Asteroid Apophis Won’t Hit Earth in 2029—Unless This Weird Situation Is in Play

Asteroid Apophis does not currently pose a threat to Earth if it passes by in a few years, but astronomers have envisioned a scenario where that could change.

The good news is that a series of uncontrollable events—such as cosmic bullets colliding at full speed and deflecting one at an incredibly precise angle—would have to occur for this catastrophe to occur.

In 2021, NASA released an analysis of Apophis’ trajectory, concluding that the asteroid poses no threat to Earth in the near future. While there will be close passes in 2029 and 2036, and a close approach in 2068, NASA’s calculations found no risk of a direct impact. In fact, NASA officials said our planet should be safe from Apophis for another 100 years.

Paper published in Planetary Science Journal last March we supported that conclusion—mostly. In the paper, Paul Wiegert, an astronomer at Canada’s Western University, said that, although Apophis’ current path is not a threat, the asteroid will have a close encounter in December 2026 with another asteroid, 4544 Xanthus. The two orbits will bring the asteroids within less than 6,200 miles (10,000 kilometers) of each other, but they will reach that closest point about four hours apart, eliminating the risk of a direct collision. However, any object aligned with Xanthus could still hit Apophis, potentially altering its path and sending it toward Earth. Gulp.

Wiegert has now revised his calculations in a new study published in the same journal, determining that there is a real—albeit incredibly small—chance that Apophis could collide with the dwarf sky, knocking it off its current path. Although Wiegert admitted that the chances are “extremely small,” he pointed out that collisions between asteroids and other asteroids or comets have been observed.

Wiegert also pointed out that Apophis is not on a direct collision course with any of the 1.2 million known asteroids. However, there are many asteroids too small to track, many of which strike Earth each year.

According to his calculations, if an asteroid of sufficient mass and speed could hit Apophis at the right time, it would spell trouble for humans. What are the odds? The odds of Apophis being hit by something are less than one in a million and the odds of that strike deflecting toward Earth are “less than one in 1 billion,” Wiegert wrote.

According to the study, Apophis is currently in the daytime sky and will not be visible until 2027. But once we see it, we will quickly know when we are in trouble. “Most of the risk of an impact could be eliminated with a single observation of Apophis in 2027,” Wiegert wrote. If the collision happened just before the asteroid came out of the Sun’s glare, it might not be immediately apparent that Apophis was redirected to our planet, but the appearance of debris could be a sign that something big had happened, alerting astronomers to calculate a new one. route.

Appropriately, given the unpredictable sequence of events necessary for Apophis to strike Earth, the sky is named after the Egyptian god of chaos.

As Apophis approaches Earth, plans are in place for it to pick up several companions, including NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX—the spacecraft formerly known as OSIRIS-REx. The probe, which previously visited the asteroid Bennu, will investigate Apophis in June 2029, after the asteroid’s April 2029 flyby.

In addition, the European Space Agency is preparing a spacecraft, called the Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety (Ramses), which will be sent to meet the sky during its journey. On Ramses will be two small CubeSats that will observe how the asteroid’s physical properties change due to Earth’s gravity as it flies past. The main goal is to collect space data that can provide clues about how terrestrial planets formed and evolved. ESA has also expressed hope that it can also help develop planetary defense systems against future cosmic objects in collision studies with Earth. Ramses is currently scheduled for launch in April 2028.

Even if this worst case scenario were to come true, it might not mean the end of humanity; an asteroid may present a disaster, rather than an existential threat. Apophis is about 1,100 meters (340 meters) long, which may sound huge, but the asteroid believed to have killed the dinosaurs is estimated to have been between six and nine miles (10 to 15 kilometers) in diameter. So even if you are a disloyal person to Apophis, things could get worse.