Kamala Harris’s quick, unexpected transition from low-level vice president to Democratic presidential nominee has moved the 2024 election up in the air in just a few weeks.
Across the Pacific Ocean, Harris’s story may resonate with New Zealanders, like me, who see similarities to Jacinda Ardern, the younger, more politically astute, and her sudden rise to the leadership of her party in 2017. the political party was headed for a decisive defeat in the upcoming elections.
Since President Joe Biden announced on July 21, 2024 that he will not seek re-election, Harris has closed the gap in at least one major election between Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump. Harris also brought in huge donations and volunteer registrations, received the support of 99% of Democratic National Committee delegates, and has been praised for injecting excitement into the campaign and giving Democratic voters hope.
Ardern, likewise, became her party’s leader and prime ministerial contender after New Zealand’s Labor Party leader Andrew Little, 52, saw no way to win and withdrew seven weeks before the September 2017 election.
Ardern’s 11th-hour promotion gave the campaign a boost and put it into what Ardern called “permanent life.” Ardern quickly assembled her party and eventually, when the votes were counted and a coalition formed, she got the top job as prime minister.
Ardern’s whirlwind campaign and presence show some of the pitfalls that other female leaders, like Harris, can face, including being forced to appear competent and likable while fending off hateful attacks.
There is no way forward
In the first few months of 2017, it looked like the National Party in New Zealand would win again after nine years in government.
After months of negative poll results, Little, the leader of the Labor Party, believes his party will lose the election.
Little also followed his deputy, Ardern, in the prime ministerial election – despite Ardern again announcing that he did not want to be prime minister.
Little resigned on July 31, 2017. Hours later, Labor politicians unanimously nominated Ardern as their leader.
Ardern, who was 37 at the time, accepted the nomination. He promised that he and his team would be “ready, organized and ready.” He gave himself three days to prepare the campaign.
A campaign of unity
By connecting with voters and focusing on positive engagement, Ardern’s short campaign has brought together a party known for its tough fight.
The following may seem familiar to most people who follow American politics today. Ardern kicked off her campaign with a photo of herself smiling, with the caption: “Let’s Do This.” He has held interesting campaigns across the country. And the community responded.
As a culture, we New Zealanders tend to shy away from being happy. So, the “Jacindamania” phenomenon was amazing.
The crowds are full of selfies with Ardern. Ardern’s face was plastered on merchandise and featured on political posters across social media.
Donations and volunteer registrations in the Labor Party have increased. So, too, he made contributions to the opposition National Party, as Ardern created real competition.
A common message of happiness
As a candidate for prime minister, Ardern has embraced and promoted her brand of “unrelenting optimism,” as she puts it.
The opposition tried to portray him as ignorant and superficial and launched attack ads – softer than American voters expect to see in a political campaign, but rare in New Zealand politics.
The attack did little to undermine Ardern’s resilience. If anything, the jabs stood in contrast to his positive messages. Ardern’s Facebook Lives with supporters have always been lively. His interviews and press conferences combined elegance and detailed policy knowledge.
It seems that “endless hope” came with New Zealanders through the power of Ardern’s charisma. His opponent, in his words, “specializes in being boring.” A famous journalist wrote about the “state of change,” despite the economy strengthening by many measures, despite the housing crisis.
Harris’ early voting gains against Trump suggest a similar story. The sexist and racist attacks against Harris seem to be on the decline, at least so far.
Instead, memes and clips of Harris dancing, laughing and talking to large crowds of supporters have gone viral.
Harris, in response to Trump’s attacks, dismissed him as “the same old show.”
Changing gender politics
Gender stereotypes still play a role in how voters perceive leaders. Both Democratic and Republican female politicians are considered more liberal than their male counterparts. But again, in a study conducted in 35 countries – including New Zealand but not the US – groups led by women were seen as “less extreme.”
Both Ardern and Harris are liberals with moderate voting records. Trump’s efforts to frame Harris as a “left-wing lunatic” are inconsistent with his previous record as a prosecutor and corporate evasion.
Ardern’s advantage, on the other hand, is that she has attracted both centrist and left-leaning voters. He did this by playing up the positive aspects of his campaign, while making controversial calls, such as opposing tax reform, that frustrated some hopefuls of progressive leadership.
Harris may also have a chance to win over both moderate voters and provide a better alternative to Trump.
American voter studies
Should Harris succeed in his presidential bid, Ardern’s experience offers a note of caution.
Ardern was targeted with unprecedented levels of violent hate speech, insults and death threats. This worsened throughout his leadership and escalated during the April 2022 violence at the Parliament sit-in by protesters who wanted to end the country’s COVID-19 restrictions.
By 2023, Ardern’s support had plummeted, predicting her party’s ouster from the leadership.
Disinformation researcher Kate Hannah suggested that the violent rhetoric against Ardern may have influenced her decision to resign in January 2023. At the time, Ardern said, “I know what this job takes, and I know I don’t have enough left in the tank to do it justice. “
Republican attacks on Harris, meanwhile, may not work well if they have little time to sink into voters’ minds. But attacks tend to increase over time.
Ardern’s last-minute ascension to the leadership could provide other Democrats with an example to consider as they head into November. But Ardern’s story offers reasons to panic for those who hope for brutal politics.
Lydia Nobbs is a PhD student in politics at The New School.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the first article.
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