The height of the pandemic years saw millions of Americans move across the country. And that demographic shift in the housing market could have a big impact on political leanings in several states, which could affect the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election.
A study from Realtor.com finds that nine states could lean heavily Democratic in the upcoming election, while 22 could swing. Five of those are swing states.
The report is hardly scientific. Realor.com acknowledges that it has made certain assumptions based on the traditional location of home buyers on Realtor.com. To determine if a country is red or slightly green, examine the perceived political leanings of foreign buyers and the retention rate of local buyers. The report also warns that no people’s positions or political views are fixed (meaning that just because they voted one way in the past, that’s no guarantee they will do so again in 2024). Still, it offers a glimpse of how the housing epidemic could change the electoral map.
“As more people move across state lines, their voting patterns can have the power to influence election outcomes, especially in key states,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a statement. “This shift raises important questions about how immigration patterns may affect the future of American politics this year and beyond.”
Which states are likely to be affected by the new residents?
Swing says Wisconsin and Nevada could shift more to the green side by 2024, according to the housing market report. (Biden won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes in 2020, a margin of less than 1%, and carried Nevada by about 33,500 votes, a margin of 2.4%.)
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina would be deep red states, according to the report, based on local home buying trends. (Arizona and Georgia both went to Biden in 2020, with less than 15,000 votes separating him and Trump. North Carolina went to Trump.)
The polls seem to back up the data. Harris has slim leads in Wisconsin and Nevada, per data from Project 538. And Trump leads in three red-throw states.
Which hurling states are still rolling?
The housing market data for the two key transition regions is not inclusive. Both Michigan and Pennsylvania had mixed turnout, showing no clear direction in local voter sentiment. (Harris currently leads Trump in Project 538 polls in Michigan by the narrowest of margins—47.8% to 47% and in Pennsylvania by just a 0.7% margin.)
What other states are best in blue?
The four current blue states, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, and the District of Columbia, look set to trend toward green, according to the report. Meanwhile, three red states—Alaska, Florida and Ohio—are also changing to green.
What other states are trending red?
Seven previously blue-leaning states could see a shift to majority voting—California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, and Washington State. Another dozen, which were already red, appear to be redder: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming.
The shift in red and green voters is especially notable given how close the recent polls are for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. An NBC News poll, released Tuesday, showed the two candidates in the lead, each with 48 percent of registered voters.
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