Can Trump still go to jail?

Donald Trump’s return to the White House opened the door to two impeachment charges against him.

The federal case against him for allegedly conspiring to interfere in Georgia’s 2020 election will continue until the end of his term in office – if he is still alive at that time.

But next week, the fate of the remaining case – his conviction on 34 counts in New York – will be decided. It may stop, or it may be swept away by the same political and legal process he allowed him to escape others.

Justice Juan Merchan will decide on Tuesday whether to grant Trump’s pre-election bid to vacate his conviction. If Justice Merchan sided with Trump, it would almost erase his criminal woes.

But if the judge accepts the conviction, he will proceed with sentencing later this month. It could result in further delay efforts from Trump and open an unprecedented new opportunity for the American criminal justice system.

“This is an untapped field,” said Anna Cominsky, a professor at New York Law School.

In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records. The charges stem from Trump’s attempt to hide the kickbacks of his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, who in 2016 paid a former movie star to keep quiet about alleged sex with Trump.

Trump’s lawyers say a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling granting presidents a degree of immunity from criminal prosecution applies to other aspects of his New York case, so the trial and conviction should be overturned.

During the trial, Justice Merchan rejected the efforts of Trump’s lawyers to dismiss the case on the grounds of immunity. But that was before the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump’s favor this summer — and before Trump won re-election.

Justice Merchan set a deadline on November 12 to decide whether to approve Trump’s request.

If he dismisses the case, it will be the end of the case.

But if he rejects the defense’s request, Trump’s much-delayed sentencing will remain scheduled for November 26.

Even if Justice Merchan upholds the conviction and maintains the scheduled sentence, Trump’s team will likely seek more delays and appeals.

Todd Blanche, Trump’s lead attorney, did not respond to questions about whether he plans to seek a delay.

Because Trump will be tied to the presidency and the legal questions surrounding the president’s conviction are so complex, some experts see little chance it will stay on the calendar.

“I think the most likely outcome in the federal case is for the judge to postpone the sentence until after Trump’s term,” said Daniel Charles Richman, a professor at Columbia Law School.

“Sentencing can cause a lot of problems in the short term,” including politics, he said.

If Trump finds himself in a Manhattan court later this month, deciding his future will be an unprecedented challenge.

Under the law, Trump faces a range of penalties, including fines, probation and up to four years in prison. But many options were rendered ineffective by his return to the White House.

“The impeachment of a sitting president may be one of the most complex, difficult decisions you can imagine,” Ms. Cominsky said.

“It is difficult to imagine what sentence can be handed down that will not prevent the president from doing his job or endanger the security of the president.”

Few expect Justice Merchan to sentence Trump to a short prison term this time.

“He is a 78-year-old man with no criminal record, convicted of a non-violent crime,” said retired New York Supreme Court Justice Diane Kiesel. “I don’t think a judge can give a prison sentence to someone under those sentences.”

Even if Justice Merchan were to reach such a sentence, Trump’s team would likely move it forward, delaying the actual punishment.

Trump may leave the sentencing hearing with the legal equivalent of a slap on the wrist. Justice Merchan can ask the former president to pay a small fine in the range of three or four figures.

He may also grant Trump unconditional immunity; “Basically, good-bye,” as Justice Kiesel put it.

The only thing that is certain is that Trump cannot make this conviction go away alone.

Trump has considered the possibility of pardoning himself for possible criminal charges against him in the past, and he could do so for his own federal charges when he becomes president in January.

But he won’t be able to pardon himself in New York, as his conviction took place in state court.

His fate, for now, is in the hands of the court. But whatever the outcome, Trump will likely avoid the harshest sanctions he faces.

“He is a very lucky man,” said Justice Kiesel.