Japan’s scandal-hit ruling party chooses Shigeru Ishiba as the next Prime Minister

Japan’s ruling party has chosen Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader, naming the former defense chief as Japan’s next leader.

Nine candidates are running for the leadership of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for most of the post-war period, after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced last month that he would not run for re-election.

Since the LDP has a majority in parliament, its party leader will become prime minister and Ishiba is expected to be appointed to the post next week.

The changing of the guard comes at a tumultuous time for the long-ruling party, which has been plagued by scandals and internal disputes that have torn apart once-powerful factions.

Ishiba, 67, won the majority opinion poll, and this was his fifth and, he said, his final bid to lead the troubled LDP.

The winner was decided by an internal party vote, rather than a public vote. The race started with nine players before Ishiba entered and Sanae Takaichi, 63, became Japan’s first female leader.

Ishiba agrees to allow female governors – a highly controversial issue opposed by many members of the LDP and successive governments. His outspokenness and public criticism of Prime Minister Kishida – a rarity in Japanese politics – has put other members of the party on edge during interviews with members of the public.

He knows well the tactics of party politics as well as security policies. He provides safe hands and stability during the transition within the group.

What he means is the new face of a party that wants to reinvent itself and regain the public trust it has lost in the past few months amid a sluggish economy, struggling families and a series of political scandals. His economic strategy includes raising wages to combat rising prices.

Takaichi, on the other hand, was one of the two women running for the leadership of the LDP, but she was also among the most active.

A close friend of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi’s positions on women’s issues are in line with the LDP’s policy of women working in their traditional roles of being good mothers and wives. He opposes the law allowing women to keep their maiden name and allowing female rulers.

A constant among the front-runners, however, is a promise to overhaul the LDP — which has held power almost continuously since its formation in 1955 — amid public anger and declining approval ratings.

“In the upcoming presidential election, it is important to show people that the Liberal Democratic Party will change,” said Kishida at a press conference last month, when he announced his decision not to run for another term.

The LDP leadership contest is not just a race for the top post, but also an attempt to restore public trust that the party has bled in the past few months amid a faltering economy, struggling families and a series of political scandals.

Chief among these scandals are revelations about the extent of the influence of the controversial Unification Church of Japan within the LDP, and allegations that party groups have underreported political funding over the years.

Disagreements in the mud of political financing led to the dissolution of five of the six factions in the LDP – factions that have long been the core of the party, and whose support is crucial to victory in the LDP’s leadership election.

However, perhaps most prominent in the minds of the Japanese public are the country’s worsening economic problems.

In the wake of the Covid pandemic, ordinary Japanese families have been feeling the pinch as they battle a weak yen, a sluggish economy and food prices that are rising at the fastest pace in nearly half a century.

Meanwhile, data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows that wages in Japan have not changed in 30 years. That recession, coupled with 30-year lows, is tightening the screws on Japanese households and prompting calls for government aid.

It also harms the LDP’s historically good standing among voters.

“People are tired of the LDP,” Mieko Nakabayashi, a former opposition MP and professor of political science at Tokyo’s Waseda University, told the BBC. “They are fed up with the inflation they are currently facing and the so-called ‘lost 30 years’. The Japanese currency is low, many imports have become more expensive due to inflation, and many people see that.”

Another key agenda item is Japan’s aging and shrinking population, which is putting pressure on social and medical services and posing a real challenge to the country’s medium- and long-term workforce. Whoever is in charge of the LDP, then the government should rethink how Japan operates its labor market and whether it should change its attitude towards immigration.

The overhaul is much needed before Japan’s general election, which is scheduled to take place in October 2025 – or sooner, as some of the candidates have indicated. Koizumi, for example, said he would call a general election immediately after the LDP contest.

The last two weeks of campaigning for the leadership of the LDP are seen by experts as an audition for the national election. For that reason, candidates were not only presenting themselves to other party members but also to the public, trying to win over voters.

“Society is changing,” Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Kyoto’s Ritsumeikan University who has worked closely with Abe and Kishida, told the BBC. “It is time for the revolutionary politics in this country to adapt to the new political environment and political battles.”

The other seven candidates in the first round were 43-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, the youngest; Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, another female candidate; Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono, 61; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63; Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, LDP secretary-general; Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, former minister of economic security; and Katsunobu Kato, 68, former chief cabinet secretary.

Four of the nine served as foreign ministers; three as defense minister.