And that demographic change should not be blamed on women’s emancipation. It is also puzzling that alarmists ignore the failure of men as a major cause of global climate change.
In general, men have not seen or adapted to the major economic, social and cultural changes that have taken place at work, in society and at home and in their personal relationships with women.
The unusually high rates of global population growth and young population structures experienced in the second half of the 20th century are over.
It is also true that many countries around the world are expected to experience population decline and aging in the coming decades.
In the early 1960s the world’s population grew at a record high of 2.3 percent, the global fertility rate was five children per woman and the world’s average life expectancy was 21 years. Today the world’s population growth rate is estimated at 0.9 percent, the global fertility rate is slightly above two children per woman and the world’s average age is 31 years.
By mid-century the world population growth rate is expected to drop to 0.4 percent. During that time the global fertility rate is expected to drop to two children per woman and the global average age to increase to 37 years.
The decline in population growth rates associated with the aging of the population is largely the result of reproductive decisions made by millions of women and men regarding the number and spacing of births. Those decisions are largely based on their personal preferences and socio-economic circumstances.
The world’s population is now just over 8 billion, having quadrupled over the past century. Almost all demographers recognize that the world’s population will probably increase during the current century
According to United Nations statistics (variable average), the world’s population is expected to continue to grow, possibly reaching 10.3 billion in about six decades. After reaching that level, the world’s population is expected to gradually decline to 10.2 billion by the end of the 21st century (Figure 1).
Despite two billion more people in the world, the alarmists are concerned to note that for the first time since the Black Death in the 14th century, the population of this planet will decrease. They are depressed and declare that many countries are facing the dire prospect of demographic collapse.
The expected decline in the population of many countries in the coming decades is often the result of fewer births than deaths. And the reason for the few births is below the changing fertility rates, that is, less than 2.1 children per woman.
More than 100 countries, representing two-thirds of the world’s population, are experiencing low fertility (Figure 2).
By 2023, the population of about 80 countries and territories will have experienced a fertility rate below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman. From the world’s lowest level of 0.72 per woman born in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate last year below the replacement rate, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan. , the United Kingdom and the United States (Figure 3).
In the absence of immigration compensation, most countries with low fertility rates face the possibility of population decline accompanied by an aging population. Among the countries facing population decline in the coming years are China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Ukraine (Figure 4).
Who is responsible for the changes below that are causing population decline and aging in countries around the world?
According to many who fear, the emancipation of women is the cause because the emancipated women simply choose not to reproduce enough to ensure the growth of the population in their country.
In large part because of dire concerns expressed about population decline, many government officials and the wealthy encourage and encourage their female citizens to have more children. Among their various pro-childbirth policies, governments offer cash incentives, child allowances, paid parental leave, flexible working hours, affordable childcare and financial assistance to families.
For example, China recently announced its effort to create a “birth-ready society”. The government has announced various incentives, including establishing a maternity grant scheme and various tax cuts for parents. In addition, families with many children will be given rights to buy houses, mortgages and large houses.
Despite decades of pro-natalist efforts, governments around the world have been unable to raise their fertility rates back to replacement levels. Some demographers have concluded that if a country’s fertility rate falls below the replacement rate, that is, less than 1.8 children born per woman, it is very difficult to increase it by any significant amount despite government policies, programs and spending.
The biggest and most often the focus of the alarmists is the economy of the country, that is, the growth of GNP, production, consumption, the size of the workforce, etc. It is not uncommon for those alarmists to sound alarm bells or raise serious concerns about important non-economic issues, such as climate change, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, gender equality and human rights.
Instead of trying to return to the population growth rates and structures of recent years, government officials, their economic advisors and the wealthy need to be aware and adapt to the changing climate of the 21st century. By doing so, they will be better prepared to plan and adapt to the many social, economic, environmental and climate benefits and opportunities and the many challenges that lie ahead.
And, to be clear, the global sky is not falling apart. It simply transitions to low or negative levels of national population growth associated with aging populations. And instead of blaming women’s emancipation, alarmists should seriously consider the failure of men as a significant factor contributing to global human climate change.
Joseph Chamie is a demographer, former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of many books on population issues, including his most recent book, “Human Standards, Trends, and Differences”.
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service
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