Is the deal still possible?

Earlier this week, on live television, the mother of one of the Israeli hostages held in Gaza made a promise to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar: Free all 109 hostages – dead and alive – in exchange for the children of Israeli security officials.

But Ditza Or, whose son Avinatan was kidnapped at the Nova music festival during the October 7 attack, wasn’t pushing Israel’s leaders to sign a cease-fire — she was pushing them to fight Hamas harder.

Ms. Or, along with a number of other pro-war hostage families, are likely allies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under intense pressure from his US allies, his security chiefs and his defense minister to compromise and reach out. agreement.

Leaked reports of a recent phone call with his most important colleague suggested that US President Joe Biden told the Israeli leader at one point to “stop insulting him”. The implication: that Mr. Netanyahu did not want a deal at all.

As talks falter in Cairo this week, aimed at bridging the gap between Israel and Hamas, Israeli media leaks suggest the gap between Mr Netanyahu and his negotiators and defense officials is widening.

According to Dana Weiss, senior political analyst for Israel TV Channel 12, the prime minister has privately accused key negotiators and security chiefs of “weakness”, portraying himself as an independent defender of Israel’s interests.

They have different approaches to the urgency of the deal, he says, and one reason for that is the different level of responsibility each feels.

“The soldiers felt guilty on October 7, and they felt responsible for returning the hostages,” he explained. “Our government, our ministers especially Prime Minister Netanyahu who feel guilty on October 7th, put the blame entirely on the military, so they don’t feel that urgency to continue with the agreement.”

Mr Netanyahu said getting the hostages home was his second priority in the war – after defeating Hamas, and stressed his commitment to Israel’s security “despite enormous domestic and foreign pressure”.

The man who once cherished his reputation as Israel’s ‘Mr Security’ appears to be playing at it again, 10 months after that image was shattered by the October 7 attack.

Central to the talks is whether the Israeli army withdraws from the strip of land bordering Gaza and Egypt, known as the Philadelphia Corridor.

Mr Netanyahu appears to be sticking firmly to the “red line” of keeping Israeli troops there, citing Israel’s security needs, despite leaks suggesting negotiators believe it is a “deal breaker”.

Hamas chief Hussam Badran told the BBC on Friday that the group would not accept anything less than the withdrawal of Israeli troops, and that Mr Netanyahu’s position showed that he did not want a deal, but was “in a frenzy.”[ing] by using empty conversations to gain time”.

Hamas appears to be facing tough questions about what Gaza or the Palestinians gained from the October attack, after more than 10 months of bombing and displacement.

Agreeing on a prisoner exchange seems easier for the group to swallow than accepting the continued presence of the Israeli army in Gaza, as well as checkpoints for civilians moving to the north.

Egypt is also understood to reject any deal that does not include the Palestinian people ruling on the other side of their shared border.

Hamas has not officially joined the current talks, and many believe that Mr. in big deals to get rid of it.

The risk of a wider escalation – between threats from Iran and Hezbollah – is one of the reasons Washington is pushing hard for a deal. The United States is three months away from the presidential election, and President Biden’s administration believes that a ceasefire in Gaza will help calm the region.

Political analyst, Dana Weiss, says that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant admits that if Israel does not take the path of a cease-fire agreement – even temporarily – then it will be on a sure path to escalation.

He says: “For the prime minister, it is completely different. He answers: No, if we advance to Sinwar now, Hezbollah and Iran will see that we are weak. We have to finish the work with Hamas, to stop the war.”

But, he says, Mr Netanyahu also has domestic political motives for stalling the talks. Among those encouragements is the fact that, after months of poor approval ratings, he is now climbing again in opinion polls.

Several polls have recently placed him at the top of respondents’ voting intentions, both in terms of his far-right party, Likud, and his profile as a leader – results that would have been unimaginable just a few months ago.

All eyes are now on the next scheduled speeches, which will take place on Sunday. Meanwhile, it is reported that Egypt has agreed to share with Hamas the latest Israeli proposal regarding the border area.

Mediators insist that a deal is still possible, but hopes on all sides appear to be dwindling.

After meeting the Israeli prime minister today, Ella Ben Ami, who is the daughter of another Israeli hostage, said she looked Benjamin Netanyahu in the eyes and asked him to promise to do everything and not give up until they return.

He was left, he said, “with a heavy and heavy feeling that this is not going to happen soon”.

The clock is ticking on these negotiations: for the people of Gaza, for the Israeli captives still held there in the tunnel, for the entire region.

But for Mr Sinwar and Mr Netanyahu, perhaps the most powerful weapon they have in this battle is time.