Uruguay will hold national elections on October 27. With South American politics still in turmoil, Uruguay is one of the few remaining islands of stability and progressive thinking. Nevertheless, the situation remains difficult as the country has several challenges. There are three presidential nominees who will replace President Luis Lacalle Pou (incumbent 2020): Yamandú Orsi (Broad Front or Frente Amplio); Álvaro Delgado (National Party or Partido Nacional); and Andrés Ojeda (Colorado Party or Partido Colorado). Recent polls show Orsi with more than 40% of the vote, with Delgado in second place with 20%. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the two with the most votes will have a run-off on 24 November.
Although three of the candidates are men, both Orsi and Delgado have women running as vice presidents: Carolina Cosse, an engineer, and Valeria Ripoll, a unionist, respectively. President Lacalle represents the National Party; it is clear that the dissatisfaction of the people of Uruguay with regard to the presidency of Lacalle interferes with their decision not to vote for Delgado of the same party. “The current administration is criticized for its handling of security issues and the water crisis, which affected the capital, Montevideo, last year,” the analysis explained, adding that corruption scandals have also “eroded” the credibility of the ruling party. One scandal, in particular, is related to the President’s inner circle: in 2022, Alejandro Astesiano, head of the President’s security team, was arrested and sentenced to four and a half years in prison for influence peddling and revealing state secrets, among other crimes. .
Uruguay’s nearly 2.8 million eligible voters will also elect 30 senators, 99 deputies and vote in two referendums. The referendum reflects the great concern of the people of Uruguay today. The first is public security, as one referendum will deal with changes to the security sector, particularly allowing nighttime police raids on homes. Another referendum is about social security, and it was proposed by the National Trade Union Association (Plenario Intersindical de Trabajadores – Convención Nacional de Trabajadores: PIT-CNT).
Uruguay is generally stable politically and socio-economically, and the last military conflict ended almost four decades ago (1973-85). However, the country continues to face major challenges. For example, Uruguay’s reputation as an economically stable country has been questioned in recent years. By 2023, economic growth has slowed to just 0.4%, an inevitable consequence of the recent drought and COVID-19. However, institutional issues have persisted over the years without significant change. Despite the low overall poverty rate of 6%, children, youth, and ethnic minorities make up a large portion of that number. Additionally, access to education has not caught up with Uruguay’s economic growth. Most voters are aware of these recent economic setbacks and may consider them when choosing their representatives in October.
The country continues to struggle in its fight against drug trafficking, especially in the port of Montevideo. As it was exported to Europe, the authorities failed to contain illegal trading activities in the city. In 2019, the US DEA closed shop in the region, despite requests from the Lacalle Pou Administration to return. The situation in Montevideo shows a slow rising crime wave in recent years, with homicides increasing by nearly 40 percent as recently as 2022. There is no doubt that Uruguayans will continue to prioritize law and order at the ballot box this year as the situation worsens. There are also other types of crime and insecurity that are on the rise. For example, this year there have been many incidents of violence in schools, including teachers being beaten. In September, the teachers’ union called a 24-hour strike in Montevideo schools to protest the situation.
The next President will inherit a military that continues to need new tools to operate and do their jobs properly. The Ministry of Defense of Uruguay announced the purchase of six Embraer A-29 Super Tucano aircraft to improve the combat capabilities of the air force; however, more is needed. There is an ongoing scandal over the purchase of two coastal patrol vessels from Spain’s Cardama shipyard for the Navy.
In terms of foreign policy, Uruguay’s next head of state will have to decide whether to maintain the country’s status quo in relation to Venezuela, where President Lacalle Pou and his government have consistently criticized Maduro’s authoritarian rule. On July 28, dictator President Nicolas Maduro “won” an election, which many governments and organizations called free and unfair. The result sparked mass protests in Venezuela and a subsequent violent crackdown on security forces.
Uruguay is not the kind of country that makes international headlines. In fact, since the return to democracy, elections have taken place without much fanfare. Uruguayan consulting firm Cifra has described “all [Uruguay’s] the history of democracy, the people of Uruguay do not succeed in disturbing attitudes. In neighboring countries, when [the population] tired of one government, they tend to choose someone who promises ‘chainsaw’ [of reforms]; here, at least so far, the population does not like big changes.” Similarly, political analyst Agustín Canzani says, “Uruguay is a democratic society … there is little tolerance for other things that can be done by dictatorship, dissatisfaction with the government does not lead to major changes.”
Uruguay’s reputation as South America’s safest country is well-earned. However, economic uncertainty and rising crime rates are challenges that cannot be ignored. The next president will be tasked with maintaining a strong foreign policy to isolate Maduro’s Venezuela and the fight against crime will likely require international cooperation, which only the next president can do.
Further Studies in E-International Relations
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