogues exploit this feeling by giving a false sense of community to promote their private interests and, in many cases, dangerous policies.

It is true that the writings of the classical realist should ultimately be read in their time. But they didn’t just talk about their times. Carr was history; his most memorable book, The Twenty Year Crisisit was a work of theory. In thinking, the ancient realists were ahead of their times. It is for this reason that we must study them today. If those who do not study history may repeat their mistakes, those who do not study theory may inadvertently reinvent it – often by omission. Examples abound where IR misses learning opportunities in its writings. It was to Morgenthau that Ty Solomon (2012) returned, to bring insights into the study of emotions in IR. Meanwhile Sean Molloy (2020) showed the importance of an immigrant in the current understanding of reflexivity in IR.

There is a debate today about how IR can be a discipline. If there is a point in being a discipline, as some have argued (e.g. Corry 2022), there must also be a point in studying the texts that are part of our shared heritage as IR scholars. Especially if those scriptures, as this article said, can bring insight to help us understand our times. Or, like theologians, to take upon ourselves the task of explaining the repeated jokes of history.

References

Carr, EH (1943) Peaceful conditions. London: Macmillan.

Corry, O. (2022) ‘What is the point of being a discipline? Four Disciplinary Strategies and the Future of International Relations’ Cooperation and Conflict 57:3, pp. 290-310.

Ikenberry, J. (2020) A safe world for democracy: liberal internationalism and the problems of global order. London: Yale University Press.

Karkour, H. (2021) ‘Irrational and naive? Trump and the modern liberal challenge to US foreign policy’, International relations 35:4, pp. 533-50.

Karkour, H. (2022) ‘Liberal Modernity and the Classical Realist Critique of the (Current) International Order’ International 98:2, pp. 569-86.

Karkour, H. (2023) ‘From I The Twenty Year Crisis on the climate crisis: Rethinking Carr’s thoughts on nationalism and global change’ Journal of International Political Theory19:3, pp. 317-334.

Karkour, H. and Roesch, F. (2024) ‘Towards the “Fifth Debate” of IR: Racial Justice and the National Interest in Classical Realism’, Review of International Studies26:2, pages 1-20.

Mearsheimer, J. and Walt, S. (2016) ‘The Case for Maritime Standardization’ External ones95:4, pp. 70-83.

Molloy, S. (2020) ‘Truth and Revolution: Morgenthau, Academic Freedom and Dissent.’ European Journal of International Relations 26:2, pp. 321–43.

Morgenthau, H. (1960) The purpose of American politics. New York: Alfred Knopf.

Morgenthau, H. (1978) Politics between nations: the struggle for power and peace5th. New York: Alfred Knopf.

Niebuhr, R. (1932) A moral person and a moral society. New York: Scribner.

Schweller, R. (2018) ‘The Three Pleasures of Trump’s Foreign Policy’, External ones97:5, pp. 133-143.

Solomon, T. (2012) ‘Human Nature and the Limits of the Self: Hans Morgenthau on Love and Power’ Review of International Studies 14:2, pp. 201–24.

Trump, D. (2017) inaugural address, Washington DC, 17 Jan. 2017.

Further Studies in E-International Relations


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