Russia is closing in on a key city in Eastern Ukraine in one of the fastest advances in its military since the early days of the war. If Russia captures the city, Pokrovsk, it will gain a huge advantage in capturing the entire Donbas region.
Source: Center for the Study of War and Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute
Note: From 8th September
Pokrovsk is central to many railway and road routes throughout the Donbas. A successful Russian attack would cut supply lines to the remaining Ukrainian strongholds across the region, and would position Moscow’s forces to attack Ukrainian positions south of the city.
The challenges are dire in Ukraine. Sometimes in August, its soldiers retreated more than a kilometer a day.
Two dense lines of Ukrainian fortifications remained between the front line and the city, with anti-tank trenches to slow the advance of Russian vehicles and dozens of circular trenches to protect infantry and mortar units.
Sources: Satellite image from Planet Labs; local control from the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Last week, Ukraine sent more troops to secure the lines around Pokrovsk. Russia switched from a direct attack towards the city to an attack to the south, extending its front and threatening to encircle the Ukrainian army between Pokrovsk and the city of Kurakhove. The Russian semi-circle created in the area is a technique known as creating a “cauldron.”
The advance towards Pokrovsk has been the most successful part of Russia’s offensive in the Donbas this summer. Elsewhere, it attacked much of the eastern front but after months of heavy fighting made only minor gains. The year-long assault on the hill town of Chasiv Yar, for example, has advanced nearly three miles.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Note: From 8th September
While the frontline is moving rapidly over the summer near Pokrovsk, the overall Russian offensive in the Donbas has become more expensive and more frequent.
Meanwhile, Ukraine launched its surprise attack on the Kursk region in August. It has taken more ground in Russia in a month than Russia did in Ukraine a year ago, although its hold on its gains in Russia will still be tested against a heavy attack.
But Russia has continued to push forward in Donbas, and President Vladimir V. Putin has said that the Russian military will not withdraw troops from the area to counter Ukraine’s advance on Russia.
However, this fast phase of the war may end with heavy rains slowing down movement on both sides as all paved roads become muddy tracks impassable for heavy vehicles.
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