How America’s Election Matters Around the World

Israelis, if they knew, would vote for Trump in huge numbers – the polls clearly show that. But whoever succeeds, the long-term impact will likely be limited.

The Israeli public, not to mention the government, is more opposed to a Palestinian state and the two-state solution than it has been in decades. No US president is likely to change that. President Harris will likely put more pressure on Israel to reach a cease-fire agreement and open negotiations with the Palestinians. But it would not be possible, he said, to cut off military support to Israel.

President Trump will probably be less concerned about Israel allowing Jewish settlers to return to Gaza, as part of the Israeli government would like to do. He also takes a more aggressive line on Iran than Harris, which pleases many Israelis. But you don’t know exactly which side of the bed you will wake up on. He gets the idea that he’s more dangerous than he sounds, and recently he’s seemed reluctant to try to overthrow the Iranian regime.

Because of that uncertainty, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may feel that he can use another opportunity to manage Harris. So the thinking inside Israel may be more different than it seems.

Russia and Ukraine

Anton Troyanovski he is the Times’s Moscow correspondent.

This is a very important election for Russia and Ukraine. Trump said it was the fault of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine that Russia attacked. Ukrainians are worried that President Trump will force a quick and dirty peace deal in favor of Russia. They hope that President Harris will continue to support them on the battlefield.

However, in Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin sees much less difference between Trump and Harris in Ukraine than we might think. He believes that both Trump and Harris will be less committed to Ukraine than Biden.

Putin wants a deal, something he can call a victory. He believes that Ukraine is a puppet of the United States. So he believes he can get that deal only through negotiations with the American president. He publicly supported Harris. That may seem absurd, or counterintuitive, but Putin may think he can do business with him.

There is one way in which a Trump victory would clearly strengthen Putin: It would mean an America less involved in the world and in Europe, which Putin sees as his rightful sphere of interest.

China

Keith Bradsher is the Times’s Beijing Bureau chief.

No matter who wins, the next US president will be a hawk on China. But the people I talk to in Beijing are divided about who would be the best candidate for China. The exchange focused on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.

Chinese economic officials are well aware that Trump has called for tariffs on Chinese exports, which could be a major threat to China’s economy. This is a country that depends heavily on foreign demand, especially America, to keep its factories running and its workers employed. Manufacturing creates more wealth, and ends China’s worst housing market crash.

Meanwhile, China’s foreign policy is seeing the benefits of Trump’s election victory.

China feels very pressured by the efforts of the US, especially the Biden administration, to strengthen relations with many of China’s neighbors: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and above all Taiwan. Harris would likely continue those efforts. Trump is less committed to building and maintaining international alliances.

And Trump has shown very little interest in defending Taiwan. That is very welcome in Beijing.

Europe and NATO

Steven Erlanger he is The Times’ chief news correspondent, covering Europe.

In Europe, this US election feels like the end of an era, whatever the outcome.

Depending on who you talk to in Europe, Trump’s victory could be a nightmare or a gift. A growing European group of nativists – in Hungary, Italy, Germany and elsewhere – considers Trump to be the leader of their movement. If he regained the White House, he would make a stand and strengthen their hard line on immigration and national identity.

Meanwhile, many western European leaders are very worried. Trump’s talk of a 20 percent tariff reduction on all goods sold to the United States, including European goods, could spell disaster for the European economy. And of course, Trump has talked repeatedly about leaving NATO.

Even if the United States doesn’t officially leave NATO, Trump could seriously damage the alliance’s credibility if he says, “I’m not going to fight for some small European country.”

If Harris wins, it is felt that he, too, will be preoccupied at home and more concerned about China, and will expect the Europeans to do more for themselves. There is a strong sense in Europe that Biden was perhaps the last US president to align himself personally with the coalition built during the Cold War.

Global trade

Ana Swanson covers international trade and economics.

Donald Trump says “tariff” is “the best word in the dictionary. Better than love, better than respect.”

So this election is, among other things, a referendum on the entire global trade system, where US voters are making choices that could affect the rest of the world.

Harris, if elected, would maintain tariffs on Chinese goods on national security grounds. Trump is promising something bigger, more aggressive, imposing tariff levels not seen in nearly a century: 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products, and 60 percent or more on goods made in China.

This will hit more than $3 billion in US sales, and possibly lead to more trade wars, as other countries retaliate with their own costs. Many economists say we could end up with more taxes, less trade, less income and growth – a poorer world, in fact.

Can Trump do just that? Yes, he can. He has broad legal authority. And that would mean the United States is undermining the major international trade rules it helped create.

South Africa

John Eligon he is the chief executive of The Times in Johannesburg.

There is an interesting difference in how Africans see Harris and Trump. Despite Trump’s contemptuous dismissal of African countries, others see him as a powerful leader who makes things happen. In many ways he is like a lot of dictatorial African leaders.

Harris, in Africa, is known to have spent time in Zambia growing up, as the grandson of an Indian ambassador who lived there. And his being of African descent is deeply felt. He is considered the greatest person in the continent.

Biden – and possibly Harris – wants African countries to decarbonize, because most still rely on fossil fuels for energy. Trump probably wouldn’t have that focus, so his presidency might be desirable to countries that want to keep burning coal and oil and gas, instead of being dragged kicking and screaming into a clean energy transition.

South Africa feels pushed by the West, where it has the strongest economic ties, and the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, among others). It seems plausible that if Trump wins, he will isolate himself even more, and he may not mind watching countries like South Africa and Ethiopia move even closer to the BRICS.

in Mexico

Natalie Kitroeff He is the Mexico City bureau chief of The Times.

Mexico faces major challenges if Trump is elected. Tensions on the US-Mexico border are likely to increase. Mexico is the US’s largest trading partner, and could face heavy tariffs. And it will be the president’s next-door neighbor who has threatened to use US troops on Mexican soil.

But Mexico expects a tough immigration regime for whoever succeeds. Under President Harris, that would mean continuing the policies of the Biden administration that have become more restrictive over time. Migration is a shared problem. Migrants from all over the world pass through Mexico to reach the US border, and the United States cannot control the flow of migrants without Mexico’s help.

Trump has promised to deport 11 million people, most of them from Latin America – although experts doubt that will happen. But even a small number of evictions can have big consequences for the entire region.

Mexico has some strengths. But its leaders could certainly be backed into a corner by a bold Trump. And they know it.

The weather

Somini Sengupta is The Times’ international weather correspondent.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. The United States has emitted more carbon than any other country in history, and is now the second largest emitter after China. What it does next will affect the world’s ability to avoid catastrophic climate change.

If elected, Harris is likely to advance Biden’s policies of transitioning to renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions. What is not clear is whether he will restrict oil and gas production, since the United States now produces more oil and gas than any other country.

Trump, if he wins, may not completely reverse the policies of the Biden era. But he could overturn dozens of measures that regulate emissions from cars and power plants, eliminating the country’s ability to reduce emissions quickly enough.

Trump’s actions could also leave China without significant competition in renewable energy technologies such as batteries and electric cars. China is already leading that race.

Whoever wins the US election, the power transition has begun. But speed and scale are important. Trump could slow the transition to a crawl, which has potentially catastrophic consequences for the climate, and the planet.