Critical Patience Can Reduce Conflict Between Israel and Iran — Global Issues
WASHINGTON DC/OXFORD, Oct 09 (IPS) – How will Israel respond to Iran’s latest missile attack? “Strategic patience” is the best course. Israel has its hands full with Hamas and Hezbollah. Now is not the time to escalate a new major war with Iran, which could have nuclear consequences.
Israeli intelligence is still furious over its failure to stop the October 7 Hamas attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis. In the year since Hamas attacked, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched operations that killed 41,000 Palestinians.
Its response has been brutal but ineffective. Israel has failed to capture the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar or the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages. The humanitarian crisis led to starvation and displacement of more than two million people.
The IDF has since taken a major step to salvage its tarnished reputation by intercepting Iranian missiles. The “iron dome” deflected 190 ballistic missiles fired by Iran last week. Israel repelled another attack on April 13 involving 300 missiles and attack drones, which caused little damage.
Iran was embarrassed by the sequence of events, which went beyond its failed missile attack. I know from Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister of Iran, that Persian pride is important to the Iranian people. Iran has faced many challenges in the past year. President Ibrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash.
Masoud Pezeshkian, who supports cooperation with the United States, won the majority of the popular vote and became the president of Iran. The result was to blame Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his theocratic regime.
No event affected Iran more than the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. Nasrallah was a friend and served as the strongest representative of Iran for more than 30 years. Nasrallah was killed in an air strike in Beirut with 2,000 pound bunker bombs that destroyed the Southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahiyeh.
The airstrikes were another blow following Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies that killed dozens of Hezbollah commanders and crippled its communications system.
Hezbollah’s legendary reputation and military prowess vanished. Hezbollah was Iran’s most important proxy in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Nasrallah fought ISIS, defended Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war, and did the dirty work of the regime around the world.
Fearing his assassination, Khamenei was moved to a secure location. He appeared during Friday prayers to defend Iran’s missiles at Israel as “right, reasonable, and legitimate” and to denounce Israel’s “heinous crimes.”
Nasrallah’s death was a major blow to the Iranian regime. Iran was further embarrassed by the killing of Ismail Haniya, a senior Hamas official staying in an official guest house while attending Raisi’s funeral in Tehran.
Netanyahu warned that no place in the Middle East is safe from Israeli security services. He was right. In addition, the economic sanctions have harmed the Iranian people. The lifting of sanctions is a distant dream as the US and its G7 allies tighten screens on Iran’s economy.
Israel’s relationship with Iran is in the middle of the road. President Joe Biden urged Netanyahu to consider “alternatives” to attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities or destroying Iran’s oil infrastructure. There is another escalation of conflict.
Netanyahu and Khamenei must consider a new way now that the shadow war has come to light. Diplomacy will require assurances from Israel that it will not launch a first strike against Iran. Next, Iran must ensure that its nuclear program will not contain weapons.
Strategic talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency would improve safeguards, including inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities and renewed electronic surveillance. Of course, Israel will continue to operate in Gaza. Israel will hunt Sinwar until he is finished. You can’t face another October 7.
In Lebanon, Israel succeeded in killing Nasrallah and destroying half of Hezbollah’s 150,000 missiles. Its operation on the ground in Southern Lebanon cannot be opened. Having a failed regime on Israel’s northern border would lead to continued instability and danger.
Regional progress would not be possible if there was a new front between Israel and Iran. Strategic patience means that Israel will bide its time until there is an opportunity for technical progress. Diplomacy and diplomacy are better than endless war.
David L. Phillips is an assistant professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and a Visiting Research Scholar at the University of Oxford.
IPS UN Bureau
Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service
