Daniil Medvedev’s knuckleball in the era of fastballs | ATP Tour

Beyond the Numbers

Hand quantity: Medvedev’s knuckleball in the era of fastballs

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyzes Medvedev’s backhand

September 24, 2024

No one loves their backhand more than Daniil Medvedev.

The Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers groundstroke analysis from the 2024 season identifies Medvedev as the only player in the Top 20 who has hit more hands than ever before. The data set is from ATP matches on Hawk-Eye courts. Medvedev is the master of the “backhand cage” technique, where he locks his opponents in an acute angle ad-court exchange, daring them to risk themselves by trying to escape his ropes down the line.

It’s damned if you do, and it’s damned if you don’t have a critical stance on Medvedev’s opponents. They have less chance of getting him out of the backhand from the backhand, while at the same time hitting down the line to escape the backhand closing pattern also comes with a higher risk.

The six players in the top 20 of the PIF ATP Rankings who reached the highest percentage of handshakes are:

1) Daniel Medvedev 53.1%
2) Alex de Minaur 49.4%
3) Taylor Fritz 49%
4) Sebastian Korda 48.9%
5) Novak Djokovic 48.9%
6) Frances Tiafoe 48.2%

What is impressive is that Medvedev is the one who leads the Top 20 who puts the most shoulders on the court. He was the only player in the data set who placed north of 90% of his hands in play.

The six players who put at least 87 percent of their hands on the field are:

1) Daniel Medvedev 90.2%
2) Novak Djokovic 88.3%
3) Jack Draper 88%
4) Casper Ruud 87.8%
5) Alexander Zverev 87.3%
6) Alex de Minaur 87%

Medvedev hit 3,253 backhands in the data set. He only missed 319. The average ATP Tour backhand speed is 68 mph. Medvedev’s backhand is like that. He doesn’t overcook this shot by trying to play with opponents, but he also doesn’t just push it in the middle.

Medvedev rarely uses his back wing piece. The Tour average is 21 percent of the backhand slice in 2024. Medvedev is only at nine percent. He can simply contort his body into unusual positions to drive the ball back down and deep, always giving his opponents nothing to work with.

Medvedev hits his backhand better than most. The tour average for backhand topspin is 1,775 rpm. Medvedev reaches only 1,496 rpm. Flatter equals lower. The average backhand length tour over the net is 0.73 meters. Medvedev is 0.69 meters. Opponents are used to a high ball with topspin. All Medvedev worries about is making his opponents uncomfortable.

Medvedev’s backhand is simply a different animal.

There is nothing about Medvedev’s backhand that opponents look forward to. He puts an absurd amount of backhands into play. It comes at you in a flat almost dead area below your strike zone. Opponents don’t know what to do with it other than spit it out and take it back to court. That’s the first mistake. Trying to attack Medvedev’s backhand encourages over-hitting. That is the second mistake.

Medvedev is a throwback to an era of more hand holding and raw raw power. His back is confusing and confusing. The knuckleball in the era of fastballs. As the Tour returns to hard outdoor courts in Asia and hard indoor courts in Europe to finish the year, Medvedev will be at home on his favorite turf doing the Medvedev thing that completely baffles the opposition.