Netanyahu’s election reappeared after the attack by Hezbollah

Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity, which suffered after the Hamas attack on October 7, has been boosted by his country’s military success against Hezbollah, a new opinion poll suggests.

A photo has been widely shared of the Israeli Prime Minister in New York giving the biggest order of all – the assassination of the head of the Lebanese armed group, Hassan Nasrallah.

A poll by Israel’s Channel 12, released Sunday night, shows that the Israeli Prime Minister’s Likud party will win more seats than any other in the general election.

However, it did not indicate that he would succeed, instead suggesting that the current opposition parties would have more MPs, which would enable him to form a coalition.

Fortunately for Netanyahu, his former political rival, Gideon Saar, also joined his flawed coalition government on Sunday, a move that should strengthen the prime minister.

“We will work together, shoulder to shoulder, and I intend to seek his help in forums that influence the conduct of the war,” said Netanyahu.

Saar will serve as a minister without portfolio with a seat in the Security Cabinet, the body responsible for managing the war against Israel’s regional enemies.

By joining the government with his four-seat party, Netanyahu has the strongest majority of 68 in the 120-seat parliament.

Rumors have been rife in recent weeks that the position of defense minister currently held by the popular, veteran military general, Yoav Gallant, will go to the less experienced Saar.

However, that move appeared to be abandoned as Israel launched a series of large-scale strikes against Hezbollah.

For Netanyahu, the new government structure weakens the power of the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir. The right-wing group has repeatedly threatened to topple the coalition if it continues with the “reckless” agreement to end the war in Gaza and bring the hostages home or if we agree to end the war with Hezbollah once and for all.

The coalition can now survive without six seats from Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power party, which will give Netanyahu more room to maneuver.

Once seen as Likud’s rising star, Saar left the party and became one of the prime minister’s most vocal critics, saying Netanyahu should not continue to serve while battling corruption charges. He framed his decision to join the government as an act of patriotism, promoting unity.

However, he has been heavily criticized by Israeli commentators, who describe him as a self-serving cynic.

“Saar’s decision to enter the government is a painful blow to many Israelis who think that Netanyahu must go, not just because he is being tried for crimes, not just because he is very corrupt, likes to be raped. the false prime minister Israel has ever had,” said Yedioth Ahronoth’s correspondent, Sima Kadmon.

He sees that his action will “sustain and expand the worst government ever to operate in Israel, so that the first day of the next election, in October 2026, now seems like a real day”.

Of course, the extra seats would also help solve another challenge facing Israel’s far-right government.

At this critical time of the war, when the military has an urgent need to increase its ranks, a split has been opened by the passing of a new conscription law.

Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in June that the state must begin recruiting soldiers from ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminaries. They are historically exempt, and such a move is strongly opposed by the two Orthodox groups on which the alliance depends.

Deepening his differences with the prime minister, in July, Yoav Gallant approved the first plan to send draft notices to 1,000 18-26 year olds from the Orthodox community.

A political strategist, Netanyahu – Israel’s longest-serving leader – saw a sharp drop in his party’s support in the polls at the end of last year.

His “Mr Security” image was badly damaged after the October 7 attack – the deadliest day in Israel’s history, when Hamas surprised one of the world’s best intelligence agencies and the region’s best-equipped military took hours to respond.

However, in August, opinion polls suggested that the prime minister had begun to back down.

That happened despite the Gaza offensive turning into Israel’s longest war with no sign of its goals being achieved: the complete destruction of Hamas and bringing home the remaining Israeli captives.

The latest poll gives Likud around 25 seats. In total, the coalition parties are expected to take 49 seats, while the opposition parties will get 66.

According to a Channel 12 survey, Netanyahu remains the favorite for the prime ministership over the opposition leader, Yair Lapid – with 38% in favor of him over his rival’s support of 27%.

Much of Israeli politics hinges on what happens next as Israel’s multi-faceted war reaches a critical juncture.

As Israel points to a land attack in southern Lebanon, tens of thousands of Israeli citizens in the north of the country still do not know when they will return to their homes – which is Israel’s official goal.

If Hezbollah’s main ally Iran decides to attack, the results are unpredictable.

On the international stage, Israel looks isolated. International courts are considering whether to prosecute Israel for murder and seek arrest warrants for the prime minister and defense minister over alleged crimes against humanity.

The final test of Netanyahu’s mettle is yet to come.