Federal forecasters are still predicting a strong Atlantic hurricane season due to near-record ocean temperatures and the possibility of La Niña, officials said Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Hurricane Administration’s updated outlook said atmospheric and ocean conditions have set the stage for a hurricane season that could be among the busiest on record.
“The hurricane season got off to a quick and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the first-ever category-1 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane season outlook is an important reminder that the peak of the hurricane season is just around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”
Not much has changed from the forecasts released in May. Forecasters have changed the number of expected named storms from 17 to 25 to 17 to 24. Of those named storms, 8 to 13 are still possible as hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 75 mph (121 kph), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes. at least 111 mph (179 kph) winds.
The typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of which are hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The updated outlook includes two tropical storms and two hurricanes already formed this year. The latest storm, Hurricane Debby, hit Florida’s Gulf Coast on Monday and was still moving through the Carolinas as a tropical storm on Thursday.
Hurricane names are chosen from a six-letter rotating list of 21 names, maintained by the World Meteorological Organization, skipping the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z because there are not many common names beginning with those letters. The names change from year to year and alternate between male and female names. The names of major storms have been discontinued and are being changed.
Beginning with the 2021 hurricane season, an additional list of names has been created for seasons with more than 21 named hurricanes. Before that, hurricanes were named after Greek letters, which occurred in 2005 and 2020.
When meteorologists look at how busy the hurricane season is, two factors are most important: the temperature of the Atlantic ocean where hurricanes form and need warm water to develop, and whether there is a La Nina or El Nino, cooling or warming of the environment and the seasons certain ones. of the waters of the Pacific Ocean change the climate around the world. La Nina tends to charge Atlantic storm activity while tropical storms in the Pacific and El Nino do the opposite.
La Nina tends to reduce the maximum winds capable of forming hurricanes, and often during La Nina there is more instability or turbulence in the atmosphere, which can lead to hurricane development. Hurricanes get their energy from warm water. El Nino, which contributed to record warm sea temperatures for a year, ended in June, and forecasters expect La Nina to emerge sometime between September and November. That may extend into the hurricane season, which typically runs from mid-August to mid-October.
Even during the last El Nino season, which usually suppresses hurricanes, the warm waters still lead to an above-average hurricane season. Last year there were 20 named hurricanes, the fourth most since 1950 and 14 more than average. The overall average strength, duration and frequency of hurricanes last season was 17% greater than normal.
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