Diplomatic Tightrope for Indian PM as he visits Kyiv after Moscow

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Ukraine on Friday to hold talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky. This trip comes a few weeks after he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The visit is important because Kyiv and other Western capitals have reacted strongly Mr. Modi’s visit to the Russian capital in July.

Mr Zelensky was very critical, saying he was “disappointed to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy embracing the world’s bloodiest criminal in Moscow”.

So, did Mr. Modi visit Kyiv to put Mr. Zelensky and other Western leaders?

Not completely.

It is not surprising to see India balancing its relations between two competing countries or blocs. The country’s popular approach to non-alignment with the country’s politics has worked well for decades.

Friday’s visit – the first by an Indian prime minister to Ukraine – is about pointing out that while India will continue to have strong ties with Russia, it will also engage more with the West.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think-tank in Washington, says the trip will reaffirm India’s strategic independence.

“India is not in the business of imposing Western powers, or anyone for that matter. The trip is aimed at promoting Indian interests, by ensuring friendship with Kyiv and conveying its concerns about the ongoing war,” he said.

However, the timing of the visit shows that Indian politicians have taken a strong stance from the US over Mr Modi’s visit to Moscow.

India has it he refused to criticize Russia directly war, which angered the Western powers.

Delhi, however, often talks about the importance of respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations. It continues to advance negotiations and negotiations to end the war.

Mr Modi’s visit to Moscow in July came hours after a bomb blast in Russia that killed at least 41 people in Ukraine, including at a children’s hospital in Kyiv, sparked international outrage.

The Prime Minister of India said that the death of children is sad and scary but stopped short of blaming Russia.

Mr Modi is unlikely to deviate from this stance during his visit to Kyiv. The US and other Western countries have grown to accept Delhi’s stance, given India’s time-tested relationship with Moscow and its reliance on Russian military services.

India, the world’s largest arms buyer, has diversified its defense portfolio and increased domestic production in recent years but still buys more than 50% of its defense equipment from Russia.

India has also increased its oil imports from Russia, taking advantage of the cheap prices offered by Moscow – Russia was India’s leading supplier of oil last year.

The US and its allies have often urged India to take a clear stand on the war but have also refused to apply heavy sanctions or pressure.

The West also sees India as a counterweight to China and does not want to upset that dynamic. India, now the fifth largest economy in the world, is also a growing business market.

Mr Kugelman says the West will welcome the visit and see it as Delhi’s willingness to engage with all parties.

“Mr Modi has a strong incentive to show that he is not so dependent on Moscow that there is nothing he can do about Kyiv,” he said.

This is important because India wants to continue growing its relations with the West, especially with the US, and does not want to disrupt the momentum. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, recently said that the relationship should not be “taken for granted”.

India also needs the West as China, its Asian rival, and Russia have developed closer ties in recent years.

While Delhi has long viewed Moscow as a force that can put pressure on a strong China when needed, it will not be taken lightly.

At the time, many media commentators spoke of the possibility that Mr Modi would position himself as a peacemaker, given India’s close ties with Moscow and the West.

But it is unlikely that he will come up with a peace plan.

“Is India really ready, and are the conditions right? India does not like other countries trying to mediate in its affairs, chief among them Kashmir. And I don’t think Mr. Modi can legally offer arbitration unless Russia and Ukraine want it. And at the moment, I don’t think they do,” added Mr Kugelman.

Ukraine, however, is yet to welcome Mr Modi’s visit and see it as an opportunity to reach out to its close ally Moscow, something it has not done much of since the war began.

Mr Zelensky, however, is unlikely to hold back his criticism of Mr Putin in front of the Indian Prime Minister. Mr Modi can live with that as he has faced such situations many times with other Western officials.

It is possible that Moscow will not react to this visit as it has also made an agreement with Delhi on a different approach to geopolitics.

But apart from reaffirming its policy of non-alignment, Delhi also has big intentions for this visit.

India has been expanding its relations with Europe over the last decade, especially with the underserved regions of Central and Eastern Europe.

Delhi wants to continue to consolidate its relations with the big four – the UK, Italy, Germany and France – but also wants to expand relations with other European countries.

Mr Modi is also visiting Poland on this trip – the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the country in 45 years. He also became the first Indian prime minister to visit Austria in 41 years in July.

Analysts say this shows India’s growing understanding that Central European countries will play a bigger role in the country’s politics in the future and that stronger ties with them will serve Delhi well.

The Indian government has also renewed trade talks with Europe. It has signed a trade and investment agreement with the European Free Trade Association, which is an association of the governments of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

So, while the focus will be on the war during his visit, Indian politicians are likely to remain focused on the larger goal.

“Central and Eastern Europe now has a major center in writing their future and reshaping regional politics. Mr Modi’s visit to Warsaw and Kyiv is about witnessing that major shift in the heart of Europe and deepening political, economic and security ties with Central European states,” wrote foreign policy analyst C Raja Mohan. the Indian Express The newspaper, summarizes Mr. Modi’s broad objective.