A major geomagnetic storm is blocking its path toward Earth for the second time in five months, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned Wednesday. On the bright side, it could mean a resurgence of those beautiful auroras most of us saw earlier this year.
According to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, there is a chance that a G1, or minor storm, will hit Earth on Thursday, October 3, while a G3, or severe storm could hit the following day on Friday, October 4. Geomagnetic storms are caused by explosions in the Sun’s atmosphere, such as solar flares, which can, send large amounts of plasma shooting into space, eventually hitting our planet’s atmosphere.
Exactly that kind of explosion happened on Tuesday, with the second most powerful solar flare in the past few years. The flare originated in an area of the Sun known for its many sunspots, called Active Region 3842, and, according to NOAA, has a magnitude of X7.1. Flares are rated by their severity, with b-class flares being the weakest and ix-class being the strongest. Each letter marks a power increase of 10 times that of the lower one on the scale, so the X7.1 is very powerful. In fact, it was the second most powerful in the current solar cycle.
Previously, NOAA had warned that the flare could cause an event called a coronal mass ejection, which is a large ejection of plasma and other solar particles, and that now appears to be the case. Unlike sunlight, solar matter does not travel at the speed of light, and can take several days to reach Earth. NOAA did not say that the CME will definitely come to Earth, saying only a geomagnetic storm “likely” between October 3 and 5. The severity “will depend on the orientation of the embedded magnetic field,” according to the warning.
Although this may sound scary, the storm will not have a direct impact on people. The biggest risks are sensitive electrical systems, such as power grids and satellites. NOAA said that threat should be “limited,” “minimal,” and “significantly reduced.”
If you enjoy natural light shows, there may be the opposite. CMEs can lead to bright auroras in the sky, due to the same processes that result in the Northern Lights. NOAA said these bright auroras may be visible in many parts of the northern US, the lower Midwest, and even Oregon.
The sun’s activity is cyclical, rising and rising in periods that last about 11 years. We are currently in the midst of the twenty-fifth such cycle since it was first detected, and Tuesday’s outbreak was the second strongest on record since the cycle began back in 2020. At the time, astronomers predicted it would be a mild cycle, but those predictions appear to have been off. Solar Cycle 25 has been marked by a number of strong events, including a G4, or strong, geomagnetic storm back in May.
That storm was followed a few days later by an X8.7 blaze, the strongest on record during the current cycle.
NOAA also said Tuesday’s outbreak was “uncontrolled” in nature. In this context, that’s not to say that the rush stopped work to go see Skrillex in Vegas at the last minute, but rather that it quickly got up and down. And it seems to be divided, at least in the short term. At the very least, the Sun’s angry behavior means we can get some great shows in the sky.
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