As the election approaches, Polymarket has opened a few new betting pools to provide relief to its struggling gambling customers. In hours, or days, we will know who won the US presidential election and all those bets on Polymarket will come off. But there is always something new to bet on so Polymarket has opened a new bet on who will be ordained, not who wins the presidency.
One of the biggest stories of this election cycle has been the arrival of gambling markets. There are many such sites and they have been around for years but the uncertainty and heightened emotions of the 2024 presidential election have made them more popular than ever. Of all the betting sites, Polymarket is the most eye-catching.
Billing itself as the future of news, crypto-based Polymarket bets on events with binary outcomes. Will Trump or Harris win the Presidential election? You can buy shares of that for less than a dollar. If your selection is successful, you collect the difference from all shares.
How does Polymarket determine when that particular market is closed? When can gamblers take a breath and count their gains or start counting their losses? “This Presidential market is settling in when the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC are all calling the election one-man,” Polymarket said on its website. “If that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until it is opened and it is decided who will be anointed.”
As first spotted by Fortune, Polymarket gamblers are now betting that whoever wins the election may not be the nominee. There are two new bets available on Polymarket and both close on January 20, 2025. The first is “US launch on January 20?” According to the site, this market settles if the person approved to win the 2024 election is sworn in as president. As of this writing, the bet has generated about $60,000 in volume.
A very popular market that asks the same question is “Who will be elected President?” There is more than $4 million in volume in that and it is a direct choice between Trump and Harris. Trump is currently the favorite to be elected, with 61% of bets compared to 37% for Harris.
It’s a silly bet but it speaks to a real concern shared by many Americans. Many of us have been waiting for November 5th for months because, in part, we wanted this election cycle to be over. It’s been a tough, exhausting, and stupid year. From Trump’s dominance of his own Party, again, to the firing of Joe Biden and the rise of Harris, we are all tired.
But this may not end today. This election can take days or even months. Votes will be counted and recounted. Trump, who has never conceded defeat, has already built a foundation to challenge the election results. This election will not truly end until the results are verified and whoever wins takes the oath of office on January 20, 2025.
Polymarket relies on that and allows gamblers to bet on what will happen. Whether you bet on Harris winning the popular vote or sweeping the election, you can still put your money on a Trump inauguration. And some people have put a lot of money on Trump already.
Like many polls, Polymarket’s odds on who wins the presidency took a hit after Harris entered the race. But the big trade hit the site and pushed the odds in Trump’s favor in early October. Reasons to trade bathing and whales. The Wall Street Journal found that the top four investors have shifted the odds on Polymarket in Trump’s favor.
He even tracked down one of the most degenerate people, a young French man who said he had “no political agenda at all.” He bet more than $30 million on Trump to win the presidency. If he wins, he gets $80 million. If he loses, it’s all over.
For election watchers in America, the numbers sound much higher than that.
Source link
