Adobe recently released its forecast for the 2024 US holiday shopping season, predicting a record $240.8 billion in online sales from November 1 to December 31, an 8.4% increase compared to last year. Based on data from Adobe Analytics, which tracks more than 1 billion visits to US retail websites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories, the report provides the most comprehensive insight into seasonal commerce trends.
IE-commerce Surge Led by Mobile Shopping
The 2024 holiday season is expected to be the most mobile-driven to date, with $128.1 billion expected to be spent on mobile devices, representing 53.2% of online sales. This is a significant change in desktop purchases, with mobile sales growing at 12.8% year-over-year (YoY).
Cyber Week (Thanks to Cyber Monday) is expected to contribute $40.6 billion in holiday spending, while Cyber Monday will remain the biggest shopping day of the year, bringing in a record billion dollars 13.2, up 6.1% YoY. However, Black Friday is predicted to grow faster, with sales reaching $10.8 billion (9.9% YoY growth), surpassing the growth of Cyber Monday. Thanksgiving will see strong returns, with estimated sales of $6.1 billion (up 8.7% YoY).
Deep Discounts for Consumer Spending
Shoppers will be treated to strong discounts, with price reductions of up to 30% across all major categories. Discounts on electronics are expected to increase by 30%, while TVs will see discounts of up to 24%. Sports goods, clothing, and toys will also feature significant discounts, contributing to Adobe’s forecast of an additional $2 billion to $3 billion in increased online spending driven by promotions.
Consumers Trade Up for Discounts
After months of choosing low-priced goods due to inflation, consumers are expected to “trade up” for more expensive products during the holiday season, driven by competitive discounts. The share of high-value goods sold is expected to increase by 19%, with major increases in categories such as sporting goods (up 76%), electronics (up 58%), and electronics (up 40%).
Social Influences and Generative AI Driving Consumer Behavior
Influencers are playing a growing role in consumer decision-making, with Adobe data showing that influencer-driven shopping is 10 times more effective than traditional social media marketing. During the 2024 holiday season, 37% of Gen Z respondents to an Adobe study said they purchased a product based on an influencer’s recommendation.
Generative AI is also making a significant impact, as traffic to retail sites from AI-powered chatbots doubled by 2024. Consumers are increasingly using generative AI to find deals, with 20% of respondents using it to find the best deals and 19% to find them. some things on the internet.
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Continues to Grow
BNPL will play a major role in this year’s holiday shopping, with $18.5 billion in online spending expected to be driven by the payment method, an 11.4% increase. In November alone, $9.5 billion will be spent on BNPL, making it the largest month in history, and Cyber Monday is expected to drive nearly $1 billion in BNPL transactions.
Top categories and products
Electronics, clothing, and furniture are expected to drive more than half of online holiday spending, with electronics alone accounting for $55.1 billion, an 8.5% increase. Other high-growth categories include toys ($8.1 billion, up 5.8% YoY) and sporting goods ($7.2 billion, up 5.5% YoY). Top sellers of the season are expected to include toys such as LEGO sets and the Bluey Ultimate Lights and Sounds Playhouse, as well as electronics such as the iPhone 16 and Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra.
