Thai heir brings back divisive monarchy. But how long?

Paetongtarn Shinawatra brings a fresh, new face, and another member of the powerful Shinawatra family, to the country’s top job.

She is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the ousted former Prime Minister who returned to Thailand last August after 15 years in exile.

The 37-year-old suspect is also ethnic the youngest prime minister in Thailand’s historyand only the second woman – the first was his aunt Yingluck Shinawatra.

Known in Thailand by her nickname Ung Ing, Ms Paetongtarn has become a household name here since leading her party, Pheu Thai, in last year’s general election. She proved to be a popular campaigner, speaking at rallies until her last month pregnant with her second child.

However, his family, especially his mother Potjaman, who is still a powerful figure in Pheu Thai, did not want him to become prime minister, fearing that he would be vulnerable to the legal intervention that forced both Ms. Yingluck and Mr. Thaksin into exile. .

But an unexpected court decision that overturned Srettha Thavisin’s premiership earlier this week forced the family’s hand. Apart from Mr Srettha, Pheu Thai had only two other PM candidates who are eligible to replace him; Ms. Paetongtarn was one, the other being a judge who created party MPs who believed she did not have the strength or passion to lead them in the next election, which is expected in three years.

Ms Paetongtarn’s main experience was working for the Shinawatra-owned Rende hotel group. He was not expected to enter politics, and joined the Pheu Thai party in 2021.

When he takes the job of prime minister, he enters a political field full of bombs.

He describes himself as a compassionate, social liberal capitalist who fully supports Thailand’s new marriage equality law.

But the phrase most people will remember her using is “daddy’s girl”. No matter what you do in the government, it will always be assumed that you are acting under the orders of your father. And Mr Thaksin remains a very divisive figure.

His return from exile a year ago was the result of a major deal with the powerful Conservative Party. They include the military, which ousted two Shinawatra governments from coups, and pro-royalist groups, which have opposed Mr Thaksin for more than two decades.

The resounding success of the reformist Move Forward party in last year’s election, pushing Pheu Thai and the Shinawatra clan into second place for the first time, forced the Conservatives, whose parties fared the worst, into retreat.

As Move Forward sought reform of the lese majetse law and the power of the military, Pheu Thai, whose free-spending populism is now being copied by many other groups, was no longer a serious threat.

Pheu Thai was therefore allowed to assemble a coalition of 11 parties, many of whom were long-time enemies of Mr Thaksin, to block Move Forward from the outside.

But distrust of Mr Thaksin did not end.

The unspoken condition of his return, and the royal pardon granted by King Vajiralongkorn, was that he would keep a low profile and, as he had promised in exile, spend time with his grandchildren.

Officially Mr Thaksin is not even a member of Pheu Thai. But even in exile Mr Thaksin always interfered, often to the detriment of his party. He is still thought to be a major financial backer of Pheu Thai. And since he was paroled earlier this year he has been seen and speaking at party events.

Others have accused Mr Thaksin of pushing Mr Srettha’s cabinet to appoint a lawyer who was convicted in 2008 of trying to bribe a high court judge with a shopping bag full of money.

At that time, the judge was about to issue a verdict in the criminal case against Mr Thaksin.

On Wednesday the constitutional court, known for repeating its ruling against the Shinawatra clan, found that the appointment was unethical and sufficient grounds to dismiss Mr Srettha. The decision is being interpreted in Thailand as a warning to Mr Thaksin to control his ambitions.

He was also charged with lese majeste earlier this year, in connection with comments he made nine years ago in exile – a charge that could have serious consequences that could hang over him for years.

All this makes Ms. Paetongtarn’s job even more difficult. Pheu Thai’s past success has been built on its reputation for driving the economy, and improving the quality of life of poor Thai people.

But Thailand’s economy is now being held back by long-term structural challenges – and is no longer responding to the populist approaches attempted by previous Shinawatra-led governments.

The party’s signature policy in the last election – a one-time payment of 10,000 baht ($284; £221) in a digital wallet to almost all Thais – has met with opposition from the central bank and others because of its cost to public purses.

The party has little else in its policy portfolio to boost its political fortunes in the next three years. It will also face persistent and effective opposition from the revolutionary Movement Forward, which has now been reconstituted as a party The People’s Party, after the disbandment by the constitutional court last week.

And Pheu Thai finds itself in the mix where for the first time its seat share is less than half. Its conservative political allies also have little motivation to see the Pheu Thai-led administration achieve enough success to begin rebuilding its once-supportive base among voters.

All four of the last Shinawatra-led governments were ousted before the end of their elected terms by constitutional court decisions or military coups.

Ms Paetongtarn will be hoping to break that record, but given the ongoing turmoil in Thailand’s politics, the chances don’t look good.