Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s brutal summer ends with his exit

It’s been a brutal summer for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

A series of scandals involving the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), those closest to Mr Kishida and even his family have put his career on the line.

That this was happening as the cost of living was rising and discontent was brewing within the LDP did not help the embattled leader.

His approval ratings have plummeted. Out of all this came a test – a party leadership contest that was expected to take place in September.

Some observers said that he will fight for another term but it was not a big shock while announcing that he was bowing out of the party presidential race – means he will not be prime minister in September when the LDP elects a new leader.

His diplomatic achievements – an ambitious military expansion budget, deepening ties with the US and a historic détente with South Korea – could not save him.

“The first obvious step to show that the LDP will change is for me to step aside,” the 67-year-old told a packed room of reporters on Wednesday in his usual unflappable manner.

Apart from his words, everything else about him suggested that it was business as usual.

A veteran politician, Fumio Kishida took office in 2021. His predecessor Yoshihide Suga had resigned after just a year in office, following poor approval ratings as Japan grappled with one of its worst Covid waves.

A month into his tenure as Prime Minister, Mr Kishida led the LDP in the general election and became head of the winning coalition.

Those who know him well – and have worked with him – tell the BBC that he is a decent and intelligent man, and a no-nonsense politician. Some say he is a seasoned strategist, not to be written off easily.

Mr. Kishida’s gentle style belies the fact that he can be unpredictable and stubborn. Take, for example, his risky but quick decision to disband his party, which led to the disbanding of others – these factions, as old as the party itself, are an important source of funding and money.

For months, observers had argued that his position was inappropriate, in part because of the indecisiveness with which he handled the controversies surrounding him. He held on, even as dissension grew within the ranks of the LDP. But the writing was on the wall.

“People are very tired now,” said Hiromi Murakami, a political science professor at Japan’s Temple University, a few weeks before Mr Kishida decided to step down. “It’s piling up. It’s not just a fundraising scandal.”

The LDP started the year full of controversy. In December, four cabinet ministers, including the prime minister’s aides, and several junior ministers resigned over allegations that LDP leaders funneled millions of dollars into the party’s coffers.

An investigation by public prosecutors revealed other details, and the LDP concluded that 85 of its members failed to properly report their income.

This is the latest in a series of scandals that have dogged his time: last year, he fired his son who was employed as his chief secretary after it emerged that he misused his position to hold an event at the prime minister’s residence. .

And the LDP was already reeling from headlines about its links to the controversial Unification Church linked to the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

As 2024 progresses, so will the fall of all these scandals. And there were new ones.

In April, the LDP lost two seats in a by-election when party members resigned – one accused of vote-buying, and another implicated in a fund-raising investigation.

In July, the Department of Defense was rocked by allegations of mishandling classified and sensitive information, abuse of subordinates and fraud. A series of disciplinary actions, suspensions and even expulsions followed.

By this time, the LDP’s approval ratings had hit rock bottom – 19%, the lowest since 2000, according to a survey by the daily Asahi Shimbun.

Mr. Kishida vowed to deal with this problem “head on”, but the way he handled it was criticized.

It was a rare appearance before the political ethics committee, but he seemed uncertain and reluctant to say much.

In June, his coalition introduced changes to the financing of elections, but met with public skepticism. “Nothing came of it even though they spent a lot of time on it. It’s too late, he should have done something earlier,” said Prof Murakami.

Also in June, he tried to appease disgruntled voters and soften the impact of inflation with a temporary tax relief package. But people don’t seem to think that went far enough.

“It has been intense… I have faced many problems at home and abroad,” is how Mr Kishida assessed his tenure at the end of June, when he reached the 1,000-day mark.

In June there was also talk of “post-Kishida” candidates – echoed in the national media – as disgruntled party colleagues feared there would be an unpopular leader in the PM ahead of next year’s general election.

“[They] imagine if he is in the carriage, they get off. They are in a state of panic,” Jeff Kingston, a professor of Asian studies and history at Temple University, told the BBC at the time.

Although there have been many corruption scandals in the past, this latest one has come at a sad time.

“The economic situation had an impact on people’s thinking,” said Prof Murakami. “People were very traumatized [Covid] disaster. They don’t pay their bills. But now [they see] politicians with huge sums of money who will not pay tax” – referring to the LDP’s admission that some members of Parliament had not properly reported their income.

Although his popularity at home is a nose dive, Mr Kishida has done well internationally. He was Japan’s long-serving foreign minister before becoming prime minister. As Prime Minister, he hosted the G7 summit last year, visited Ukraine and cut ties with South Korea, a key ally against China and North Korea.

Relations with Washington are as strong as ever. He spoke to Congress earlier this year at the invitation of President Biden — and he was welcome.

He told his audience: “Thank you.” “I have never received such a wonderful applause from the Japanese Diet [parliament].

Back home, the Japanese press has been impressed by the visit, with one headline saying “Kishida should not use this conference as a tool for domestic politics”.

If that was the intention, he failed. Mr Kishida was fraught with infighting on many fronts – and his party and voters were losing patience.

“People vote on pocketbook issues,” Prof Kingston said. “It’s good that it’s around NATO, the EU … and the United States. At the end of the day, I want to see more pay in my pocket.”

Mr Kishida said the LDP needed a fresh start – and needed to convince the Japanese people that it could change.

The opposition is still too weak and divided to be a viable option, but there is a lot of distrust in the ruling party.

Can a different face at the top unite the Liberal Democratic Party and fix its bad image? September will tell.